Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 171843 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 243 PM EDT Mon Jul 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A trough of low pressure will dissipate as it moves in from the west tonight. A slow moving cold front will approach from the northwest Tuesday through Wednesday and will push south through the region Wednesday night. High pressure will build over the area on Thursday. Another cold front will drop south through the region on Friday. High pressure will build south from Canada Friday night and will crest over the region on Saturday before shifting offshore. Low pressure will move in from the west Saturday night and Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Upper trough swinging in from the west will enhance convection over northwest zones through the remainder of the afternoon and into this evening. Slow movement of these cells along with PWAT`s approaching 1.5 inches will make flash flooding a concern through the evening hours. Stronger cells may also produce gusty winds and small hail. Isolated cells will may become severe with wind damage the main threat. Marine layer over much of southeast New Hampshire and southern Maine will should knock these cells down as they continue east this evening. Expect ocean stratus to come flooding back into these areas later this evening and areas of fog and stratus will become widespread by Tuesday morning. Low temps overnight will range through the 60s. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Morning fog and stratus will gradually lift and clear through the morning hours but may take until noon in mid coast Maine. Upper trough will gradually fill on Tuesday. May be enough residual moisture and instability around to pop off a shower or thunderstorm but drier air will be pushing in from the west during the day so any convection will quickly diminish through the afternoon. High temperatures will range from the mid 70s to the mid 80s. Tuesday night looking fair and mild under partly cloudy skies. Lows will bottom out in the in the mid to upper 50s north and will range through the 60s south. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Due to ongoing active weather in the short term...the extended forecast is following the multi-model consensus. At this time significant changes from the previous forecast are not anticipated. See previous discussion. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Short Term...IFR/LIFR ceilings/vsby tonight through Tuesday morning...then becoming VFR. VFR Tuesday night. Long Term...Previous discussion...expect VFR conditions and light winds Wednesday and Thursday with a sea breeze near the coast. Showers and thunderstorms are likely Thursday afternoon, especially away from the immediate coast. These will diminish Thursday night, with another round of showers possible in the north on Friday. && .MARINE... Short Term...No flags. Long Term...Winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA thresholds. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...None. && $$

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