Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
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FXUS61 KGYX 150237
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
937 PM EST Sat Jan 14 2017
High pressure shifts east and weakens through today, allowing a
weak cold front to move through the area early Sunday. It will
not produce more than some clouds and a few flurries in the
mountains. High pressure will build in behind the front Sunday
afternoon through Monday. The high pressure shifts east on Tuesday
and will allow a southwest flow of warmer air into the region.
Weak low pressure crosses the region mid-week and will bring rain
to coastal areas and mixed precipitation inland Tuesday night into
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --930 pm Update: Forecast continues on track with no changes needed
at this time. Mid level clouds continue across the area but will
be dissipating after midnight as drier air to the west works into
650 pm update: Input latest mesonet data. Forecast looks in good
shape. Only very minor tweaks to temps based on latest obs.
Quite a few clouds continue to enter Maine and New Hampshire from
the west. This moisture is in connection with weak low pressure
passing by to our south with a cyclonic flow and a weather
disturbance passing by to our north during the overnight hours.
This will allow for varying amounts of cloudiness with the most in
the north. Minimum temperature forecast will be challenging
overnight. Any areas that remain clear for a period will allow for
radiational cooling, while cloud cover will hold up temperatures
in other regions. In any case, expect single numbers for overnight
lows in the north to the teens along the coast. This is a warm up
of 10+ degrees in some areas from last nights lows.
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.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Mesoscale models suggest the developing northwest flow will allow
for a few upslope flurries or snow showers across the higher
terrain Sunday morning. Locally there could be a coating of snow.
However, all in all, the lower levels of the atmosphere will be
relatively moisture starved with this passing cold front and
reinforcement of below normal temperatures.
Thereafter, high pressure crests overhead Sunday night for a clear
and chilly night over many areas with little in the way of wind.
There will be some cloudiness hanging tough over northern areas
with some warm air advection cirrus over all areas late. If the
high level moisture does not enter the region until late at night,
this could be a target of opportunity to lower min temperatures
a few degrees below what guidance would suggest.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Models are in decent agreement on the longwave pattern through
late next week. However...the split flow regime and increasing
model spread in both individual shortwave timing and strength
leads to steadily decreasing confidence in sensible weather
details by the second half of the new work week. Overall...the
northern stream will keep arctic air bottled up to our north and
we`ll see temperatures average above normal for the period. In the
dailies...a weak impulse and associated disturbance pass to our
north on Monday. Otherwise...a ridge of high pressure should
provide quiet weather for much of Monday and Tuesday. A shortwave
impulse and associated surface low approach from the Great Lakes
for Tuesday night and Wednesday with a secondary low advertised to
develop late Wednesday. Warmer air will surge northward into the
area ahead of the system with rain over southern and coastal
sections and a mix across the interior. As the coastal low becomes
dominant Wednesday night...colder air being drawn into the area
may change precipitation back to snow across the higher terrain. A
lingering upper trough and upslope flow should produce some clouds
as well as a few mountain snow showers. A ridge of high pressure
should then slide east across the region for Friday.
.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Short Term...Mainly VFR conditions with the exception of upslope
conditions in northern areas with possible MVFR conditions in any
scattered flurries at HIE and the higher terrain late tonight and
Tue night - Wed...IFR in RA and mtn SN/RA with areas of LIFR.
Southerly sfc wnd Wed gusting to 30 kt.
Wed night - Thu...areas of MVFR in mtn shsn.
Short Term...Have issued SCAs for late tonight into Sunday evening.
This matches up well with our neighbors current flags. Developing
NW flow and cold air advection will make for gusty conditions and
choppy seas over the coastal waters.
Mon...Small Craft conditions are possible.
Wed...Small craft conditions are possible. With gale force gusts
outside the bays.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM to 7 PM EST Sunday for ANZ150-