Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 211456 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 1056 AM EDT SAT MAY 21 2016 .Synopsis... High pressure will slide well offshore today. A cold front will drop south from Canada and into northern New England tonight... while a coastal low pressure system develops south of the New England coast. This system will drift north and meander over the Gulf of Maine Sunday through early next week bringing unsettled and cooler weather. Warmer and drier weather arrives Wednesday. Warm and humid weather perhaps with occasional bouts of showers and thunderstorms may occur late week and next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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---1055am update--- Temperatures continue to rise this morning across the forecast area. Dewpoints in the 30s at some locations are pushing relative humidity values down into the 20 to 30 percent range. Expect temperatures to top out in the 70s to near 80 at some locations this afternoon. Again...this will result in some areas seeing low enough relative humidity values at or very near Red Flag criteria. However...wind is negligible today and overall fire conditions should be manageable. ---828am update--- Temperatures are rising a bit more quickly than originally forecast. Will update forecast package to account for this. This may also affect afternoon high temperatures slightly as well. With afternoon highs 3 or 4 degrees warmer... minimum relative humidity values will begin to approach Red Flag Criteria. However... without any wind and leaves beginning to appear on the trees...the fire weather concerns should stay at a minimum. 618 AM...minor ESTF update to reflect the current mesonet in near term grids. PREV DISC... At 06z...a 1024 millibar high was centered offshore south of Cape Cod. An east-west oriented cold front was draped across northern Quebec province. GOES infrared imagery showed an extensive area of cloudiness with an upstream trough across the Great Lakes. A few high clouds were spilling over the top of the ridge into the forecast area at the moment...otherwise another mainly clear and cool night with scattered valley stratus and fog over interior sections. For today...the ridge retreats offshore with sunshine gradually fading from west-to-east during the afternoon and early evening ahead of the approaching upper trough. While there could be a stray late day shower vicinity of the international border and extreme southwest New Hampshire...I expect one more dry and warm day to be the predominant theme as we begin the weekend. Highs today will be mainly in the 70s...with a few upper 60s along the midcoast of Maine.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... For tonight...the cold front over Quebec will sink slowly south while a slow-moving ocean low drifts north-northeast. The chance for showers will gradually increase overnight with the best prospect for precipitation along the international border and the immediate coastal plain. Low temperatures should be a couple of degrees either side of 50 across the region. On Sunday...the upper trough will move overhead with the forecast area sandwiched between the weak front stalled vicinity of the international border and the slow-moving offshore low. Model trends have been a bit further offshore with this low...so precipitation should be more showery in nature but we`ll see a mainly cloudy and cool day. High`s should be in the 50s along the coastal plain with lower and mid 60s for the interior. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Stacked low pressure will sink south of the region Sunday night into Monday allowing for drying during this period. While it may remain cloudy to mostly cloudy on Monday it looks to be a dry day save for a spot instability shower during the afternoon. The stacked low comes back north on Monday night and Tuesday and will allow for more clouds and showers. Thereafter a more summery pattern looks to arrive Wed through next weekend with increasing heat and humidity along with the possibility of a few bouts of showers and thunderstorms. As always is the case this time of year, we will have to watch for backdoor cold fronts sagging through the area that could put summer on hold for a few days. && .AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Short Term /through Sunday/...VFR...with areas of MVFR developing tonight and Sunday in showers. Long Term...VFR conditions are expected Sunday night and Monday. MVFR to occasional IFR conditions possible Tuesday in showers. VFR conditions return Wednesday. && .Marine... Short Term /through Sunday/...Winds and seas should remain below Small Craft threshold through tonight. On Sunday...strengthening Northerly flow associated with offshore low will bring small craft conditions outside the bays. Long Term...SCA conditions are expected Sunday night into Monday then subside. May have to watch out for a reemergence of SCA conditions Tuesday into Tuesday night with low pressure moving by to the east. && .Fire Weather...
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---1055am Update0--- See Near Term section above. /Previous Discussion.../ A ridge of high pressure will bring one last dry and warm day today. Cooler and unsettled weather will arrive tonight then linger into the first half of next week.
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&& .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Pohl

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