Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 260749 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 349 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EAST THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY PROVIDING MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS AND MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS. SOMEWHAT MORE HUMID WEATHER WILL RETURN THIS WEEKEND AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT MAY BRING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE REGION BY SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... PLENTY OF FOG AND STRATUS AGAIN THIS MORNING...AND IT WILL LINGER INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS ONCE AGAIN...AS SURFACE TROF IS SLOW TO MOVE E OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE TROF IS EXPECTED TO SPEND MUCH OF THE DAY HANGING AROUND THE MIDCOAST...SO CLOUDS HERE WILL HANG TOUGH THE LONGEST. IN ADDITION...THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN. CONDITIONS FROM YESTERDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING HAVEN/T CHANGED A WHOLE LOT...SO ANTICIPATE THAT THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE FOR VERY HEAVY RNFL. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED SEVERE WX...BUT AS FLOW BECOMES MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL TODAY WE LOSE SOME OF THE SHEAR THAT WAS GENERATED WITH TURNING ALOFT YESTERDAY. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FOR MUCH OF COASTAL ME AND NH. A 3 TO 4 FT SWELL NEAR 10 SECONDS CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE COASTAL WATERS...AND WITH FAVORABLE TIDES FOR RIPS DURING THE DAY TODAY...AS WELL AS RECENT RESCUES...EXPECT CONDITIONS HAVEN/T CHANGED ENOUGH TO DROP TO LOW RISK. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGH PRES BEGINS TO MOVE IN TONIGHT...WITH FLOW FINALLY TURNING MORE OFFSHORE. SURFACE TROF LINGERS ACROSS CENTRAL ME...SO SOME RETURN OF THE MARINE FOG/LOW CLOUDS IS POSSIBLE FOR THE PENOBSCOT BAY AREA. OTHERWISE NOT EXPECTING THE WIDESPREAD FOG OF THE PAST FEW NIGHTS. THU THE UPPER TROF FINALLY CROSSES THE AREA AND ALLOWS THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS TO BUILD IN. WITH THE TROF PASSAGE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MTNS. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY EVENING WILL PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH SATURDAY BRING MOSTLY SUNNY/CLEAR SKIES TO MUCH OF THE REGION WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITIES. EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG LIKELY EARLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST SATURDAY, THE RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL BRING INCREASING HUMIDITY TO THE REGION. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. WITH MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT, THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR TSTMS WITH THE GREATEST THREAT IN THE MOUNTAINS. MODELS DIVERGE A BIT EARLY NEXT WEEK ON MOVEMENT OF SYSTEMS...BUT WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. && .AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SHORT TERM...WIDESPREAD LIFR CONDITIONS AGAIN LINGER THRU THIS MORNING IN FOG AND STRATUS. GRADUALLY THINGS IMPROVE TO VFR BY THIS AFTERNOON FOR MOST OF THE AREA. ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE NEAR AUG AND RKD...WHERE LINGERING FRONT WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHRA AND TSRA. HIGH PRES BEGINS TO MOVE IN FOR TONIGHT AND THU...WITH PATCHY VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR MORNING VALLEY FOG IN FAVORED LOCATIONS. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS AGAIN EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. MARINE FOG AND STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE DURING THE DAY TODAY. IT IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP BY TONIGHT ACROSS COASTAL ME WATERS...BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE W THU. LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SCA CRITERIA. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...LEGRO SHORT TERM...LEGRO LONG TERM...JENSENIUS

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