Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 290321 AAC AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 1121 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY AND STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND CROSS THE REGION SOMETIME NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... .UPDATE... FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. SOME STRATUS HAS FORMED OFFSHORE AND WILL BE SPREADING ALONG THE MIDCOAST SHORTLY. HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST SHOULD NOT HAMPER FOG/STRATUS FORMATION MUCH OVER THE CT RIVER VALLEY. TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S THIS HOUR AND WILL DROP A FEW MORE DEGREES OVERNIGHT AS DEW POINTS DROP SLIGHTLY AS WELL. && PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH TONIGHT WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT TO NORTHERN ZONES. HAVE INCLUDED SOME LOW CHANCE POPS FOR FAR NORTHERN ZONES BUT ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE LIGHT AND SPOTTY. WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF VALLEY FOG IN THE USUAL SPOTS AND MAY TAKE MOST OF THE MORNING TO BURN OFF AS CLOUDS COME IN ALOFT. LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 40S NORTH AND IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S SOUTH. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... ANY MORNING SUN IN SOUTHERN ZONES WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO CLOUDS AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE REGION. FORCING ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT LIMITED AT BEST BUT GOING WITH LOW CHANCE POPS MAINLY FOR EASTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS. INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW WILL SPREAD OCEAN STRATUS INTO THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON IN COASTAL AND SOUTHERN INTERIOR ZONES. WARMEST TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE FOUND IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER 70S. FARTHER TO THE NORTHEAST HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SOCKS IN MONDAY NIGHT AS MOIST ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES. LOOKING FOR AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE AND POSSIBLY A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS. LOW WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S NORTH AND UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S SOUTH. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE LONG RANGE STARTS OFF A BIT ON THE COOL AND DAMP SIDE TUESDAY AS BACK COLD AIR DAMMING FILLS IN BEHIND BACK DOOR FRONT THAT MOVES THRU MON NIGHT. DAY WILL START OFF WITH STRONG INVERSION AND COOL NE FLOW BLO WARMER AIR ALOFT...WHICH WILL MEAN CLOUDS/FOG/DZ IN THE MORNING ACROSS MOST OF THE COASTAL PLAIN AND INTO THE FOOTHILLS. AS THE SFC RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE NE AND COOLER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT WILL START TO SEE THINGS DRYING OUT AND CLOUDS BREAKING UP FROM NE TO SW /ACTUALLY AREAS N AND W OF THE MTNS INCLUDING CT VLY MAY SEE SOME SUN THROUGH OUT THE DAY IN DOWNSLOPE/. COASTAL AREAS AND EASTERLY UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE FOOTHILLS WILL BE STUCK IN THE CLOUDS ALL DAY. HIGHS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE 50S MOST PLACES...EXCEPT FOR THE WARMER DOWNSLOPE AREAS. BY WED...WE START TO SEE WEAK REX BLOCKING DEVELOP OVER THE NERN NOAM...WITH LOW TO OUR S AND RIDGE JUST TO OUR N. THIS SHOULD PUT US IN A SPOT TO GET FAIRLY DECENT WEATHER THRU THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE LOW HOLDS TO OUR S AND MODERATE AIR MOVES IN ALOFT POLEWARD OF THE 500MB LOW. IN GENERAL...SHOULD BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL. HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50. BY FRIDAY...START TO SEE THE BLOCK BREAK DOWN AS DEEP 500MB TROUGH DEEPENS TO OUR W...AND THEN LIFTS NE OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD BRING A FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SOMETIME OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A THREAT OF SHOWERS...FOR ABOUT A 12-24 HOUR PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE TIMING OF THAT REMAINS UNCERTAIN ATTM. && .AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHORT TERM...VFR TONIGHT. IFR/LIFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING MONDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING THROUGH TUESDAY. LONG TERM...IFR OR LOWER WILL START TUESDAY WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT AT INLAND TERMINALS TUE AFTERNOON. IFR CONDS LINGER ON THE COAST INTO TUE NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO VFR WED THRU FRI. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...SCA`S WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ON MONDAY. LONG TERM...WILL START OFF AT NEAR SCA LVLS IN NE FLOW TUE...WHICH WILL GRADUAL WEAKEN DURING THE DAY. THEN COULD SEE SEAS RISE ABV 5 FT AROUND THU DUE TO SWELL FROM OCEAN STORM PASSING OT THE SE. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...HANES

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