Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 111911 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 311 PM EDT FRI JUL 11 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT THEN SLIDE OFF THE COAST ON SATURDAY...PRODUCING ANOTHER DAY OF SUNNY AND COMFORTABLE WEATHER. A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS OR STORMS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY. MORE HUMID AIR MOVES IN SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND STALL OVER THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARM AND HUMID PERIOD WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION AT THE END OF THE WEEK WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT BY FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... SFC HI PRES WILL CREST OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. ANY FAIR WX CLDS FROM THE AFTN DIRUNAL HEATING WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET ALOWING FOR A CLEAR CALM NIGHT. SOME PATCHY VLY FOG ONCE AGAIN PSBL IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY LATE. TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN COOL INTO THE 40S TO MID 50S DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING. MODEL GUID GENRALLY WITHIN A FEW DEGS TONIGHT SO USED A BLEND FOR MIN TEMP FCST. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... THE CENTER OF HIGH PRES WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE BUT WITH A DRY WSWLY FLOW ALOFT. ANOTHER MOSUN DAY EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGS WARMER. ALONG THE COAST AN AFTN SEABREEZE IS EXPECTED THAT MAY KEEP TEMPS ALG THE COAST A LITTLE COOLER. SAT NIGHT THE RETURN WARMER SLY FLOW WILL BE LIGHT BUT ALLOWING A SLOW INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS. SOME MID/HI CLDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION SAT NIGHT SO OVERNIGHT TEMPS SHOULD BE NOT AS COOL WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR TEMPS. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... 500 MB TROUGHING DIGS EQUATORWARD OVER THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...PUSHING A SFC WARM FRONT ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY WHICH COULD SET OFF A FEW SCT SHRA...ESPECIALLY IN WRN AND NRN ZONES. MORE HUMID AIR BEGINS TO WORK IN AS S-SW FLOW DEVELOPS...ALTHOUGH SUNDAY WILL BE MORE OF THE TRANSITION DAY WITH TDS REACHING INTO THE LOW-MID 60S AND HIGHS UPPER TO 70S TO LOW 80S...WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. THE THREAT FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS THE SFC COLD FRONT CREEPS IN FROM THE WEST. SUNDAY WILL TURN HUMID WITH LOWS IN THE 60S. BY MONDAY...START TO SEE OMEGA BLOCKING DEVELOP ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AT 500 MB WITH STRONG ATLANTIC RIDGING. THIS WILL HOLD UP THE PROGRESS OF THE COLD FRONT SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF THE CWA AS IT LINES UP WITH FLOW ALOFT. MONDAY WILL BE HUMID WITH TDS IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 AND WE WILL SCT SHRA/TSRA WITH THE FRONT NEARBY....AND A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. MON NIGHT WILL BE EVEN LESS COMFORTABLE WITH LOWS MID 60S TO AROUND 70. ON TUE...IT LOOKS LIKE A WEAK WAVE WILL RUN NE ALONG THE FRONT AND WILL SEE MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS AND A BETTER CHC FOR SHRA/TSRA DURING THE DAY WITH HIGHS AGAIN UPPR 70S TO LOW 80S. THE 12Z EURO JUST CAME IN MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE SYSTEM AND CLEARS IT OUT BY LATE WED...WHILE THE 12Z GFS STALLS IT JUST OFFSHORE...AS DOES THE GFS ENS MEAN. KEEPING THE CHC POPS FOR WED...ALTHOUGH COULD BE SOME LESS HUMID CONDS IF THE FRONT MAKES IT THROUGH. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR HOW THE MODELS HANDLE THIS BLOCK AND THE STRENGTH OF THE ATLANTIC RIDGING...SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE LATE IN THE WEEK IS LOW...BUT ASSUMING THE FRONT MAKES IT THROUGH...EXPECT SOMEWHAT LESS HUMID AIR BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THU/FRI. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SHORT TERM...VFR CONDS THRU SAT NIGHT EXCEPT PATCHY VLY FOG PSBL 06-12Z AT KLEB. LONG TERM...WHILE VFR LOOKS TO PREDOMINANT SUN AND MON...SOME SCT SHRA/TSRA COULD BRIEFLY REDUCE CONDITIONS BOTH SUN AND MON DURING THE DAY. STRATUS AND FOG CAN BE EXPECTED TO BRING CONDS TO IFR SUN NIGHT AND AGAIN MON NIGHT. THE BEST CHC FOR FOR A MORE PERSISTENT PERIOD OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE TUE IN SHRA/TSRA. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NEW ENGLAND TNGT THEN MOVES OFFSHORE SATURDAY KEEPING WINDS AND SEAS WELL BELOW SCA LEVELS THRU SAT NIGHT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. AN ONSHORE FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH WILL BE ENHANCED BY A SEA BREEZE ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. LONG TERM...WHILE S-SW FLOW BECOME PERSISTENT SUN AFTERNOON TROUGH TUE...WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BLO SCA LVLS...ALTHOUGH COULD APPROACH 25 KT SUN NIGHT INTO MON. THE PERSISTENT FLOW WILL LKLY BRING SEAS UP TO AROUND 5 OR 6 FT IN SWELL LATE MON INTO TUE NIGHT. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$

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