Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 170137 AAC AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 937 PM EDT THU OCT 16 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SET UP BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY TRACK SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AND WILL REDEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OFF THE EAST COAST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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.UPDATE... HAVE CANCELLED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NEW HAMPSHIRE AS THE HEAVY RAIN HAS MOVED NORTH OR INTO MAINE. SOME CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ARE MOVING INTO SOUTHERN NH BUT THIS SHOULD NOT ADD MUCH TO STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS. EVEN THOUGH THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED FOR NH... RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM EARLIER TONIGHT TOTALED 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS... AND RESIDUAL URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IS LIKELY. AREAS THAT RECEIVED THE MOST RAIN INCLUDED CRAWFORD NOTCH... EASTON... WOODSTOCK... WENTWORTH... HEBRON AND SALISBURY. DUAL POL RADAR SEEMS TO HAVE DONE A GOOD JOB ESTIMATING RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THIS EVENT. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR MAINE THROUGH 6 AM.
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&& PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... MADE FEW CHANGES OTHER THAN ADJUSTING HOURLY THERMAL PROFILES. MAIN AREA OF HEAVY RAIN IS NOW MOVING INTO EASTERN MAINE WITH THE MOST CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS OVER ANDROSCOGGIN AND CUMBERLAND COUNTIES. THESE FEATURES ARE HELPING TO CONTRIBUTE TO VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH DUAL POL 1 HR ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND 0.75" AND DUAL POL INSTANTANEOUS RAINFALL RATES AS HIGH AS 4-5 IN/HR. WRF ARW/NMM SHOW THIS CONVECTIVE SYSTEM TRANSLATING EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND INTENSIFYING AS IT DOES SO. SHOULD BE ABLE TO DROP A FEW COUNTIES FROM THE FF WATCH SHORTLY. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY WITH PASSAGE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH. HOWEVER...SHOULD BE A NICE WARM DAY MOST LOCATIONS. FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... COLD FRONT WILL SWING IN FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. EXPECT ANY PRECIP TO BE LIGHT AND SPOTTY...MAINLY IN NORTHWEST ZONES. HIGH TEMPS WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN MOST AREAS. DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY. WILL SEE A CONTINUING CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN NORTHERN ZONES. STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS UP. EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 40S SOUTH. SUNDAY LOOKING COOL AND BLUSTERY AS STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SPRINKLE. CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS WILL SEE A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE 40S NORTH TO LOWER TO MID 50S SOUTH. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS SPILLING IN FROM THE WEST BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO THE LOWER TO MID 30S SOUTH. VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY AS NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WILL SEE ANOTHER CHILLY DAY WITH HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 40S NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 50S. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT. EXPECT THICKENING CLOUDS WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. WILL LIKELY INCLUDE SOME LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE BUT EXPECT ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY TO BE LIGHT AND SPOTTY. LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AS IT HEADS NORTH ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL BECOME TRAPPED UNDER THE UPPER LOW ON WEDNESDAY. WILL AGAIN SEE THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND AND SOUTHWEST MAINE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SEEING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. && .AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SHORT TERM...LIFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT IN HEAVY RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS. IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR EXPECTED BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH CONDITIONS LIKELY REMAINING VFR FRIDAY NIGHT. LONG TERM...AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS SATURDAY. VFR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...SCA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KT AND SEAS/SWELLS OVER 5 FT. LONG TERM...SCA`S LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. && .HYDROLOGY...
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A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN AND CENTRAL MAINE. A GENERAL 1.5 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...WITH UP TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE IN FAVORED LOCATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.
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&& .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MEZ007>009-012>014- 018>028. NH...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
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&& $$ UPDATE...HANES

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