Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 242110 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 336 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS EAST OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY....AND WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF SNOW...ENDING BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THIS SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME AS HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS LATE IN THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... WEAK WAVES IN THE SRN AND NRN STREAM PASS TO OUR NW AND SE LATE TONIGHT /BEFORE EVENTUALLY PHASING TO OUR EAST ON WED/ AND WILL BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT OR SHSN TO MOVE OVER THE REGION...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AS THE SYSTEMS INTERACT LATE TONIGHT WE WILL START TO SEE SOME MID LVL FRONTOGENESIS FORM JUST OFFSHORE. THIS WILL LKLY FORM A BAND OF SNOW OFF THE COAST...WHICH WILL GRAZE COASTAL AREAS E OF KPWM AND WILL IMPACT THE MID COAST AND ESPECIALLY THE PENOBSCOT BAY REGION WITH 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW. AS YOU MOVE FURTHER NW FROM THIS AREA AMTS DROP OFF QUICKLY...WITH 1-3" FROM SEACOAST NH NE THROUGH THE PORTLAND AREA...THE CAPITAL REGION...AND INTO SRN SOMERSET COUNTY. EXPECT AN INCH OR LESS ACROSS THE REST OF NH AND INTERIOR WRN ME. THE BULK OF THE SNOW LOOKS TO FALL BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. IN THE ADVISORY AREA IT MAY LINGER UNTIL ABOUT 15Z...SO COULD SEE A QUICK 4-6" OF SNOW HERE DURING PRE-DAWN AND INTO THE MORNING COMMUTE. TEMPS WILL DROP OFF A BIT THIS EVENING...MORE SO IN THE ERN AND NRN ZONES WHERE LESS CLOUDS AND A PERIOD WITHOUT ANY REAL BL FLOW WILL ALLOW SOME RAD COOLING. BUT TEMPS HERE WILL STALL AND SHOULD BEGIN TO RISE NEAR THE COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY LINGER OUTSIDE THE ADV AREA FOR THE EARLY MORNING...BUT SHOULD BE CLOSE TO OVER BY 12Z...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ADVISED MID-COAST AREA...WHERE SNOW WILL LINGER THRU ABOUT 14-15Z. MODELS INDICATE RAPID CLEARING FROM W-E BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AS W WINDS DOWNSLOPE AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN. WITH THE SUN AND THE DOWNSLOPE...WILL SEE TEMPS RISE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ON THE COASTAL...AND INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S IN THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS. THE WINDS DIE OFF AROUND SUNSET WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD SEE SOME GOOD RAD COOLING...BUT WITH WARMER AIR ALOFT...WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS MON MORNING WITH LOWS SINGLE ABV ZERO NEAR THE COAST...AND SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO INLAND. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION DURING THURSDAY. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE CLOUDS FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE AREA BUT THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE GFS WOULD GIVE THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW FLURRIES BUT THE EURO KEEPS ALL PRECIPITATION SOUTH. REINFORCING COLD COMES IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILD OVER THE REGION. FOR SUNDAY...AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOME. A WEAK OVERRUNNING SETUP FORMS SUNDAY NIGHT THAT COULD PRODUCE A PERIOD OF SNOW. ANOTHER WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY. MODELS AGREE ON BRINGING ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES...PRECIPITATION TYPE COULD BECOME A CHALLENGE BY LATE TUESDAY OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. && .AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SHORT TERM...CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO MVFR LATE THIS EVENING AND EVENTUALLY IFR IN -SN AT ALL BUT KLEB/KHIE WHERE IT WILL LKLY STAY MAINLY MVFR IN -SHSN. CONDS WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY TO VFR DURING WED MORNING BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...WHICH WILL PERSIST INTO WED NIGHT. LONG TERM...AN AREA OF MVFR CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT COULD RESULT IN MVFR CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A PERIOD OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN SW FLOW...WHICH COULD PRODUCE A FEW GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KT LATE TONIGHT...BUT WILL HOLD OFF THE SCA FOR NOW. BETTER CHC FOR SCA WILL BE IN THE W FLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM FROM LATE WED MORNING INTO WED EVE. LONG TERM... LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE WATERS THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY THE APPROACH OF A WARM FRONT SUNDAY. WINDS AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...WINTER WEATHER ADV FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ022-026>028. NH...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY UNTIL 11 PM WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150>154. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...CEMPA SHORT TERM...CEMPA LONG TERM...LULOFS AVIATION...CEMPA MARINE...CEMPA/LULOFS

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