Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 161351 AAB AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 951 AM EDT SAT AUG 16 2014 .SYNOPSIS... UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY WITH SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE DAY...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. WEAK LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THEN MOVE SLOWLY OFF TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY THEN STAYS TO OUR NORTH WHILE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO OUR SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... .UPDATE... ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS...SKY COVER...AND POPS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING JUST A LITTLE SLOWER IN THE NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST THANKS TO CLOUD COVER. SHOWERS ARE NOT DEVELOPING AS FAST EITHER AND DECREASED POPS TO JUST CHANCE OVER THE FAR NORTH. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... THE UPPER LVL LOW OVER THE REGION WILL SUPPLY INSTABILITY KEEPING LOTS OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF -SHRA. THE BEST CHC WILL BE ACROSS THE N/MT ZONES DUE TO ENHANCE LOW LVL LIFT DUE TO OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCES AS WELL AS BEING CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LVL SYSTEM. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE 60S N TO THE 70S S. USED A BLEND OF MODELS AND MOS GUIDANCE FOR THE NEAR TERM FCST. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... THE UPPER LVL CUTOFF LOW REMAINS JUST TO OUR N TNGT AND SUNDAY WHILE A SHORT WAVE TROF ROTATES AROUND THIS CIRCULATION...CROSSING THE FCST AREA LATER TNGT INTO SUNDAY. WITH THE TROF MOVING THRU IT FORCES A SFC LOW AND TRAILING COLD FNT TO FORM AND SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION AND MOVE OFF THE COAST ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL GIVE US A BETTER CHC OF -SHRA TNGT AND SUNDAY WITH THE HIGHEST CHC ACROSS THE N/MT ZONES. EXPECT TNGT TO SEE LOWS IN THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS WITH NEAR 60 DEGREES LIKELY FOR SOME COASTAL AREAS. HIGHS ON SUNDAY AGAIN IN THE 60S N AND 70S S AS A COOL AIR MASS UNDER THE LARGE UPPER LVL LOW DOMINATES OUR WX. USED A BLEND OF MODELS AND MOS GUIDANCE FOR THE SHORT TERM FCST. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... PASSAGE OF S/WV TROF WILL LEAVE THE CWFA UNDER FAST...CONFLUENT... CAA FLOW. THIS WILL ACT TO CLEAR OUT ANY REMAINING CLOUDS AND PCPN QUICKLY...EXCEPT FOR THE FAVORED NWLY UPSLOPE REGIONS OF NH AND WRN ME. AFTER MON...RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD IN ALOFT...THOUGH LOW HEIGHTS LINGER NEAR AND NE OF THE REGION. SO WHILE WRN TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP...SUMMER HEAT WILL STRUGGLE TO PUSH INTO THE AREA. THE RESULTING SFC PRESSURE PATTERN WILL FAVOR FLOW FROM UNFAVORABLE DIRECTIONS FOR BIG WARMTH. HOWEVER...THAT IS NOT TO SAY IT DOESN/T LOOK LIKE AN EXTENDED STRETCH OF PLEASANT WX COMING UP. MOST OF THE WEEK SHOULD REMAIN DRY...WITH VERY COMFORTABLE TEMPS AND HUMIDITY. THE ONLY THREAT FOR PCPN WILL BE TENUOUS...AS CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED S/WV TROFS TRY AND SNEAK UNDER THE BLOCK AND INTO WRN ZONES BY LATE IN THE WEEK. && .AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...VFR...EXCEPT MVFR IN ANY -SHRA ACTIVITY WHICH WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND FREQUENCY TNGT AND SUNDAY. BEST CHC FOR PRCP AND LOWERING CIG/VSBY WILL BE ACROSS THE N/MT ZONES IMPACTING THE HIE TAF. LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF OCNL VALLEY FOG AT NIGHT. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...UPDATED TO INPUT LATEST OBSERVED DATA RESULTING IN ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FCST FOR TODAY. WINDS MAY GUST NEAR 25 KT FOR AWHILE EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE OPEN WATERS...BUT THEY SHOULD DROP OFF BY DAYBREAK LEAVING WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS THRU THE SHORT TERM FCST PERIOD. LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...HANES

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