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000
FXUS61 KGYX 200431
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1231 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
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A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT PRODUCING SHOWERS.
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WORKS IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR MONDAY.
THE FRONT WILL SHIFT BACK SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT AS COOLER AND DRIER
AIR MOVES IN. THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AND COULD BRING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF WET
WEATHER. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE
REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...

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1225 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO ADJUST 1ST PERIOD GRIDS BASED ON
RADAR TRENDS AS WELL AS MESONET.

PREV DISC...
1030 PM...NO SIGNIF FORECAST CHANGES FOR THE
OVERNIGHT...JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT
OBS. SHRA STILL ON TRACK TO ARRIVE FROM W TO E BETWEEN THE PRE-
DAWN HOURS AND LATE MON MORNING. WE SHOULD BE NEAR OR AT OUR MINS
LATE THIS EVE...AND THEN STEADY OR A DEGREE OR TWO RISE IN TEMPS
EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
THE SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT EXITS TO THE E IN THE MRNG BRINGING WITH
IT AN END TO THE SHWRS. THE AFTN SHOULD REMAIN PRIMARILY DRY AND
MILD BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW AFTN INSTBLTY SHWRS AS A VERY WEAK
FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE N. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT MON NIGHT
AND WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE THAT WILL REMAIN...SO NO CLEARING
EXPECTED. PATCHY FOG ONCE AGAIN MAY DEVELOP IN SOME AREAS MON
NIGHT DUE TO LACK OF ANY LOW LEVEL VENTILATION. RFC QPF WAS USED
FOR MON WITH HIGHEST QPF AMTS OVER NRNMOST AREAS BUT STILL ALL
AREAS REMAIN UNDER .25 INCHES. STAYED CLOSE TO MAV GUID FOR
MAX/MINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS A
STALLED FRONT WITH AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT WILL
DOMINATE THE WEATHER. USED ECMWF FOR TIMING OF SYSTEMS. THIS RESULTS
IN ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH
MORE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SOME CONVECTION. BEHIND THIS LOW A COOL NW
FLOW WILL DEVELOP. THIS WILL DRY OUT MOST AREAS ALTHOUGH SOME UP
SLOPE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE ARE POSSIBLE OVER COASTAL AND MARINE
AREAS LATER TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS AN ONSHORE FLOW
ESTABLISHES ITSELF.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MVFR TO IFR CONDS WILL SPREAD FROM S-N TONIGHT IN
DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
WARM FRONT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUES MORNING
BEFORE IMPROVING BY AFTERNOON TO VFR CONDS AS THE WARM FRONT EXITS
TO THE EAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER MON NIGHT SO PATCHY
FOG EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP PSBLY LOWERING CONDS TO IFR.

LONG TERM...
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TUE-THU. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS
EXPECTED FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...A WEAK SFC AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE WATERS TONIGHT ALLOWING AN INCREASING SELY FLOW TO DVLP AND
SLOWLY BUILD THE SEAS, SO A SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR 5AM-3PM
MONDAY. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT MONDAY, A WEAK
VARIABLE FLOW WILL DEVELOP ALLOWING WINDS/SEAS TO DIMINISH LATE
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.


LONG TERM...
WIND AND WAVES MAY REACH SCA LEVELS THU INTO FRI AS LOW PRESSURE
AND A COLD FRONT CROSS THE REGION.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WITH THE THREAT OF SHRA AND HIGHER RH VALUES ALONG WITH GREEN UP
CONTINUING TO OCCUR. EXPECT FIRE WX DANGER TO BE LOW THRU THE WEEK.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 3 PM EDT
     THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ150-152-154.
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&&

$$
ES