Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Portland, ME
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000
FXUS61 KGYX 150752
AFDGYX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
352 AM EDT Fri Mar 15 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
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A wave of low pressure moves across New England today, bringing
mostly rain with mountain snow. Drier weather briefly returns
for Saturday before another system moves into the region for
Saturday night into Sunday. Temperatures look to progressively
cool off starting next week with mostly dry weather outside of
the mountains along with breezy conditions.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
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Sfc low approaching from the W early this AM and will cross S
NH this morning and move into the Gulf of ME this afternoon,
eventually reaching south of NS this evening. While 500 MB wave
is weak and in zonal flow, there is good mid level convergence
and FG as deepening 500 MB closed low crosses the CWA, and is
coincident with decent jet dynamics and divergence, so good
combined forcing for ascent through the morning anyway. Precip
intensity will bring some snow into the mtn valleys, where up to
2” is possible, with greater accumulations above 2K ft or so.
Across the foothills could see an inch or so in some areas, but
will likely be more on unpaved surfaces as roads are fairly
warm, and could just see some slush. Further south from Fryeburg
to N of the L-A area and N of Augusta, may see a coating on
unpaved areas, but roads should be hard-pressed for much accums
unless the precip becomes intense for for more than a short
period. It’ll be rain S of the these in ME and across the
southern half of NH. The steadier rain will end by midday to
early afternoon, with just some showers across ME in the
afternoon, and these will end before sunset. With ENE flow
shifting to N late and OVC skies highs will be limited to 40-45
across the CWA.-- End Changed Discussion --
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.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Tonight, the flow shifts NNW, but will be light at the sfc.
Still will be enough to get some upslope SHSN going in the mtns,
but additional accums will be limited to the higher terrain
there. Otherwise, low level may be hard to clear given light sfc
flow and patchy fog is expected, especially those places that
show some partial clearing late. Lows range from the upper 20s
in the mtns to the low to mid 30s in the S.
Saturday looks like a nice break with partly to mostly sunny
conditions in the S, and partly to mostly cloud in the mtns, but
should be mainly dry and warmer with highs mid 40s in the mtns,
50-55 in central and SW ME, and in the mid to upper 50s in
interior S NH.-- End Changed Discussion --
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.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Saturday night starts on a dry note, but an upper trough and
cold front will approach from the west late and bring a quick
round or precip to the region. Latest 00Z guidance has come into
better agreement than this time yesterday with precip entering
NH and the western ME mountains generally after midnight and
then overspreading areas to the south and east through the rest
of the night and morning hours Sunday. Precip type will be
primarily rain again with snow possible in the mountains with
models continuing to advertise QPF of around 0.25" with this
activity. This batch of precip will shift east of the area by
early afternoon along with the cold front and will be followed
good mixing and breezy conditions of 25 to 30 mph. Steep lapse
rates from the good mixing will also result in some instability,
especially the NAM solution, and since we`ll still be under the
influence of an upper low across SE Quebec, expect additional
rain showers (snow showers in the mountains) to develop in the
afternoon with a few possibly producing graupel with cold
temperatures aloft. These will diminish toward sunset, but there
will probably be upslope snow showers in the mountains through
the night.
The upper low moves slowly eastward on Monday with another
shortwave trough expected to move through in the afternoon.
Forecast soundings showing a well-mixed environment once again
(but not quite as breezy) with enough instability for diurnal
showers to develop with the lift from the trough while the
mountains see an uptick in snow shower activity. Cold temps
aloft could again allow some showers to produce graupel. High
temperatures will be cooler than Sunday but still in the 40s.
Stacked low pressure then more or less hangs out over the
Canadian Maritimes Tuesday through Thursday, keeping New England
in a northwest flow pattern. This will keep ongoing chances for
upslope snow showers in the mountains with generally dry
conditions elsewhere, although we may end up seeing a brief wave
or two in the northwest flow to bring a some light precip
elsewhere. Forecast soundings indicate we`ll be well-mixed and
on the breezy side each day as the higher winds aloft are
brought down to the surface. High temperatures will be slightly
cooler during this stretch with upper 30s to low 40s Tues-Thurs,
possibly mid 40s for southern NH.-- End Changed Discussion --
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.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Short Term...IFR or lower at all terminals through much of the
day, although KHIE in downslope E flow will likely not fall
below MVFR. There will be some improvement at all terminals this
evening to MVFR, and maybe to VFR late at NH terminals, but fog
could push things back to IFR at ME terminals after midnight.
All terminals should see VFR on Sat.
Long Term...A quick-moving system will bring a brief period of
precipitation and flight restrictions to the region late
Saturday night through early Sunday afternoon. MVFR ceilings are
likely, possibly IFR at times, along with reductions in
visibility. Rain is expected to be the dominant precip type,
although light snow may be seen at HIE and possibly AUG. All
sites are expected to return to VFR by late Sunday morning or
early afternoon, but additional showers could develop in the
afternoon, potentially bringing brief periods of MVFR/IFR
conditions should they pass over any terminal. Mostly VFR
Monday and Tuesday, except HIE may see MVFR ceilings and rain or
snow showers from time to time. A few rain showers may also
develop south of the mountains Monday afternoon and could
produce brief restrictions. For winds, gusts out of the west of
25 kt are possible Sunday afternoon and then out of the W/NW
20-25 kt Monday and Tuesday.-- End Changed Discussion --
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.MARINE...
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Short Term...NE winds pick up this morning as sfc low pass just
S of the waters, and this will push gusts up to 25 kts for a few
hours this afternoon, mainly in the open waters SW of Pen Bay.
As the low quickly exits late today, winds will diminish this
evening becoming light after midnight and switching NW. Sea
breeze circulation develops Sat afternoon with S-SE flow near
the shore.
Long Term...A cold front will cross the waters on Sunday, and out
ahead of it, southerly wind gusts could reach SCA levels from
Saturday night into the afternoon. Once the front passes, wind will
shift to the west through Sunday night before becoming more W/NW
Monday night. Low pressure is expected to remain over the Canadian
Maritimes through the middle of next week, resulting in W to NW
winds continuing across the waters. Gusts could continue to reach
SCA levels at times next week.-- End Changed Discussion --
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.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT this
evening for ANZ152-154.-- End Changed Discussion --
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$$
NEAR TERM...Cempa
SHORT TERM...Cempa
LONG TERM...Combs