Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KGYX 182022 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 322 PM EST Thu Jan 18 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A weak front will lift northeast across the area late tonight and early Friday with clouds and a few snow showers. A milder flow and above normal temperatures follow late Friday into the upcoming weekend. A storm system may will likely affect the region early next week with mixed precipitation and rain.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A fairly strong short wave trough over the Great Lakes states as of 20z will continue to move eastward tonight and cross the region late tonight into early Friday. The airmass in advance of this short wave is quite dry so we do not expect much in the way of precipitation with it. However, we do think that forcing will be strong enough to allow for a band of snow showers to cross the region late tonight into early Friday morning. There could be a coating in spots, perhaps even as far east as the coastal plain. The best chance will be across northern NH. The passage of this short wave trough and possible attendant snow showers would be roughly between 09z and 13z. In the meantime, mostly clear skies downwind of the mountains will continue into this evening before clouds increase after midnight. Across Coos County NH northeastward into the western ME mountains, stratocu and sct snow showers should continue well into the evening hours.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Any snow showers will quickly end early Friday morning followed by partly sunny skies (there will be periods of clouds with ample 850mb moisture around) with highs about 5 degrees warmer than Thursday. The warm air advection regime continues Friday night as a southwesterly low level jet strengthens. It should however remain dry in most locations, except for the far northern zones where snow showers will be possible.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Scattered showers and mixed cloud cover will continue into the weekend for the region, mainly in the mountains. A positively tilting and shearing out system moving through central Quebec will push a cold front into northern sections on Sunday. Ahead of the front timing will cause high temperatures to occur early during the day Sunday for northern sections, with highs occurring in the afternoon for the central and southern zones. Some warming into the 40s is likely for a few spots in SW flow ahead of the front over southern NH/SW ME, but models have trended cooler with time. Ensemble members are continuing to show very cold air arriving for the border towns of northern NH and Maine during the evening Sunday and into Monday, with temps early Monday morning in the single digits for the immediate border area. The wedge of cold air will dam along the mountains and foothills with teens and 20s most other spots. On Monday and even into Monday night the cold wedge will moderate quite a bit but we will be much closer to normal values. Monday night into Tuesday a large closed low will eject out of the Great Lakes region. Warm air advection spreading over the colder air at the surface may initially bring some light mixed precipitation to the region before changing over to primarily a snow/rain event. On Tuesday increasing southerly flow/temperatures will change precipitation over to rain for a portion of the interior as well.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Short Term /through Friday night/...Mainly VFR tonight through Friday night. However, a period of MVFR conditions are possible between 09z and 13z tonight. At HIE, MVFR conditions will be more prevalent this evening into tonight. Long Term...Possible MVFR conditions Saturday into Sunday with scattered snow showers across northern areas...mainly affecting HIE...otherwise VFR during this time period. Ceilings and visibilities will be lowering Monday night into Tuesday as low pressure forms along the Mid Atlantic region and moves north. SW to W winds will gust to near 20 knots or so Saturday before decreasing. Gusty SE/S winds are expected Tuesday.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Short Term /through Friday night/...Expect winds and seas to remain below SCA thresholds through Friday. However, winds are expected to increase Friday night as low pressure passes by to the north. SCA will likely be needed for later Friday night. Long Term...Gusty southwesterly winds becoming westerly by Saturday with speeds diminishing by the afternoon after being at high SCA/to borderline gale levels for the outer waters. Waves also decrease from west to east to less than 5 ft by evening. Strong gale force winds may develop next Tuesday into Wednesday as low pressure develops to our west. Winds drop closer to SCA criteria for Thursday and Friday.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .HYDROLOGY... River flood warning for the Kennebec continues as the river fluctuates near flood stage because of tidal influence near the ice jam. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Ekster SHORT TERM...Ekster LONG TERM...Hanes

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.