Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 191342 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 942 AM EDT FRI AUG 19 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will crest over the region today. It wilL then shift offshore tonight and will hold off the coast through Saturday night. A cold front will approach from the west late Sunday and will slowly cross the region Sunday night and early Monday. High pressure will build in from the west Monday night through Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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940 am update: High pressure centered over the region with clear skies and light winds. Fog in the valleys has all burned off. Picture perfect day. Input all latest mesonet data with no changes needed to forecast. 620 AM...minor ESTF update to ingest the 10z mesonet into near term grids. Prev Disc... At 06z...a 1005 millibar surface low was vicinity of the Gaspe peninsula with a trailing cold front through the Gulf of Maine and southern New England. A 1016 millibar ridge was over southern Quebec. GOES Infrared imagery showed patchy clouds across the forecast area. The mainly clear skies and light winds was allowing patchy valley stratus and fog to develop along the Connecticut valley as well as northern New Hampshire. For today...the frontal system will continue to press southeast and offshore while the surface ridge builds into the forecast area with drier air. By afternoon...the light synoptic flow should turn onshore along the coast in a developing seabreeze. Highs today will range from mid 70s to near 80 in the mountains...with readings in the lower and mid 80s elsewhere along with comfortable dewpoints as we round out thework week.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... Mostly clear tonight with the surface ridge overhead. There`ll be some late night night valley stratus and fog developing. Lows will be mainly in the 50s...with some lower 60s over extreme southeast New Hampshire. On Saturday...the ridge has retreated offshore will strengthening return flow introducing slightly more humid air into the region. It`ll be several degrees warmer then today with highs in the 80s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Sufficient gradient to keep most fog out of the region Saturday night. This is despite increasing low level dew points with time as moist, southerly winds continue. By Sunday, low clouds may build off the water as an upper level trough and strong surface cold front approaches from the west. 00Z model suite in good agreement pushing the front through New Hampshire by daybreak Monday and the front over KPWM by 12z. Ahead of this front, plenty of moisture will ride up the coast in the form of 2+ inches PWAT. This will interact with approaching upper level trough and associated height falls with the best dynamics occurring over northern areas. In the north and mountains, an inch or more rainfall will remain possible with less to the south and east. An embedded thunderstorm is possible during this period, however instability values are not overly high. This front slowly moves to our east Monday, allowing gusty northwesterly winds to follow. An upper level trough may cause a widely scattered diurnally driven shower during the afternoon hours. Cool, canadian high pressure will be in control of the Northeast through midweek next week. Thereafter, a southwesterly breeze and a warming trends will take hold of New England. && .AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Short Term /through Saturday/...Lcl ifr in valley stratus and fog btw 06z and 12z today then again from 06z to 12z Saturday. otw vfr conditions expected. Long Term...Sufficient gradient to keep most fog out of the picture Saturday night. VFR conditions all sections Sunday with IFR conditions then expanding from west to east in heavy showers and scattered thunderstorms Sunday night into early Monday. && .MARINE... Short Term /through Saturday/...quiet on the waters as a surface ridge slides southeast and crosses the waters through the period. Long Term...Expect sub-SCA conds on the waters Saturday through Tuesday, however seas will be on the increase over the weekend as a southerly flow continues ahead of a strong cold front. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...None. && $$

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