Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 110356 AAD AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Gray ME 1056 PM EST Tue Jan 10 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front will lift northeast through the region tonight and will be quickly followed by another front early Wednesday. It will warm up for Wednesday and Thursday. A cold front will slowly approach from the west Wednesday night and Thursday and will push east through the area Thursday night. High pressure will build in from the west Friday through Saturday and will hold over the region through Monday. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
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Update...At this hour the sub-freezing air is mainly confined to deep interior NH...the mtns of Wrn ME...and just against the foothills from Cumberland thru Kennebec Counties. Since the NWrn parts of those near coast zones are still below freezing...I will keep the freezing rain advisory going. I have also added a winter wx advisory for central Somerset. Warmth aloft does not look like it will penetrate that far N...and 3 to 5 inches of snowfall looks possible by morning. Otherwise no changes to the headlines...and forecast tweaks were made to keep temps in line with current trends. That way precip type better matches surface temps. Previous discussion...A warm front approaching from the southwest will spread light snow or a mix of rain and snow into southwest zones after sunset this evening. Snow will gradually spread east through interior sections of New Hampshire and western Maine during the evening hours. Will gradually see snow mix with rain and slowly change over all rain in southern interior and central sections overnight. Should see some light accumulations of generally an inch or less in coastal and southern interior sections before the changeover. Increasing southerly flow will result in upslope areas in Central New Hampshire and Maine picking up 2 to 4 inches of wet snow before the change over. 1 to 3 inches can be expected in the far north before mixing with or changing to rain. Rain and mixed precip should be winding down in New Hampshire before dawn and in western Maine by daybreak Wednesday. Expect lows to occur during the evening hours before temperatures begin rising. Lows will range from the 20s north to the lower to mid 30s south. Strong low level jet will punch into the midcoast area after midnight with gusts along the immediate coast reaching 40 to 50 mph toward daybreak Wednesday so have issued wind advisories for mid coast zones for late tonight through early Wednesday.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Cold front will swing through early Wednesday morning and skies will quickly clear from west to east. Not much in the way of cold air behind the front so expect temps to take a good jump during the morning hours...topping out in the early afternoon with lower to mid 40s north and mid 40s to lower 50s south. Expect increasing high clouds in western zones by mid to late afternoon as another system approaches from the west. Clouds will thicken Wednesday night as a cold front slowly approaches from the west. Area of weak over-running passing south of the region may brush southern zones with a few showers after midnight. There will also be a chance of a little light freezing rain in northern zones toward Thursday morning as the front shifts into northern New York. Lows will range through the 20s north and lower to mid 30s south. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Chance of high impact WX: Minimal. Strong zonal pattern develops at 500 mb across the Pacific, with split occuring over the west coast, this will allow for amplified and unsettled, but warm flow over the rest of NOAM as cold air get bushed back closer to the pole and Alaska. One surge of colder air hits for the weekend, but will return to above normal temps after that. Compact, but energetic 500 trough swings N of the GReat Lakes Thu and Thu night and will provide initially some WAA Thu followed by a Cold late Thu and Thu night. Warm sfc air in place will like be mainly rain but could still be FZRA inland early Thu. Otherwise temps warm into the 40s and low 50s, and maybe a little higher in the south, if we can break into some sun in the warm sector Thu afternoon. Cold front moves through around 00Z, and may set off another round showers as it moves through, although temps don`t cool off too much until trough axis swings through Friday. Morning highs Friday will range from the mid to upper 30s in the N, to the lower 40s in the south, but temps will then fall thru the afternoon. The weekend looks colder, but fair, with temps running a little below normal, but not as bad as previous cold outbreaks this winter. Sat will be the colder day with highs in the teen N, to mid-upper 20s south, and Sunday look for highs a few degrees warmer generally raging from the mid to upper 20s in the N, to the mid 30s in the south. Sat morning lows will be in the -5 to zero range in the N, and around 10 in the south, with milder readings Sunday morning. On Saturday will have to watch weak low passing to our south, but for now models in agreement that any snow stays in southern New England. Models begin to diverge early next week, at least on synoptic scale, as the GFS produces more organized 500 mb trough to our W, while the Euro shows several smaller waves. Have just gone chc pops Mon Night through Tue night for now. Models do agree to some level of a warming trend early next week as well. && .AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Short Term...IFR/LIFR ceilings/vsby developing tonight.... improving to VFR early Wednesday. Areas of mvfr ceilings developing after midnight Wednesday night. Long Term...IFR expected in RA on Thu, with some moderate improvement o MVFR Tue night and then improvement to VFR on Fri, which will hold through the weekend. && .MARINE... Short Term...Gale warning for southwest and central waters and bays with a storm warning in far eastern outer waters through Wednesday morning. Long Term...SCA may be needed again Thu through Fri, with SW flow Thu shifting to NW on Fri. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Strong south to southeast flow overnight will create a storm surge of 0.5 to 1 foot. This may create some splashover or beach erosion at the time of high tide around 930 am Wednesday so will be issuing a Coastal Flood Statement highlighting the threat. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...Wind Advisory until 9 AM EST Wednesday for MEZ025>028. Freezing Rain Advisory until 1 AM EST Wednesday for MEZ013-014- 019>022. Winter Weather Advisory until 8 AM EST Wednesday for MEZ009. NH...None. MARINE...Gale Warning until 10 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ151>154. Storm Warning from 2 AM to 10 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ150.
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