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359
FXUS61 KGYX 271927
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
327 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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A warm front will press through northern New England tonight
through Sunday bringing intermittent showers and temperatures on
on upward trend into Monday. Monday will be warm away from the
coast, with cooler temperatures along the coast where the sea
breeze develops. Low pressure approaches Tuesday into Wednesday
for more widespread showers and cooler temperatures. High
pressure will build in for the second half of the week.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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Surface high pressure centered along the southern New England
coastline will shift slightly offshore tonight while a warm front
over the eastern Great Lakes presses into western New England. This
front will bring increasing clouds overnight with chances for
showers, mainly over New Hampshire. Lows tonight will be in the low
to mid 40s across New Hampshire where cloud cover and increasing
dewpoints will limit cooling, while much of Maine drops into the low
to mid 30s where air mass will be drier.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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A short wave and associated surface low tracks across northern
Quebec Sunday with the warm front making some progress into New
Hampshire and far western Maine. Forcing for ascent will be limited
as a mid level ridge axis remains near overhead. Nevertheless,
there will be some chances for showers across the mountains
during the day with shower chances expanding to the coast Sunday
evening. Temperatures aloft will rise to around +15C at H9
across New Hampshire resulting in highs climbing into the low
70s. This warm air aloft does not quite get into Maine where
highs will be in the 60s across the interior and 50s near the
coast.

Relatively quiet weather continues Sunday night with low chances
for showers and low in the 40s to 50s.
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&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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-----------------------------------------------------------------
Summary:

*Monday looks to be the first 70F+ day of 2024 for a lot of people
in southern NH.

*More seasonable Tuesday and Wednesday, with showers moving through
in the Tues-Wednesday morning timeframe. Accumulations will be light.

*Tranquil Wednesday and Thursday with warmer temps returning on
Thursday and possibly more unsettled weather returning on Friday.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Discussion:
A strong upper-level high in Canada will pull apart a mid-
latitude system over the Great Lakes. Ahead of this system,
ridging will persist and will bring some of the warmest weather
we have seen since last Fall. High temperatures above 70F are
likely Monday across southern New Hampshire and even possibly as
far north as Lebanon or Fryeburg. Temperatures likely return to
average after the passage of the front as well as some cold air
advection from a quasi- backdoor front stalled over New
Brunswick inches westward into Maine.

The remnants of the aforementioned decaying system could bring some
showers into the region on Tuesday through Wednesday morning.
Measurable rainfall is possible across southern and western New
Hampshire, but any rain totals should be relatively light in nature
and not exceed a half inch.

High pressure moves into the region, bringing a tranquil Wednesday
and Thursday into the forecast before a similar decaying low brings
a few more showers into the area on Friday. Ridging looks to return
on Thursday, with 70s briefly returning to the forecast for the end
of the week.
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&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Short Term...Mainly VFR will prevail into tonight. Skies become
BKN to OVC tonight with cigs potentially lowering to MVFR
thresholds Sunday morning. Sunday will likely see mainly VFR
with tempo periods of MVFR cigs as a front brings scattered
showers into northern and western areas. Chances for showers
continue into Sunday night for more tempo MVFR conditions.


Long Term...
No restrictions expected on Monday with partly
cloudy skies and northerly winds expected. Some showers are
possible Tuesday through Wednesday morning, with some occasional
MVFR expected. Otherwise no notable restrictions expected in
the extended forecast at this time.
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&&

.MARINE...
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Short Term...Winds and seas remain below SCA thresholds tonight
through Sunday night.


Long Term...
Seas of 2-3 ft with 15kt winds expected on Monday. Winds
quickly flip Monday afternoon as the sea breeze moves in but winds
return to more calmer northerlies in the evening. Northerly winds
pick up overnight, peaking at 20kts. An SCA is possible but not
expected for Monday night / Tuesday morning. Winds and seas
remain below SCA level after Tuesday.
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&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


NEAR TERM...Schroeter
SHORT TERM...Schroeter
LONG TERM...Palmer