Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 162143 AAA AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Gray ME 543 PM EDT Sat Sep 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure builds into the region through early next week, however moist conditions will continue with fog expected each night and morning. Tropical system Jose will approach New England by mid week. Canadian high pressure will build into the region late in the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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Update....No major changes to the current forecast. The most recent visible satellite imagery shows that the edge of the fog bank is beginning to push Wwd now. I expect that 23z timing of fog into coastal zones is about on target. I will also be monitoring trends for a possible dense fog advisory. Hi-res guidance is showing some high probabilities for longer duration 1/4SM especially near the coast. Previous discussion...Skies have cleared this afternoon as high pressure builds into the region allowing temperatures to climb to near 80F. The clear skies will rapidly end after sunset as a very moist boundary layer and light onshore flow combine to produce fog. Expect fog to form a few hours after sunset and become dense in places after midnight. At the coast the `creeping crud` offshore will move inland, and this may actually help visibilities as coastal locations move to a very low overcast rather than dense fog. With still some uncertainty in the extent of the fog and the locations with lowest visibilities have opted not to issue a dense fog advisory with the afternoon forecast package but expect conditions will need to be monitored closely overnight.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Sunday will again see high pressure over the region. Expect cloud cover and lingering fog through mid morning and then clearing skies. Temperatures will once again be above normal reaching near 80 in the interior and upper 70s along the coast. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Monday begins the week in a quiet fashion. A large upper level ridge will remain over the forecast area, however low level moisture and an onshore flow may be sufficient enough to trigger an isolated shower or sprinkle. The onshore flow will bring cooler conditions to the region with readings around 70 degrees for daytime highs. On Tuesday, Jose will be situated off the Mid Atlantic coast and moving northbound. Guidance suggests a slower moving system than previous runs. In any case, Jose will continue to be underneath a large scale ridge. Some moisture will spread into Northern New England, with scattered showers possible across the interior and showers likely along and near the coastline. By Wednesday, Jose will likely be at is northernmost latitude, potentially bringing a steady rainfall to southern areas as it reaches the 40N/70W benchmark. Still quite a bit of uncertainty with this unusual storm in terms of intensity and track. Cyclone phase diagrams indicate a shift from yesterdays rapid extratropical transition to more of a prolonged warm core system. Latest GFS and Euro solutions suggests that Canadian high pressure will build in late in the week, bringing drier back into Maine and New Hampshire as Jose meanders south and east of the region. && .AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Short Term... VFR conditions currently across the region will rapidly deteriorate after sunset to IFR and the LIFR in dense fog. Expect CT river valley and the immediate coastline to have visibilities below 1/4SM with areas of IFR fog elsewhere. Fog will lift after sunrise with the overcast lingering along the coast through midday. Long Term...High pressure holds into early next week resulting in VFR conditions. Ceilings and visibilities will likely lower in showers as Jose approaches from off the coast. && .MARINE... Short Term...Quiet water in terms of winds and seas. Onshore flow and high pressure will keep overcast skies and fog in the waters through the start of next week. Long Term...Seas and winds will remain below SCA thresholds. However, building long period swells will approach the coast next week as Jose moves northeast off the coast. Marine areas will see impacts regardless of track with large swells and a developing north to northeasterly winds likely on the waters. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... There is a moderate risk of rip currents Sunday for area beaches. Hurricane Jose will pass east of the region on Tuesday night into Wednesday. This will resulting Long period swell, and an increased risk for beach erosion and splash-over or possibly coastal flooding midweek. Dangerous rip currents are possible. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Legro SHORT TERM...Curtis LONG TERM...Cannon AVIATION...Cannon/Curtis MARINE...Cannon/Curtis is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.