Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 062248 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 648 PM EDT SUN JUL 6 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND OUT TO SEA TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS CANADA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...GENERATING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES THROUGH. ANOTHER FRONT WILL FOLLOW ON ITS HEELS AND MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... 6PM UPDATE... JUST MINOR TWEAKS. CLEAR SKIES REMAIN WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING OFF. WINDS WILL ALSO DECREASE OVERNIGHT BUT DO NOT EXPECT IT TO CALM ENOUGH TO DECOUPLE... SO HAVE KEPT THE NO FOG AND WINDIER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OUT TO SEA...STAYING WELL TO OUR S TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP A MILD SW FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES MOVING THRU THE W SW FLOW ALOFT WILL GENERATE SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION. THE GUSTY W SW WINDS LET UP OVERNIGHT BUT NOT LIKELY TO GO CALM EXCEPT MAYBE IN SHELTERED VALLEYS. WITH SOME CLOUDS AND WIND AROUND DON`T EXPECT TOO MUCH F OVERNIGHT. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 50S N AND AROUND 60 S. USED A BLEND OF MODELS AND MOS GUIDANCE FOR THE NEAR TERM FCST. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/... LOW PRESSURE AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVE SLOWLY SE THRU CANADA... STAYING NW OF OUR FCST AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME THE HIGH CONTINUES TO DRIFT OUT TO SEA. THIS SETS UP A BROAD SW FLOW ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING IN WARMER, MORE HUMID AND MORE UNSTABLE AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SHRA/TSTM ACTIVITY DEVELOPING NW TO SE MONDAY /MORE SO IN THE AFTERNOON/ AND CONT MONDAY NIGHT. SPC HAS AN AREA OF SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS EXTENDING INTO PART OF OUR FCST AREA. THERE COULD BE STRONG TO MAYBE SVR TSTMS DEVELOPING MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVE BUT HAVE NOT PUT IN ENHANCED WORDING AT THIS TIME. SW WINDS PICK UP ON MONDAY GIVING US BREEZY CONDITIONS. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE 80S...EXCEPT SOME UPPER 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND 70S MORE LIKELY ALONG THE COAST E OF PWM DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW. USED A BLEND OF MODELS AND MOS GUIDANCE FOR THE SHORT TERM FCST. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY. DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM DO NOT LOOK OVERLY IMPRESSIVE AND THE EVENT APPEARS AS THOUGH IT WILL HAPPEN AWAY FROM MAX DIURNAL HEATING. EXPECT SHOWERS AND ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES THROUGH. ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND EARLY THURSDAY. AGAIN...IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE ANYTHING TOO ORGANIZED WITH ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ONCE THE SYSTEM CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE A VIGOROUS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE SUNDAY. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...VFR TONIGHT WITH SOME VALLEY F POSSIBLE...BUT NOT HIGH ENOUGH CHC TO PUT IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. PLACES WITH THE HIGHEST CHC OF F ARE LEB...HIE AND CON. VFR LOWERS TO MVFR/POSSIBLE IFR IN DEVELOPING SHRA/TSTMS FROM NW TO SE MONDAY /MORE SO IN THE AFTERNOON/ AND CONT MONDAY NIGHT. LONG TERM... MAINLY VFR WITH SOME MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE ON TUESDAY OF SEEING MVFR CONDITIONS. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...ISSUED AN SCA FOR THE OPEN WATERS FROM NOW THRU MONDAY EVE. SEEING SOME GUSTS TO 25 KT AT THIS TIME AND WILL LIKELY SEE THAT THROUGH THE NIGHT THEN BECOME MORE FREQUENT MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVE. THIS WILL CREATE ROUGH SEAS. THE PROTECTED BAYS WILL STAY BELOW SCA LEVELS. LONG TERM... SEAS MAY REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS A PAIR OF WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARIES MOVE THROUGH. WINDS SHOULD STAY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA LEVEL THOUGH. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ150-152-154. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...CURTIS SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION... MARINE...

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