Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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689 FXUS61 KGYX 260716 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 316 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND STALL IN THE VICINITY THROUGH TODAY. THIS WILL BRING SOME PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NEW HAMPSHIRE AND COASTAL MAINE. SOME OF THIS WILL FALL AS SNOW. COOL HIGH PRESSURE THEN SETTLES IN THROUGH MIDWEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... CLOUDS ARE LOWERING TO FL100 OR LOWER AS TOP DOWN SATURATION CONTINUES. KGYX RADAR SHOWS PLENTY OF ECHOES BUT THESE ARE NOT REACHING THE GROUND AT THE MOMENT. WHEN THEY DO TOWARDS DAYBREAK IT WILL BE A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN. IT WILL PRECIPITATE MOST OF THE DAY AND CHANGE OVER TO RAIN ONCE TEMPERATURES WARM SLIGHTLY. NAM...GFS...AND CANADIAN ARE STILL ALL INDICATING A COUPLE SLUSHY INCHES AS FAR EAST AS PORTLAND. ALTHOUGH THIS MAY OCCUR DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE MOST OF THE ACCUMULATION WILL OCCUR ON GRASSY SURFACES AS ROAD SURFACES ARE QUITE WARM SO NOT EXPECTING A BIG IMPACT. OTHERWISE SNOW MAY ACCUMULATE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES MAY DROP A FEW MORE DEGREES IN PLACES BEFORE STAYING STEADY OR INCREASING IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY LEVEL OFF TODAY IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S. THERE WILL BE A SHARP CUTOFF TO THE PRECIPITATION AND EVEN CLOUD COVER WITH FAR NORTHERN AREAS ESCAPING WITH LITTLE TO SHOW FOR THE EVENT. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE NW. NORTHERLY WINDS ALLOW COOLER AIR TO FILTER IN. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REACH THE 20S NORTH TO 30S SOUTH UNDER CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AS DOWNSLOPING WINDS HELP TO CLEAR MOISTURE OUT. WEDNESDAY WILL BE SUNNY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S. RH VALUES DROP QUITE LOW AGAIN...BUT THANKFULLY IN THE CRITICAL MOISTURE AREAS TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 40S...LIKELY PREVENTING WIDESPREAD WILDFIRES. TO THE SOUTHWEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO 55-60 DEGREES AND THIS WILL BE WHERE MORE CONCERN WILL BE ABOUT FIRES. STILL RH VALUES IN THIS REGION WILL BE BORDERLINE...IN THE 25-30% RANGE. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... THE MODELS ARE NOW IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE UPPER LOW INITIALLY STALLED OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL KEEP US COOL AND ON THE DRY SIDE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THERE MAY BE A FEW CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW...OTHERWISE WE`LL BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE EASTERN CANADIAN UPPER LOW AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES THAT WILL BE DEFLECTED TO OUR SOUTH. THE END RESULT WILL BE A SURFACE RIDGE PARKED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE UPPER LOW WILL EVENTUALLY WEAKEN AND LIFT OUT...BUT MODELS SUGGEST THAT WON`T HAPPEN UNTIL THE START OF THE WEEKEND. A PASSING SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A FEW CLOUDS ON SUNDAY ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH THE MODELS OFFER SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES REGARDING STRENGTH...TIMING...AND LOCATION. && .AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SHORT TERM...PERIODS OF RASN FOR ALL SITES EXCEPT KAUG AND KRKD (WHO WILL JUST HAVE -RA) WILL CAUSE CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO IFR AT TIMES TODAY. EASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY BY TONIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END AS WELL AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING. LONG TERM... NO SIGNIFICANT OPERATIONAL IMPACTS DUE TO WEATHER EXPECTED. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...WE MAY SEE A GUST TO 20 KTS OR AN HOUR OR SO OF WAVES JUST TO 5 FT OVER THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS...BUT THIS WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO CONSTITUTE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. OTHERWISE SEAS ARE MOSTLY CALM. LONG TERM... WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLD. && .FIRE WEATHER... COOLER TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION MOVES IN TODAY FOR ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHEASTERN SECTION OF WESTERN MAINE. THE REMAINDER OF MAINE AS WELL AS NEW HAMPSHIRE WILL RECEIVE RAIN AND/OR SNOW WHICH WILL KEEP THE FIRE THREAT DOWN. RH VALUES DROP DANGEROUSLY LOW ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY AND WINDS COME UP TO 10-20 MPH...THEREFORE WE WILL HAVE TO TAKE A CLOSE LOOK ON WHERE PRECIPITATION FAILED TO FALL AFTER TODAY FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER RED FLAG DAY. THANKFULLY TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AND THIS MAY PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD WILDFIRES. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...HANES LONG TERM...SCHWIBS AVIATION...HANES

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