Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
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FXUS61 KGYX 211456
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1056 AM EDT SAT MAY 21 2016
High pressure will slide well offshore today. A cold front will
drop south from Canada and into northern New England tonight...
while a coastal low pressure system develops south of the New
England coast. This system will drift north and meander over the
Gulf of Maine Sunday through early next week bringing unsettled
and cooler weather. Warmer and drier weather arrives Wednesday.
Warm and humid weather perhaps with occasional bouts of showers
and thunderstorms may occur late week and next weekend.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion -----1055am update---
Temperatures continue to rise this morning across the forecast
area. Dewpoints in the 30s at some locations are pushing relative
humidity values down into the 20 to 30 percent range. Expect
temperatures to top out in the 70s to near 80 at some locations
this afternoon. Again...this will result in some areas seeing low
enough relative humidity values at or very near Red Flag criteria.
However...wind is negligible today and overall fire conditions
should be manageable.
Temperatures are rising a bit more quickly than originally
forecast. Will update forecast package to account for this. This
may also affect afternoon high temperatures slightly as well. With
afternoon highs 3 or 4 degrees warmer... minimum relative humidity
values will begin to approach Red Flag Criteria. However...
without any wind and leaves beginning to appear on the trees...the
fire weather concerns should stay at a minimum.
618 AM...minor ESTF update to reflect the current mesonet in near
At 06z...a 1024 millibar high was centered offshore south of Cape
Cod. An east-west oriented cold front was draped across northern
Quebec province. GOES infrared imagery showed an extensive area of
cloudiness with an upstream trough across the Great Lakes. A few
high clouds were spilling over the top of the ridge into the forecast
area at the moment...otherwise another mainly clear and cool night
with scattered valley stratus and fog over interior sections. For
today...the ridge retreats offshore with sunshine gradually fading
from west-to-east during the afternoon and early evening ahead of
the approaching upper trough. While there could be a stray late
day shower vicinity of the international border and extreme
southwest New Hampshire...I expect one more dry and warm day to be
the predominant theme as we begin the weekend. Highs today will be
mainly in the 70s...with a few upper 60s along the midcoast of
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.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
For tonight...the cold front over Quebec will sink slowly south
while a slow-moving ocean low drifts north-northeast. The chance
for showers will gradually increase overnight with the best
prospect for precipitation along the international border and the
immediate coastal plain. Low temperatures should be a couple of
degrees either side of 50 across the region. On Sunday...the upper
trough will move overhead with the forecast area sandwiched between
the weak front stalled vicinity of the international border and
the slow-moving offshore low. Model trends have been a bit further
offshore with this low...so precipitation should be more showery
in nature but we`ll see a mainly cloudy and cool day. High`s
should be in the 50s along the coastal plain with lower and mid
60s for the interior.
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Stacked low pressure will sink south of the region Sunday night
into Monday allowing for drying during this period. While it may
remain cloudy to mostly cloudy on Monday it looks to be a dry day
save for a spot instability shower during the afternoon. The
stacked low comes back north on Monday night and Tuesday and will
allow for more clouds and showers. Thereafter a more summery
pattern looks to arrive Wed through next weekend with increasing
heat and humidity along with the possibility of a few bouts of
showers and thunderstorms. As always is the case this time of
year, we will have to watch for backdoor cold fronts sagging
through the area that could put summer on hold for a few days.
.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Short Term /through Sunday/...VFR...with areas of MVFR developing tonight
and Sunday in showers.
Long Term...VFR conditions are expected Sunday night and Monday.
MVFR to occasional IFR conditions possible Tuesday in showers. VFR
conditions return Wednesday.
Short Term /through Sunday/...Winds and seas should remain below
Small Craft threshold through tonight. On Sunday...strengthening
Northerly flow associated with offshore low will bring small craft
conditions outside the bays.
Long Term...SCA conditions are expected Sunday night into Monday
then subside. May have to watch out for a reemergence of SCA
conditions Tuesday into Tuesday night with low pressure moving by
to the east.
-- Changed Discussion -----1055am Update0---
See Near Term section above.
A ridge of high pressure will bring one last dry and warm day
today. Cooler and unsettled weather will arrive tonight then
linger into the first half of next week.
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