Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 220348 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 1048 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS... COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES WEST ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC LATE SAT AND SAT NIGHT...AND COULD SET OFF A FEW SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. WARMER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM ON SUNDAY. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREAS MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF MAINLY RAIN TO THE REGION. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY. A SERIES OF COASTAL LOWS WILL TRACK OFFSHORE DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK HOLIDAY PERIOD, AND COULD BRING SOME RAIN OR SNOW TO COASTAL AREAS DURING THE THIS TIME. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... 1045 PM UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST. CONTINUED MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLD TONIGHT WITH GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WINDS. CLOUDS WILL BE A LITTLE MORE PREVALENT IN NORTHERN NH AND THE ADJACENT WESTERN ME MOUNTAINS. 610 PM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE LATEST FORECAST. JUST A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS...WIND...AND SKY BASED ON LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA. OVERALL...A COLD NIGHT! PREVIOUSLY... COLD AIR HAS MOVED INTO THE REGION TOADY. THE MOUNTAINS SAW A FEW SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EVENING... BEFORE DECREASING OFF OVERNIGHT AS A SURFACE INVERSION SETS UP. THE FEW CLOUDS IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL DISSIPATE AT SUNSET ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP RAPIDLY THROUGH THE EVENING WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE MOUNTAINS. WHILE GUIDANCE SUGGEST TEMPS ABOVE ZERO... WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW LOCATIONS RADIATE OUT TO BELOW ZERO AND HAVE LEANED ON THE COLDER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... SATURDAY WILL SEE THE COLD AIR BEGIN TO MOVE OUT AS A HIGH BUILDS IN TO OUR SOUTH. THIS WILL TURN FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST BY MIDDAY... ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE TO THE MID 30S. WITH THE WARMER AIR COMES SOME MOISTURE ... RESULTING IN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BY MID AFTERNOON. A VERY WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL PASS BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS...WHICH MAY RESULT IN POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN IN COLDER VALLEYS OF WESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. WHILE THE TEMPERATURE STRUCTURE SUPPORTS SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN, THERE IS VERY LIMITED MOISTURE SO SIGNIFICANT ICING IS NOT A THREAT. OVERALL EXPECT A WINTER MIX IN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE MOUNTAINS BEFORE SUNDAY WHEN TEMPERATURES WARM WELL BEYOND THE FREEZING POINT RESULTING IN A SWITCH TO RAIN SHOWERS. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE WEAKLY AMPLIFIED 500MB EARLY IN THE LONG RANGE EVENTUALLY BECOMES SOMEWHAT MORE AMPLIFIED THROUGH THE WEEK...BUT THE MOST SIGNIFICANT BLOCKING SHIFTS FROM THE PACIFIC TO THE ERN ATLANTIC AND EUROPE. THIS WILL LEAD TO A MORE UNSTABLE PATTERN WITH SMALLER...BUT MORE FREQUENT WAVES ALOFT...AND WILL SHIFT THE COLDEST AIR BACK OVER NOAM BACK POLEWARD. THEREFORE EXPECT THE HOLIDAY WEEK TO BE WARMER OVERALL...BUT CHANGEABLE. SUNDAY WE WILL SEE WINDS SHIFT TO SW WITH P/SUNNY SKIES AND DAYTIME HIGHS ABV NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50. THE NEXT CHC OF PRECIP ARRIVES SUN NIGHT AS 500MB TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE CONUS SUN NIGHT AND LIFTS NE MON-TUE. THIS WILL ENHANCE DEP LYR SW FLOW...AND WILL BRING S A BOUT OF WAA PRECIP TO THE AREA LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING. TEMPS SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH THAT MOST PLACES WILL SEE JUST RAIN...BUT...LATE SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON MORNING COULD SEE SOME AREAS OF PL/FZRA...MAINLY IN THE SHELTERED MTN VLYS. BY MON MORNING...EVERYWHERE IS EXPECTED TO GO TO RAIN. ITS LKLY THAT SKIES REMAIN M/CDY AS WARM SECTOR STAYS ALOFT WITH MARINE LYR IN PLACE NEAR THE SFC...BUT STILL THIS WILL PUSH TEMPS INTO 50S IN MANY SPOTS. ANY SUBSTANTIAL BREAKS OF SUN COULD PUSH TEMPS SOMEWHAT HIGHER. THE COLD FRONT DOESN`T REALLY CROSS THE REGION UNTIL LATE MON NIGHT OR TUE...SO SHOULD BE MILD MON NIGHT WITH A CHC OF SHOWERS. THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH BY TUE EVENING...BUT WILL STILL BE ON THE WARMER SIDE TUE WITH HIGHS IN THE OW 40S TO LOW 50S. SEVERAL WAVES OF ENERGY FEED INTO THE 500MB TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NOAM WED-FRI...WHICH WILL HOLD IT IN PLACE TO OUR WEST. AS THIS WAVES ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND HEAD NE...THEY WILL PRODUCE SEVERAL COASTAL LOWS THAT WILL TRACK OFFSHORE. 12Z MODELS SUGGEST GLANCING BLOWS AND POSSIBLE LIGHT PRECIP FOR OUR COASTAL AREAS LATE WED AGAIN ON FRIDAY....WITH A BREAK ON THANKSGIVING. HAVE ADDED CHC POPS FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN WED AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...WITH P-TYPE UNCERTAIN ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...BUT LKLY SNOW A BIT FURTHER INLAND...IF PRECIP MAKES IT THAT FAR. FRIDAY SYSTEM LOOKS TO STAY FURTHER OFFSHORE...BUT STILL WAY TOO EARLY FOR MUCH CONFIDENCE. && .AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SHORT TERM... DECREASING WINDS TONIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE BUT HIE WHERE SOME MVFR SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY MORNING. LONG TERM...A PERIOD OF IFR OR LOWER IS EXPECTED IN RA/STRATUS SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN RA/SN AT COASTAL TERMINALS LATE WED AND WED NIGHT. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM... HAVE DROPPED THE GALE WARNING IN FAVOR OF A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS PEAK WINDS HAVE COME DOWN BELOW 35KTS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THE SCA SHOULD BE DONE BY 12Z. MEANWHILE THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE HIGH WILL INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND MORE HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. LONG TERM...SCA IS LKLY SUN NIGHT INTO MON...WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOW END GALES ON MON. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS TUE AND SCA WILL PROB IN NW FLOW TUE INTO TUE NIGHT. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ150>154. && $$ NEAR TERM UPDATE...EKSTER SHORT TERM...CURTIS LONG TERM...CEMPA AVIATION...CEMPA/CURTIS MARINE...CEMPA/CURTIS

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