Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 232041 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 341 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY TONIGHT AND MONDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF MAINLY RAIN TO THE REGION. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY. COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AND MAY CAUSE TRAVEL DISRUPTIONS FOR THE HOLIDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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SUNDAY AFTERNOON MAXES IN THE DOWNSLOPE REGIONS WENT WELL INTO 50S TODAY, AND TDS CLIMBED TO AROUND 40 IN THIS AREA AS WELL. THIS WILL HELP KEEP THE MINS IN THESE AREAS WELL ABV FREEZING OVERNIGHT AS WAA RAIN MOVES IN FROM THE SW AFTER MIDNIGHT. EVEN IN THE THE N AND W MANY AREAS ARE INTO THE 40S WITH TDS IN THE UPPER 30S...SO MOST PLACES IN THIS AREA WILL START AS RAIN ALSO. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY SOME OF THE SHELTERED VALLEYS RADIATE...THEY COULD SEE A SHORT PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AT THE START...GENERALLY IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. MINS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AROUND 06Z AND GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40...WITH TEMPS STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING THRU SUNRISE. TEMPS LIKELY TO BEGIN TO RISE AFTER THE RAIN STARTS AS WARMER TEMPS MIX DOWN. A STEADY RAIN SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE CWA BY 12Z.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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MOST OF THE RAIN WILL OCCUR IN THE MORNING...AND END FROM SW TO NE...POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON IN ERN ZONES...BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO SOME SCT SHRA. QPF LOOKS TO BE ON THE ORDER OF A THIRD TO A HALF INCH. ONCE THE WARM FRONT CLEARS THE AREAS...EXPECTING WARM SECTOR TO SHIFT OVER THE AREA WITH INCREASING S-SW WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME BREAKS OF SUN. EVEN WITHOUT THE SUN...HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S IN THE SRN ZONES AND ALONG THE COAST. NERN ZONES WILL STAY COOLER WITH HIGHS LIMITED TO AROUND 50. 500 MB LOW WELL TO OUR NW SLOWS ANDS DEEPENS LATE MON INTO MON NIGHT...AND SFC FRONT AND FLOW ALOFT ALIGN...AND SFC FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST OUT NW. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A MILD NIGHT AS SW FLOW CONTINUES THRU THE NIGHT. MINS WILL ONLY DROP OFF TO NEAR 50 ON THE COAST...AND INTO THE 40S INLAND. WILL SEE SCT SHRA...ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT IN NRN ZONES.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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***COASTAL STORM LIKELY TO BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO BUSY HOLIDAY TRAVEL PERIOD*** COLD FNT CROSSES THE AREA TUE...WITH GUSTY WLY WINDS. THE BOUNDARY WILL THEN STALL OFF THE COAST AND PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR COASTAL STORM LATER WED INTO THU. FOR A SYSTEM THAT IS ENTERING THE DAY 3 TO 4 TIME PERIOD...THERE REMAINS A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE FORECAST. WWD SHIFT CONTINUED WITH 12Z GUIDANCE TODAY...AT LEAST ALLOWING FOR A GROWING CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIP WILL FALL ACROSS NH AND WRN ME WED INTO THU. HOWEVER...INDIVIDUAL DETERMINISTIC RUNS RANGE FROM A COASTAL SCRAPER WITH LIGHT SNWFL NEAR THE COAST...THE CMC...TO A STRONG LOW PRES CUTTING THRU THE HEART OF SRN NEW ENGLAND AND BRINGING MIXING WELL INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND...THE ECMWF. THIS UNCERTAINTY CAN BE TRACED BACK TO THE N PACIFIC...WHERE A TROF IS CROSSING THE AREA S OF AK. THIS WILL INFLUENCE THE DOWNSTREAM WRN N AMERICA RIDGE. MONITORING THE HEIGHT FIELDS IN THESE AREAS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE IN NARROWING DOWN THE FORECAST. HIGHER THAN MODELED HEIGHTS OUT W COULD LEND SUPPORT TOWARDS THE FARTHER W LOW PRES TRACK ALONG THE EAST COAST. ATTM ALL MODEL GUIDANCE FEATURES SOME PCPN ALONG THE COAST...SO HAVE INCREASED POP FURTHER. NOW THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY IS IN PTYPE. TEMPS ALOFT LOOK PLENTY COLD ENOUGH INITIALLY FOR SNWFL FOR THE FORECAST AREA. AND IF THE ECMWF WERE CORRECT...COULD COME DOWN QUITE HEAVILY FOR A TIME...BEFORE WARM AIR ALOFT FLOODS NWD AND CHANGES PCPN TO A MIX...RAIN...OR DRY SLOTS ALTOGETHER. GIVEN THAT IT IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...A BLEND REMAINS THE BEST FORECAST OPTION...THOUGH IT IS NOTED THAT THE GFS PROVIDES A NICE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD SOLUTION BETWEEN THE CMC AND ECMWF. TIMING DIFFERENCE ARE MINIMAL...SO IT DOES APPEAR THAT PCPN WILL BE MOVING IN QUICKLY WED EVE. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION TRAVEL DISRUPTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...ESPECIALLY WITH A HIGH VOLUME OF PEOPLE ON THE ROADS AND AT AIRPORTS. SECONDARY COLD FNT THEN HIGH PRES FOLLOW FOR FRI...WITH COLDER AIR MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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SHORT TERM...VFR EXPECTED THRU THIS EVENING. RAIN MOVES IN WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH A PERIOD OF IFR OR LOWER FROM THE PRE-DAWN THRU ABOUT MIDDAY MON. VFR RETURNS DURING MON AFTERNOON. LONG TERM...GUSTY WLY WINDS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS TUE. VFR CONDITIONS WED GIVE WAY QUICKLY WED EVENING TO IFR OR LOWER AS SNWFL MOVES NWD UP THE COAST. LOW CONFIDENCE IN PTYPE AFTER WED EVE...AS WARM AIR ALOFT MAY TURN TO A MIX OR ALL RAIN AT THE COAST. A PERIOD OF IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IS GROWING MORE LIKELY WED NIGHT INTO THU.
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&& .MARINE...
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SHORT TERM...HAVE DROPPED THE SCA...BUT HAVE HOISTED A GALE WARNING FOR ALL BUT CASCO BAY FOR MON INTO MON EVENING AS SW FLOW INCREASES AND PERSISTS AND PUSHES SEAS TO THE 7-10 FT RANGE. LONG TERM...GALES ARE POSSIBLE WED INTO THU AS COASTAL STORM TRACKS INTO THE GULF OF ME.
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&& .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ150>154. && $$ NEAR TERM...CEMPA SHORT TERM...CEMPA LONG TERM...LEGRO AVIATION...CEMPA/LEGRO MARINE...CEMPA/LEGRO

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