Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 250749 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 349 AM EDT Sun Sep 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure moving out of Canada will bring cooler temperatures and drier air to the region through tonight. Most towns in the area will see their first frost or freezing temperatures tonight. Gradually moderating temperatures are expected Monday before another approaching cold front brings the threat for showers for Monday night and Tuesday. Drier weather returns for midweek. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... Current freeze warnings and frost advisories will expire at 8 am this morning. Whitefield NH currently has the coldest reported temp with 31, but expect many valley locations will have dropped to or below freezing by morning. As the area of high pressure continues to push into the region today, skies will be mostly sunny with late morning and afternoon fair weather cumulus. In eastern sections, there will be some mid to high level clouds dropping southeast on the back side of the upper level trough. High temps today will range from the mid 50s north to the mid 60s south. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... The ridge of high pressure moves overhead tonight and temps will drop rapidly as the winds diminish. Currently expecting freezing temperatures across northern sections and widespread frost across much of the area. Low temps tonight will likely drop to the mid 20s in the colder locations in the mountains and will range to near 40 along the immediate coast. Will be allowing current freeze warnings and frost advisories to expire this morning and allow the day shift to issues new warnings and advisories for tonight. The high moves east Monday allowing slightly warmer temps. A cold front approaching from the west will start to spread high clouds into western sections during Monday afternoon. After a cold start tomorrow morning, highs will be mainly in the 60s across the area. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Deterministic models are coming more in line as far as least early on in the extended. There is still much uncertainty after Thursday. Whether rain showers reach our area will depend on if the 1025mb Canadian high pressure can suppress a baroclinic zone as it attempts to move north. In the dailies, a coastal low develops Tuesday night and ejects towards the Canadian maritimes. The upper low located over the Great Lakes begins to fill and drifts south, eventually spinning towards the mid Atlantic region and stalling do to blocking downstream. Offshore...the front which moved through Tuesday night will linger. This is a low confidence forecast from Thursday onward. Wednesday and part of Thursday look dry for the most part as dense Canadian high pressure spills across the Central Plains and into the northeast. Clouds will return Thursday after clearing out behind the cold front. Rain showers may also return on Thursday especially over the south and remain in the forecast through Saturday. Have kept PoPs generally on the low side during this time until there is more agreement among the guidance. There will be a cooling trend during this time with highs ranging from the upper 50s north to near 70s south. Overnight lows will be warmer so not expecting any more freezes after Monday morning. && .AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Short Term...VFR conditions expected except for patchy early morning fog in the Connecticut River Valley and patchy freezing fog in the northern river valleys this morning and again Monday morning. Long Term...MVFR or IFR conditions in showers (which may be heavy at times) will occur Tuesday as a cold front and possibly a coastal low develop and sweep east. Low level moisture may remain trapped under an inversion and cause patchy fog Wednesday morning before skies lift. Morning fog will again be possible at LEB and HIE Thursday morning. && .MARINE... Short Term...Winds and seas expected to generally be below SCA criteria, although a few gusts could reach near 25 kts this afternoon and seas may approach 5 feet well offshore. Long Term...Prolonged southerly fetch over the waters may push wave heights into the 5-6 ft range with a few gusts over 25 kts. Should see conditions calm down again on Wednesday with high pressure moving toward the area. There is a high degree of uncertainty in the forecast from Thursday onward with winds generally from the NNE at 10 to 15 KT the most likely result. It is possible that low pressure could form over the waters Tuesday night bringing more of an southerly component to the winds and perhaps some stronger wind speeds and higher wave heights. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...Freeze Warning until 8 AM EDT this morning for MEZ007-008. Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for MEZ009-012-013. NH...Freeze Warning until 8 AM EDT this morning for NHZ001-002. Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for NHZ003-004. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Jensenius SHORT TERM...Jensenius LONG TERM...Hanes AVIATION...Hanes/Jensenius MARINE...Hanes/Jensenius is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.