Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 231846 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 246 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTH ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE FAIR AND MUCH WARMER WEATHER ON SUNDAY INTO MEMORIAL DAY. A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY....PROVIDING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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THE SURFACE WIND GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY RELAX THIS EVENING AS NOCTURNAL RH VALUES BEGIN TO CLIMB AS WELL. THIS WILL GRADUALLY LESSON THE FIRE DANGER AFTER SUNSET...THEREFORE RED FLAG WARNINGS WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. NOT NEARLY A COLD A NIGHT TONIGHT AS HIGH CLOUDS WILL BUILD OVERHEAD...AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN OVER THE REGION.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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GUSTY WINDS AGAIN ON SUNDAY...THIS TIME FROM THE SOUTHWEST. RH VALUES GRADUALLY INCREASE SLOWLY HOWEVER. THERE WILL BE ENHANCED FIRE DANGER...BUT MOST LIKELY JUST BELOW RED FLAG CONDITIONS. EXPECT MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS WITH READINGS NEAR 80 DEGREES OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. DEW POINTS WILL START THE DAY IN THE LOWER 40S...AND GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THE DAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE WNW FLOW ALOFT MAY TRIGGER A BRIEF SHOWER IN THE MOUNTAINS LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. CAPE VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 200 J/KG IN THE MOUNTAINS SO THERE MAY BE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS WELL.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH NEXT WEEK. WARM AIR WILL SURGE NORTHWARDS ON MONDAY. WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW MOST AREAS WILL SEE THE BENEFIT OF THE WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS PUSHING TOWARDS 80 DEGREES ACROSS THE SOUTH. FURTHER NORTH EVEN THE MOUNTAINS WILL REACH THE 70. THE COOL SPOT WILL BE ALONG PENOBSCOT BAY WHERE THE FLOW WILL REMAIN ON-SHORE KEEPING TEMPS DOWN TO THE UPPER 60S. ALONG WITH THE WARMER AIR COMES A GENERAL ISENTROPIC LIFT BRINGING MORE MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. AREAS OF CLOUDS AND A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY. BY TUESDAY THE WARMTH MOVES NORTH TO COVER THE ENTIRE AREA AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 A FEW SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH WHERE A WEAK WAVE PASSING THROUGH QUEBEC MAY HELP TO PROVIDE SOME LIFT. WARM A HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED AND THURSDAY. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN PARTICULAR LOOKS LIKE BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES (1.75", WHICH IS AMONGST THE HIGHEST EVERY OBSERVED FOR GYX FOR THAT DATE) AND A STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET THIS COULD TOUCH OFF A FEW MORE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE STORM MOTION THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA IS WEAK (UNDER 10KTS) DUE TO THE BUILDING HIGH AND THUS THESE STORMS COULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING. WORKING IN OUR FAVOR WILL BE THE VERY DRY CONDITIONS THIS SPRING AS THE GROUND IS NOWHERE NEAR SATURATED. OVERALL THESE STORMS WOULD NOT BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO IMPACT OUR DRY SPRING BUT IS SOMETHING TO KEEP OUR EYE ON OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FRIDAY THE HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT OFF SHORE. AS IT BREAKS DOWN WE MAY SEE A FRONT PULL THROUGH THE REGION TOUCHING OFF FURTHER THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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SHORT TERM... VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN THE SHORT TERM...WITH JUST HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS AGAIN ON SUNDAY...NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS TODAY AS THE MIXING LEVELS LOWER SLIGHTLY. LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE WEEK. MVFR IN SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT.
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&& .MARINE...
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SHORT TERM... SCAS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL THIS EVENING AS THE GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN. WINDS INCREASE AGAIN ON SUNDAY FROM THE WSW. IT WILL BE A BORDERLINE SCA DAY...BUT FOR NOW...NO FLAGS ARE UP FOR SUNDAY. LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY CALM THROUGH THE WEEK.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER...
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RED FLAG WARNINGS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH VERY DRY AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS CONTINUING. THERE WILL BE BORDERLINE RED FLAG CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY. HOWEVER...WIND FIELDS AND MIXING VALUES ARE NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS TODAY. ALSO...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL SLOWLY BE ON THE RISE. WILL PROBABLY JUST MENTION ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR SUNDAY IN THE HWO.
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&& .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MEZ007>009- 012>014-018>028. NH...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NHZ004- 006>015. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150>154. && $$

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