Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 171850 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 250 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BUT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS OF THE UPPER LOW IS NOW OVERHEAD. DRIER AIR IS ON THE CUSP OF MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. CLOUDS WILL ERODE SLOWLY FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...BUT MUCH OF THE NORTH AND EAST WILL REMAIN BLANKETED AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION. HIGHS TODAY ONLY REACHED THE LOWER 60S TO LOWER 70S AND WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 50S TO UPPER 50S AREAWIDE OVERNIGHT. LIGHT UPSLOPE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH WHILE PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE...MAINLY IN VALLEYS AND BRIEFLY ALONG THE COAST. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... MONDAY WILL SEE THE RETURN OF SUNSHINE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT WARMER ACROSS THE NORTH UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH MID 70S ACROSS THE SOUTH. DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN AS WELL MAKING FOR A NICE DRY DAY. NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE IN NW FLOW ALOFT WHICH WILL KEEP THE JET STREAM AND CIRRUS CLOUDS AROUND. LOOKING AT A MUCH COOLER NIGHT MONDAY AS THE DRIER COOLER AIRMASS WILL HAVE ESTABLISHED ITSELF BY THIS POINT. SOME LOWER 40S ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...WITH MID 40S REACHING FRYEBURG...SANFORD...AND OTHER FAVORED COOL SPOTS. OTHER LOCATIONS CAN EXPECT MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SURFACE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES DRIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE FOCUS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO OUR SOUTHWEST. AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND BRING INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN EVOLVING BLOCKING PATTERN AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES BUT ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON ORIENTATION AND FLOW AROUND THE BLOCK. THIS RESULTS IN CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS WE APPROACH THE END OF THE WEEK. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HOWEVER...IF THE OCEAN LOW THAT THE MODELS ARE INDICATING BECOMES SUFFICIENTLY STRONG...IT WILL PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ANY PRECIPITATION BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHORT TERM...LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/LIGHT SHOWERS MAY KEEP MVFR CEILINGS IN PLACE AT KHIE AND POSSIBLY KLEB. WEST WINDS WILL HELP SCOUR OUT MOISTURE SOMEWHAT BUT KAUG...KRKD...KLEB AND KHIE WILL LIKELY SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR TO EVEN IFR VISIBILITIES OVERNIGHT. WEST TO NORTH WINDS ARRIVE BY MORNING LIFTING CEILINGS. LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...EXCEPT FOR IFR CONDITIONS IN AREAS OF MORNING FOG. MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH SATURDAY. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ HANES/JENSENIUS

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