Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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777 FXUS61 KGYX 150237 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 937 PM EST Sat Jan 14 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure shifts east and weakens through today, allowing a weak cold front to move through the area early Sunday. It will not produce more than some clouds and a few flurries in the mountains. High pressure will build in behind the front Sunday afternoon through Monday. The high pressure shifts east on Tuesday and will allow a southwest flow of warmer air into the region. Weak low pressure crosses the region mid-week and will bring rain to coastal areas and mixed precipitation inland Tuesday night into Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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930 pm Update: Forecast continues on track with no changes needed at this time. Mid level clouds continue across the area but will be dissipating after midnight as drier air to the west works into the region. 650 pm update: Input latest mesonet data. Forecast looks in good shape. Only very minor tweaks to temps based on latest obs. Previous Discussion: Quite a few clouds continue to enter Maine and New Hampshire from the west. This moisture is in connection with weak low pressure passing by to our south with a cyclonic flow and a weather disturbance passing by to our north during the overnight hours. This will allow for varying amounts of cloudiness with the most in the north. Minimum temperature forecast will be challenging overnight. Any areas that remain clear for a period will allow for radiational cooling, while cloud cover will hold up temperatures in other regions. In any case, expect single numbers for overnight lows in the north to the teens along the coast. This is a warm up of 10+ degrees in some areas from last nights lows.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Mesoscale models suggest the developing northwest flow will allow for a few upslope flurries or snow showers across the higher terrain Sunday morning. Locally there could be a coating of snow. However, all in all, the lower levels of the atmosphere will be relatively moisture starved with this passing cold front and reinforcement of below normal temperatures. Thereafter, high pressure crests overhead Sunday night for a clear and chilly night over many areas with little in the way of wind. There will be some cloudiness hanging tough over northern areas with some warm air advection cirrus over all areas late. If the high level moisture does not enter the region until late at night, this could be a target of opportunity to lower min temperatures a few degrees below what guidance would suggest. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Models are in decent agreement on the longwave pattern through late next week. However...the split flow regime and increasing model spread in both individual shortwave timing and strength leads to steadily decreasing confidence in sensible weather details by the second half of the new work week. Overall...the northern stream will keep arctic air bottled up to our north and we`ll see temperatures average above normal for the period. In the dailies...a weak impulse and associated disturbance pass to our north on Monday. Otherwise...a ridge of high pressure should provide quiet weather for much of Monday and Tuesday. A shortwave impulse and associated surface low approach from the Great Lakes for Tuesday night and Wednesday with a secondary low advertised to develop late Wednesday. Warmer air will surge northward into the area ahead of the system with rain over southern and coastal sections and a mix across the interior. As the coastal low becomes dominant Wednesday night...colder air being drawn into the area may change precipitation back to snow across the higher terrain. A lingering upper trough and upslope flow should produce some clouds as well as a few mountain snow showers. A ridge of high pressure should then slide east across the region for Friday. && .AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Short Term...Mainly VFR conditions with the exception of upslope conditions in northern areas with possible MVFR conditions in any scattered flurries at HIE and the higher terrain late tonight and early Sunday. Long Term... Tue night - Wed...IFR in RA and mtn SN/RA with areas of LIFR. Southerly sfc wnd Wed gusting to 30 kt. Wed night - Thu...areas of MVFR in mtn shsn. && .MARINE... Short Term...Have issued SCAs for late tonight into Sunday evening. This matches up well with our neighbors current flags. Developing NW flow and cold air advection will make for gusty conditions and choppy seas over the coastal waters. Long Term... Mon...Small Craft conditions are possible. Wed...Small craft conditions are possible. With gale force gusts outside the bays. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM to 7 PM EST Sunday for ANZ150- 152-154. && $$

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