Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 170712 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 312 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA TODAY. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND WILL CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SET UP BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY TRACK SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AND WILL REDEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OFF THE EAST COAST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
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ENHANCED SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW VERY IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE FEED IN PROGRESS OVER THE MIDCOAST REGION OF MAINE ALONG/AHEAD OF STRONG COLD FRONT AND IN CONNECTION WITH MAJOR HURRICANE GONZALO. 00Z MESOSCALE MODEL SUITE INDICATING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 09Z-12Z...KICKING MUCH OF THE PRECIP INTO EASTERN MAINE AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. MEANWHILE EXPECT ANOTHER INCH OF RAIN TO FALL IN THE MIDCOAST AREA WHICH CONTINUES TO BE MONITORED FOR ENHANCED RAINFALL. MEANWHILE...DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER IN WESTERN AREAS THIS MORNING. THERE MAY STILL BE AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. COLD AIR IS LACKING BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...SO EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS NEAR 70 DEGREES...EVEN AT THE COASTLINE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SATURDAY/...
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A SECOND COLD FRONT BUILDS SOUTH AND EAST TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE SOUTH IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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ANY SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE OUT SATURDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION... THOUGH SOME UPSLOPE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. ALTHOUGH STILL NOT IMPRESSIVE BY FALL STANDARDS... IT WILL BE A COLD ENOUGH AIR MASS TO BRING A NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE FROM THE RECENT WARMTH. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST ON SUNDAY AS COLD ADVECTION ALLOWS GOOD MIXING. GUSTS TO 25 OR 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE 40S AND 50S. THE COLDEST NIGHT WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT WHERE MUCH OF THE REGION WILL FALL TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING. WINDS MAY STILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS... AND MAY SPARE THE COAST THEIR FIRST FREEZE. BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE... WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 30S EXPECTED IN THE COASTAL AREAS WHICH HAVE NOT YET ENDED THE GROWING SEASON. THE COOL WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AGAIN ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER LARGE CUT OFF LOW WILL DIG THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE MIDDLE APPALACHIANS TUESDAY. IT WILL LINGER OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE FINALLY GETTING A KICK OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. DETAILS ON SURFACE FEATURES AND RESULTING PRECIPITATION PATTERNS ARE FAIRLY UNCERTAIN AS THE GFS AND ECMWF VARY ON WHEN PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE... WITH THE ECMWF THE WETTER SOLUTION OF THE TWO FOR OUR REGION. HAVE AVOIDED GOING WITH TOO HIGH OF POP CONSIDERING THE UNCERTAINTY ESPECIALLY IN THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION... SPREADING OUT THE RAIN CHANCES OVER THE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE IN THE SOUTH AND NEAR THE COAST WHERE PERIODS OF DRIZZLE MAY OCCUR AS WELL. OVERALL A VERY COOL AND WET EXTENDED FORECAST WITH TEMPERATURES NOT LIKELY TO RISE OUT OF THE 50S.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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SHORT TERM...AREAS OF LIFR THIS MORNING...LIFTING THIS MORNING TO VFR. PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG IN THE VALLEYS TONIGHT WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS. LONG TERM...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY WHEN A PERIOD OF RAIN AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY BEGIN.
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&& .MARINE...
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SHORT TERM...SCAS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR SEAS FOR THE OUTER WATERS. WINDS MAY REACH 25 KT GUSTS AT TIMES AS WELL. LONG TERM...SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGH THROUGH SUNDAY PARTIALLY DUE TO SWELL FROM THE DISTANT HURRICANE AND ALSO DUE TO INCREASING WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WINDS ON SUNDAY COULD GUST TO 30 KT BEFORE SUBSIDING SUNDAY EVENING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY AND MAYBE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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THE MIDCOAST REGION CONTINUES TO BE HIT WITH A MOISTURE BAND EXTENDING WELL OFF THE COAST. THIS BAND IS INTERACTING WITH HURRICANE GONZALO AT THIS TIME. EXPECT ANOTHER INCH OF RAINFALL IN THIS AREA...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS INTO EARLY THIS MORNING.
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&& .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028. NH...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ150-152- 154.
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&& $$ CK/JC

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