Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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420 FXUS61 KGYX 250314 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Gray ME 1114 PM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will drop south through the region tonight and will stall southwest of the area on Saturday as high pressure builds in from the north. High pressure will crest over the area Saturday night and will shift east on Sunday. Low pressure will slowly approach from the midwest Sunday night through Tuesday and will pass out to sea south of the region Tuesday night and Wednesday. High pressure will build in from the west Wednesday night through Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... Update...With precip becoming become weaker and more scattered in nature I will drop the remaining winter wx advisories. The front is now beginning to sag back S...and so some renewed shower activity is possible across NH and extreme SWrn ME. At this time it looks most likely ptype will be rain or snow based on surface temps...as the warm nose is cooled by CAA aloft. Previous discussion...Broad area of over-running draped across the region will persist through this evening producing snow in northern zones and gradually going over to rain in southern zones. Getting quite a bit more QPF out of this system than models had depicted with snow accumulations approaching advisory levels in portions of Central and northern New Hampshire. Have issued winter weather advisories for central and northern New hampshire through this evening for additional accumulations of 1 to 3 inches. Farther south and in southwestern Maine snow will gradually mix with and change over to sleet and rain as boundary layer warms. Snow accumulations in these areas will generally be in the 1 to 3 inches range before changing over. Cold front dropping south will change liquid precip back to snow and sleet later this evening and overnight. Lows overnight will range through the 20s north and lower to mid 30s south. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... High pressure will gradually build south from Canada behind the front on Saturday. Morning clouds and snow showers in southern zones will be gradually suppressed to the south during the day. Highs will top out in the lower to mid 40s across the region. High pressure will crest over the region Saturday night producing mostly clear skies and light winds. Should see good radiational cooling with lows ranging through the single numbers north and teens to mid 20s south. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Very complex pattern and active pattern to continue through next week with bouts of mixed precipitation. High pressure will remain locked over New England on Sunday, suppressing precipitation to our south for a short period of drying out. However, moisture returns northward with a returning warm front Sunday night into Monday. This will be during a period of cold and relatively dry air locked in near the surface. The threat of sleet and/or freezing rain will continue during this period, especially during the Sunday night into early Monday timeframe as a weak wave crosses through the Gulf of Maine. Have highlighted this possibility in the briefing slide. Models are having a challenging time picking up on individual short waves crossing through the Gulf of Maine thereafter. One short wave exits through the Gulf on Tuesday, with the GFS solution holding back more energy for Tuesday night. On Wednesday, somewhat drier air finally filters into the region behind exiting low pressure into the Canadian maritimes. Cooler air filters into the region on Thursday due to high pressure building southeast. However, this batch of cold air will not be as cold as previous shots of cold air advection as yet another system approaches from the south. By Friday significant precipitation may very well be entering the forecast area. && .AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Short Term...MVFR/IFR ceilings and vsby tonight....improving to VFR on Saturday. VFR Saturday night and Sunday. Long Term...Areas of IFR and patchy LIFR developing Sunday. This will continue right through Tuesday night. Improving conditions with high pressure on Wednesday. && .MARINE... Short Term...Continuing SCA`s for the bays and outer waters until midnight. Long Term...SCA conditions possible Sunday night into Monday as low pressure approaches the region. Gusty northwest winds will occur on Thursday behind an intensifying low pressure system. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 5 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ150-152-154. && $$ NEAR TERM...Legro

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