Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 202305 AAA AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Gray ME 705 PM EDT Thu Apr 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will move slowly east into New England through Friday. The approaching low and a cool onshore flow will provide rain to the region tonight through Friday night with some wet snow and sleet possible across the higher terrain near the international border. This slow moving system will keep cool unsettled conditions across the area for Saturday. A ridge of high pressure will gradually build in from the west for Sunday and early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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705 PM Update... Light echoes are not showing up on radar, however only sprinkles are expected at this time. Maine area of showers and thunderstorms is to our west at this time and will arrive in a few hours, although it will likely not have thunder. Have added drizzle as well as fog as marine layer expands ahead of the warm front in onshore flow this evening. Light rain should arrive in NH in the next few hours with heavier rain expected for the morning commute. A wintry mix is still possible for the highest elevations once precipitation develops. Previous discussion... At 18z a west-east frontal boundary was stalled to our south with a series of lows rippling eastward along it. A surface trough extended northward through eastern New England. A 1033 millibar high was situated over northern Quebec. For tonight... strengthening onshore flow and an approaching low from the eastern Great Lakes with rain gradually spreading eastward across the area. There could be some embedded thunder over western New Hampshire late tonight as well. Near the International border...we`ll be cold enough for some mix with snow or sleet across the high terrain where some light accumulation will be possible.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Little change Friday and Friday night...with persistent onshore flow as surface low pressure advances slowly eastward across New England. We`ll see occasional rain along with areas of drizzle and fog. Temperatures will remain below normal in the damp onshore flow. The higher terrain near the international border will continue to see a mix with sleet or snow with some additional light accumulations possible. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Low pressure will gradually depart to the east on Saturday which means that most steady precipitation should end during the morning across northern zones (which may include some snow across the higher terrain of the western ME mountains). However, another short wave trough will approach the region. This will likely mean moist NE flow continuing which could very well mean a cool, cloudy day with occasional drizzle for much of the region. Sunday should be a better day with better mixing possible ahead of approaching cold front/occlusion. Temps should be warmer than Saturday with breaks of sunshine expected (and dry to boot). Canadian high pressure builds in Sunday night and Monday and looks to hang around into Tuesday. This should allow for mainly fair weather with highs in the 50s both days. The possibility exists for a coastal low pressure system to affect our region Tuesday night through Thursday with onshore winds and rain, but as is to be expected at this point, ensemble members should a high amount of uncertainty in low placement. chance PoPs for now. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Short Term /through Friday Night/...MVFR lowering to IFR tonight in developing rain...drizzle and fog with areas of LIFR for Fri and Friday night. SE wind on Fri at coastal terminal sites will gust to 25 kt at times. Long Term...Widespread IFR in low clouds will into Saturday morning with some improvement foreseen Saturday afternoon and evening. Conditions will then improve to MVFR region wide for Sunday, with some low stratus possible again on the coast Sunday night. VFR seems to be the most likely scenario Monday through much of Tuesday. && .MARINE... Short Term /through Friday night/...Strengthening onshore flow overnight through friday will bring SCA conditions to all waters. Long Term...SCA will likely be needed Saturday and Saturday night, mainly for seas on the ocean waters. More tranquil conditions are expected Sunday into early next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Moist onshore flow will persist into Saturday, with below normal temps precluding any fire weather threat thru the weekend. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Friday to 7 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ150>154. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Schwibs NEAR TERM...Hanes SHORT TERM...Schwibs LONG TERM...Ekster

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