Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 151425 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 1025 AM EDT Sun Oct 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front crosses the region this morning allowing a warmer and increasingly moist southwest flow to develop over the area. Low pressure will track east through southern Canada later today driving a trailing cold front through the region tonight. Canadian high pressure with cooler and dry weather follows for Monday into Tuesday. A large ridge of high pressure builds across the eastern U.S. allowing a warm dry southwest flow to return for the last half of the week and quite possibly into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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10am... will allow the Dense Fog advisory to expire as scheduled. As of 13Z a few pockets of 1/4SM visibility remain but generally the trend is upwards in both ceiling and visibility. Looking at the morning sounding and forecast profiles have adjusted wind gusts upwards just a touch for the afternoon. There is certainly potential for gusts to 30mph to work their way down to the surface but will need the daytime heating or additional time with the low level jet forcing to erode the lower stable layer to get the gusts down to the surface. 635 am...Forecast in decent shape early this AM as just a few light showers skirt the intl border this morning, and there will be threat for showers in this area thru the morning. Otherwise, the dense fog is expanding a little further than inland from earlier this morning, but not enough to expand the advisory, as it looks more patchy as you move toward the foothills. Its also starting to show signs of thinning a bit at times even in the advisory area. It will take a while to diminish this morning, but may be able to drop the advisory by 9 instead of 10. Previously...Warm front will track NE across the CWA this morning, although only threat for showers will be across far nrn zones. The day will start off cloudy withe fog. Dense fog advisory has been issued for SE NH and the coastal plain of ME into mid- morning. Most ons sites in this region showing a quarter to half mile in vsby, and flow will remain light until the winds shift behind the warm front during the morning. Once the warm front does go through should S-SW winds pick up and skies clear out, at least partially. This will happen first in S and W NH and should clear all but the mid-coast by midday into early afternoon. Look for breezy conditions this afternoon, with winds 10-20 mph and some gusts to 25-30 mph, esecially along the coast and over the higher terrain /where some gusts of 35-40 mph or higher may be seen this afternoon/. Highs today will be a product of how quickly the warm sector mixes down and will range from the mid- upper 70s in southern NH and the CT valley to the upper 60s to 70 in central ME and the mid-coast. Coolest near the beaches. For the most part, any showers moving in from the west will hold off until sunset.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... Cold front approaches from the west and should begin to cross the CWA this evening. The surge of southerly winds will occur just ahead of the front, so some of the strongest gusts could be from sunset into the early to mid evening. This will also keep temps from falling much this evening as well. Showers should move into the western zones and cross the mountains this evening as well, but they fall apart as best forcing shunts N and E tonight, so there is only a slight chc for showers on the coastal plain and in srn NH. The front should clear the CWA around or shorty after midnight, and winds shift to WNW, should temps fall quickly behind the front and despite a warm evening, morning lows Monday will drop into the low 40s to low 50s from N to S. On Monday, CAA will continue through the day, which will be counteracted by downslope S and E of the mtns and foothills. So temps will rebound on Monday, but only a little with highs ranging from the upper 40s in the mountains to around 60 on the coast and in srn NH. Will likely see m/cdy skies in the mtns with a few showers possible, and mostly to partly sunny skies elsewhere, as the day may start off sunny, but some stratocu should develop, although the downslope will limit this somewhat. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... The models remain in decent agreement on the long wave pattern through late next weekend. We begin the period with an upper trough contributing to a few lingering upslope clouds before sweeping offshore early Tuesday. A ridge of high pressure briefly follows for Tuesday. A shortwave impulse will cross eastern Canada and northern New England late Tuesday and Tuesday night with an associated cold front bringing a few clouds and scattered showers mainly to mountain sections of the forecast area. Ridging and a low amplitude flow will bring fair weather and a warming trend for the second half of the work week and into the upcoming weekend. The only fly in the ointment will be a weak moisture starved front. This boundary will briefly sag southward into the area Thursday night with a few clouds before returning north as a warm front on Friday. With mean jet position and cold air remaining largely to our north and west this period...we`ll see a continuation of above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation. && .AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Short Term...Fog has settled across coastal terminals and KAUG/KMHT/KCON. KRKD has not fogged yet, but should by sunrise, and they will likely be stuck at IFR through most of the day. The other terminals should see improvement to VFR by mid-late morning. S winds pick up this afternoon, and will likely gust to around 20 kts or so this afternoon into this evening. VFR should persist tonight through Monday. Long Term... Tue Night...Isold MVFR psb in Mtn -shra. && .MARINE... Short Term...SCA conditions will develop this afternoon as S winds increase. The winds will likely peak this evening, and could see a few gusts approaching gales at this time. A cold front will cross the waters and winds will shift to W, and eventually NW on Monday, with SCA gusts outside of the bays. Long Term... Wed...Small craft conditions are possible outside the bays. Thu...Small craft conditions are possible bays and open waters. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Monday for ANZ150>154.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...Curtis SHORT TERM...Cempa LONG TERM...Schwibs AVIATION... MARINE...

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