Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 191711 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 1211 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY...BEFORE EXITING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES FRIDAY. SCATTERED SHOW SHOWERS AND COLDER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND... WITH A WARM UP FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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UPDATE...MOISTURE FROM LAKE ONTARIO BAND CONTINUES TO RIDE ACROSS NRN NYS THRU VT AND NH AND INTO THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS IN MAINE. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THIS REGION FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO BEFORE THE BAND DISSIPATES AND RIDGING OCCURS IN THIS REGION. LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. MESOSCALE MODELS CONCUR WITH THIS SCENARIO...DRYING UP THE PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER DOWNSLOPE REGIONS. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS...DEW POINTS AND WIND FIELDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. PREV DISC... 555 AM UPDATE: INCREASED POPS AND QPF FOR THIS MORNING IN THE NH/WRN ME MTNS DUE TO SOME OROGRAPHIC LIGHT SNOWFALL DEVELOPING IN THE MTNS. SOME LIGHT ACCUMS OF SNOW PSBL IN THE OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED AREAS. NO OTHER CHANGES TO REST OF FCST. PREV DISC: HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH A DRY WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MTNS OTRW DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. OVER DOWNSLOPING AREAS SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY BUT SOME MID/HI CLOUDS WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY. TEMPS WILL BE COLD.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... MID/HI CLOUDS OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS A WEAK S/WV MOVES ACROSS SRN CANADA. SCT SNW SHWRS ARE EXPECTED IN THE MTNS. MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED SO NO ACCUMS ARE EXPECTED IN THOSE AREAS. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. USED A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPS. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH AN IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH CROSSING THE AREA FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY...HEIGHTS RISE AND THE COLD AIR BEGINS TO RETREAT TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. WEAK RIDGING AND A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR MODERATING TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOUDS AND SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ARRIVE BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND LINGERS SUNDAY. MILD BUT INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF AN EVOLVING UPPER TROUGH THAT EVENTUALLY ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS. LOW PRESSURE AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TO FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR. LONG TERM... FRI...SCT MVFR PSBL IN MTN SNOW SHOWERS. SUN...SCT MVFR PSBL IN RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...LOWERED THE GALES TO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE MORNING AS WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW GALE CRITERIA. LONG TERM... FRI...GALES POSSIBLE...XCP SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS IN THE BAYS. SAT...SMALL CRAFT WIND AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE. SUN...GALES POSSIBLE...XCP SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS IN THE BAYS. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ150>154. && $$

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