Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 280430 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 1230 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRIDAY AND MOVES OFF THE COAST OVER THE WEEKEND ALLOWING A WARM AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW TO RETURN. COOL...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... 1220 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TREND AND TO INCORPORATE THE 04Z MESONET INTO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS. PREV DISC... .UPDATE... THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/... A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. THE PASSAGE OF THESE FEATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY EARLY...LATE MORNING TO MID AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL LIKELY BE PRESENT FOR A FEW STORMS...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE...ESPECIALLY ON THE COASTAL PLAIN. ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE FOR THURS NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... IN GENERAL TERMS THE OUTLOOK PERIOD IS SHOWING A LARGE LONG WAVE RIDGE POSITION BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED OFF THE EAST COAST. A FEW FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE DRAGGING BRIEF BOUTS OFF COOLER AIR AT TIMES AND THE THREAT OF SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING EACH FRONT. STARTING OUT THE OUTLOOK PERIOD IS THE SURFACE/UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR. SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT A CANADIAN SHORT WAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THAT WILL SET OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE REGION BY LATER SUNDAY WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD THROUGH WED BUT WITH A RETURN WARMER SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING BRINGING BACK WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS. STAYED CLOSE TO THE SUPERBLEND MODEL FOR TEMPERATURES AND POPS OVERALL. && .AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SHORT TERM...AREAS OF IFR/MVFR IN STORMS AWAY FROM THE COAST THIS EVENING. THEREAFTER...IFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN SPOTS IN FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT AND EARLY THU MORNING...ESPECIALLY ON THE COASTAL PLAIN. ON THURS...MAINLY VFR BUT SCT LOWER CONDITIONS IN TSTMS MAINLY BETWEEN 16Z-20Z. LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...BUILDING WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED IN SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BLO SCA CONDITIONS. && .FIRE WEATHER... WARM AND HUMID AIR WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND THURSDAY. THUS FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOWER THAN IT HAS BEEN. DRIER WEATHER ARRIVES THU NIGHT AND FRI. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150- 152-154. && $$ ES

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