Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 250426 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 1226 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTH THIS EVENING AND WILL PROVIDE FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER INTO MEMORIAL DAY. A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY....PROVIDING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
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1220 AM...A FEW WEAK RADAR ECHOES CONTINUE TO SKIRT ACROSS FAR NERN CWA...BUT GIVEN LOW TDS AND FACT THAT THESE ARE FALLING FORM 10K OR HIGHER...HARD TO THINK ANYTHING MORE THAN A FEW DROPS OF RAIN REACHING THE GROUND THERE. OTHERWISE WILL SEE CONTINUED PATCHES OF CIRRUS AND MID CLOUDS TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT. PREVIOUSLY...THERE MAY BE A SPRINKLE OR A SHOWER IN THE NORTHERNMOST MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT DUE TO WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE FAST NORTHWEST FLOW. HOWEVER...MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY...ALTHOUGH RH VALUES WILL CLIMB VERY SLOWLY. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 30S IN A FEW LOCATIONS UP NORTH IN THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR IN ANY AREAS THAT BECOME CLEAR FOR A COUPLE HOURS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
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1220 AM...HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS/SKY A BIT FOR MONDAY MORNING AS BEST WAA HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. RADAR ECHOS OVER WRN NY AND LK ONTARIO ALSO COMING FROM MID-LVL CLOUDS AND CANNOT FIND OBS TO SUPPORT RAIN REACHING THE GROUND...WHICH WOULD ALSO SUPPORT LOWERING POPS THRU THE MORNING. PREVIOUSLY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER NEW ENGLAND...WHILE A WARM FRONT LIFTS TO NORTHERN SECTIONS DURING THE DAY. INITIALLY...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE QUITE DRY. HOWEVER WITH TIME...MOISTURE ADVECTION AND CONTINUED LIFT WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION ALONG AND NEAR THE WARM FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. THE ATMOSPHERE INITIALLY IS RELATIVELY STABLE...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED THE MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME. MAINLY 70S ARE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY...HOWEVER THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS...WITH MET GUIDANCE BEING MUCH WARMER. A COUPLE SPRINKLES MAY MAKE IT TO THE COASTLINE TOWARDS EVENING...BUT THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER FAR NORTHERN AREAS. SHOWERS BECOME A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS EARLY MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT CONTINUE TO SHIFT FURTHER TO THE NORTH AND EAST. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS IN TERMS OF LOCATION AND TIMING OF PRECIPITATION.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE WEEK AHEAD LOOKS WARM WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. TUESDAY BEGINS AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS TO OUR NORTH. FAR NORTHERN ZONES MAY SEE A FEW LINGERINGS SHOWERS TUESDAY MORNING. ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA SKIES WILL CLEAR ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 80S. BY WEDNESDAY WE BEGIN TO SEE A WEAK FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THIS WITH THE GFS BRINGING PRECIP IN EARLIER WHILE THE CANADIAN HOLDS IT OFF FOR A WHILE. HIGH TEMPS WILL SOAR TO NEAR 90, WHICH COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WILL MAKE CONDITIONS RIPE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE APPROACHING IMPULSE, AND CAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG EXPECT AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TO INITIATE ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. WHILE THE WARM AIR MASS WILL KEEP HAIL FROM BEING A LARGE CONCERN, THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS AND WEAK STEERING FLOW WILL BRING ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN. BY THURSDAY THE MAIN HIGH HAS MOVED OFF EAST OF THE MARITIMES LEAVING US ON THE PERIPHERY. A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES PASSING TO OUR NORTH MAY TOUCH OFF SHOWERS ... ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. && .AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND MONDAY. LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOWERING CEILINGS...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN AREAS MONDAY NIGHT. LONG TERM...MVFR IN SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOR HIE AND LEB... FURTHER SOUTH EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK. THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT ALL TERMINALS DURING THE AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. WILL BE DROPPING THE SCAS THAT WERE IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS TO BE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN LATE MONDAY NIGHT. LONG TERM...WITH THE HIGH BUILDING IN WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW ANY ADVISORY CRITERIA. WINDS WILL APPROACH SCA ON THE OUTER WATERS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. && .FIRE WEATHER... RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY BEING MET OVER SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERNMOST MAINE. AFTER COORDINATION WITH ADJACENT OFFICES AND THE STATE OF ME/NH...HAVE OPTED FOR A RED FLAG WARNING IN THESE AREAS. ADJACENT AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE AN ELEVATED THREAT AS WELL THROUGH 8 PM. WILL CONTINUE TO HANDLE WITH THE HWO PRODUCT WHICH WE HAVE ALL SEASON. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...CEMPA SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION... MARINE... FIRE WEATHER...

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