Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Portland, ME
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000
FXUS61 KGYX 122015
AFDGYX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
415 PM EDT Tue Mar 12 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
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Gusty winds diminish tonight with a warming trend Wednesday into
Thursday. Waves of low pressure will cross New England Thursday
night and Friday bringing snow showers to the mountains and rain
showers south of the mountains. Saturday looks to be break in
systems before a trough develops over the Great Lakes and additional
systems approach early next week.-- End Changed Discussion --
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.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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A short wave ridge builds into the area tonight as low pressure east
of Nova Scotia continues to drift into the North Atlantic. Gusty NW
winds will diminish this evening with sheltered locations likely to
see winds go calm later tonight. Mostly clear skies and light winds
will allow for radiational cooling and have incorporated MOS guidance
into tonight`s low temperature forecast. Lows will generally be in
the upper 20s to low 30s while favorable radiational cooling spots
will drop to around 20 degrees.-- End Changed Discussion --
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.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
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A weak wave will slide east across southern Quebec Wednesday with a
modest warm air advection regime setting up over the area. Skies
will start off mostly clear with increasing clouds through the
afternoon. The majority of model solutions keep the forecast area
dry during the day Wednesday while the more bullish HRRR brings
scattered showers into the area Wednesday afternoon. I have hedged
toward the HRRR for PoPs Wednesday afternoon as there are some other
HREF members that suggest there could be some isolated rain showers
with a mix of rain and snow showers in the mountains. Highs will
range from the 40s north to 50s south and with winds turning onshore
during the afternoon, coastal areas will be a few degrees cooler
than the interior.
There will continue to be chances for isolated rain and snow showers
Wednesday night as the weak wave treks across the St Lawrence. Skies
will be mostly cloudy with lows in the upper 20s to the mid 30s.-- End Changed Discussion --
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.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Summary:
*Scattered rain and mountain snow showers possible from
Thursday, with more widespread precipitation in the forecast
for Friday.
*Rain and mountain snow likely to continue through the weekend,
and into early next week.
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Discussion:
Thursday will likely be the nicest day in the extended forecast with
partly cloudy skies, light winds and above average temperatures
in the forecast. There is a real possibility high temperatures
could exceed 60F in southern NH for the first time since last
Autumn.
However, weather patterns for this weekend suggest a return of
colder temperatures, with some rain and snow expected. An
upper-level low will move down from Canada, bringing a much
cooler airmass and several bouts of precipitation with it.
Generally speaking, more precipitation will fall as rain along
the coast and in southern NH, while more snow is expected up
north and in the mountains. Guidance still has not been doing
the best job resolving these repeated systems, but a weak
impulse should bring a few periods of precipitation Friday and
finally exit the region later in the morning Saturday.
The remainder of Saturday should stay mostly dry, and Sunday morning
looks to be the same. Sunday night, a low moves close to New
England, bringing more precipitation chances early next week.
Generally, temperatures near the climatological average are
expected through most of next week.-- End Changed Discussion --
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.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Short Term...VFR prevails tonight through Wednesday. Northwest
winds gusting to around 25 kts will continue to around 00Z this
evening. Surface winds will relax while low level winds will
remain strong for few hours into tonight that will bring
potential for LLWS across SE New Hampshire impacting KMHT and
KPSM. The threat for LLWS will diminish by 06Z tonight. Clouds
increase Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night while cigs
look to remain above MVFR thresholds.
Long Term...
Partly cloudy skies will bring VFR across the region Thursday.
Rain and snow move into the area Thursday night, bringing MVFR
to IFR CIGs to TAF sites. Intermittent periods of restrictions
are possible this weekend as scattered rain and snow showers
move through the region. Light and variable winds are expected
through the remainder of the week and into the start of the
weekend.-- End Changed Discussion --
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.MARINE...
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Short Term...Northwest winds will be on the downward trend into tonight
while gusts will still bring SCA conditions. Winds shift out of the
SE Wednesday with winds and seas remaining below SCA thresholds
through Wednesday night.
Long Term...
Light winds Thursday increase out of the northeast by Friday,
with SCA winds and seas unlikely. Light northeast winds
continue through the day Saturday, then increase out of the
south heading into Sunday. SCA level winds and seas are then
possible on Sunday.-- End Changed Discussion --
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.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ150>152-
154.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ153.-- End Changed Discussion --
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NEAR TERM...Schroeter
SHORT TERM...Schroeter
LONG TERM...Casey/Palmer