Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 241155 AAA AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 654 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND WILL BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TO JUST SOUTH OF CAPE COD BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST INTO THE MARITIMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... .UPDATE... RAIN SHIELD HAS MOVED INTO NH AND EASTERN MAINE ALREADY AS OF 7 AM. A COUPLE SITES REPORTED MINI HEAT BURSTS...INCLUDING LANCASTER AND WHITEFIELD...WITH TEMPERATURES RISING 8-10 DEGREES OR MORE WITHIN AN HOUR. THESE SITES ARE BENEFITING FROM STRONG DOWNSLOPING WINDS AS TURN TURN SSE AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT. STEADY RAIN WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING BEFORE ENDING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST EXCEPT TO INPUT TEMPERATURES. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME NOW BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AS A WARM FRONT NEARS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE BOUNDARY CURRENTLY ARCS INTO SOUTHERN MASSACHUSETTS AND WILL BE LIFTING INTO SOUTHERN NH AND SOUTHWEST MAINE TOWARDS DAYBREAK. A FEW BREAKS IN THE PRECEDENT CLOUD COVER HAS ALLOWED SEVERAL LOCATIONS TO DROP TO FREEZING OR BELOW. THE WAA/CLOUD COVER SHOULD RAISE READINGS A COUPLE DEGREES AT LEAST AHEAD OF ANY PRECIPITATION... SO NOT EXPECTING ANY FREEZING RAIN. EXPECTING STEADY LIGHT RAIN TO TRANSITION TO HEAVIER RAIN AS THE BRUNT OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD MOVES THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING. VERY STRONG LLJ NOSES ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING WITH 70 KTS JUST OFF THE DECK. WE DON`T MIX MUCH AT ALL TODAY AND ONLY A SMALL INVERSION WILL BE WHAT KEEPS US FROM REALIZING VERY STRONG WINDS AT THE SURFACE. THAT SAID...WE WILL HAVE SOUTHERLY GUSTS IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE FOR SEVERAL HOURS. QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS WHERE UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN MAY FALL. STEADY RAIN GIVES WAY TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BY THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL DISSIPATE BY EARLY AFTERNOON OVER THE EAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND IN THE 40S AND 50S AS WE REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR INITIALLY. A COOL FRONT DOES MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME WESTERLY AT THE SURFACE. THIS ALONG WITH DRIER UPPER LEVELS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR WILL HELP CLEAR OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TUESDAY...MAKING IT A WARM AND DRY DAY (IF A LITTLE WINDY). DIURNAL RANGES MAY ONLY BE A COUPLE DEGREES IN THE NORTH TO SEVERAL ACROSS THE SOUTH (LOWER 40S TO MID 50S). && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SWING THROUGH NORTHERN ZONES OVERNIGHT ENHANCING CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLY KICKING OFF A FEW FLURRIES. MID LEVEL OVER-RUNNING SETTING UP SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT LOWS FROM THE MID 20S NORTH TO THE LOWER 30S SOUTH. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING SNOW TO INTERIOR SECTIONS OF MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. NEW GFS SLIGHTLY COLDER AND FARTHER OFFSHORE WITH AXIS OF HEAVIEST QPF. THIS SOLUTION WOULD KEEP PRECIP ALL SNOW EVEN IN COASTAL AREAS WHERE THE HIGHEST TOTALS WOULD BE FOUND. SLIGHTLY COLDER SOLUTION NOTED IN THE NEW ECMWF BUT WOULD STILL LIKELY SEE SOME MIXING IN COASTAL ZONES. ECMWF ALSO STICKING WITH QPF AMOUNTS NEARLY DOUBLE THAT OF THE GFS. SO A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY STILL IN PLAY. POTENTIAL FOR 6 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW IS THERE BUT WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF ON WATCHES AT THIS POINT FOR ABOVE MENTIONED REASONS. SNOW WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES NORTHEAST INTO THE MARITIMES. IF CURRENT MODEL PROJECTIONS HOLD WILL LIKELY SEE THE BULK OF THE SNOW FALLING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION ON THANKSGIVING DAY. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. WEAK SHORTWAVE SWINGING IN FROM THE WEST WILL ENHANCE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SOME AREAS SEEING SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY. EXPECT MORNING CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS TO GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHORT TERM...MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS TAF CYCLE WAS TIMING OF HEAVY RAIN THIS MORNING AND ITS IMPACTS ON CEILINGS. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON TO DRIZZLE BUT LOW STRATUS WILL REMAIN FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AS NO COLD FRONT ARRIVES TO SCOUR MOISTURE OUT UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. SOUTH WINDS WILL BE VERY GUSTY FOR A FEW HOURS WITH LLWS THIS MORNING. LONG TERM...VFR TUESDAY NIGHT. IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VSBY DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. VFR THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...GALE WARNING CONTINUES FOR ALL BUT CASCO BAY WHERE A SCA IS IN EFFECT. WILL NEED SCAS FOR ALL MARINE ZONES ONCE GALE WARNINGS EXPIRE LATE TONIGHT. LONG TERM...GALES LIKELY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ153. GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150>152-154. && $$ HANES/SINSABAUGH

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