Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KGYX 281401 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 1001 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE TODAY...BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. THE SYSTEM WILL EXIT INTO THE MARITIMES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN ALONG OR JUST OFF THE COAST TUESDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH ALONG THE BOUNDARY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
UPDATED TO ADJUST CHC OF SHRA/TSTMS PER RADAR. AREA MOVING TO THE N ACROSS NH AND ADJACENT EXTREME WRN AND SW MAINE AT THIS TIME WITH LITTLE OR NO PRCP ACROSS MUCH OF OUR NRN AND ERN MAINE ZONES. PRCP WILL EXPAND ACROSS REST OF OUR MAINE ZONES WHILE SRN EDGE OF PRCP PUSHES N ACROSS NH AND POSSIBLY INTO SW MAINE. HOWEVER...MORE PRCP TO DEVELOP/MOVE INTO THESE AREAS AS THE DAY GOES ON. AREAS OF FOG ...SOME QUITE DENSE TO LAST THRU THE MORNING. ANY OTHER CHANGES JUST MINOR BASED ON LATEST OBSERVED DATA. PREV DISC: THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE ACCOMPANIED BY FAIRLY HIGH PWAT`S WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE NEWD ACROSS NH/WRN ME TODAY. CONFIDENT OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WITH THIS SYSTEM SO VERY HI POPS ARE FCST ACROSS ALL AREAS TODAY. SFC TEMPS WILL BE COOL BUT EVEN STILL SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION EXPECTED AND SOME OF THE TSTORMS MAY BECOME STRONG. HEAVY DOWNPOURS A CERTAINTY AND QPF TOTALS SHOULD AVG .75-1.0 INCH MOST AREAS WITH SOME PSBLY HIGHER AMTS. DUE TO THE TRACK OF THE LOW STAYING INLAND...LATER IN THE DAY SOME DRIER AIR MAY TRY TO WORK INTO SRN AREAS IN THE FORM OF A DRY SLOT SO SOME PARTIAL CLEARING CAN`T BE RULED OUT. AREAS OF FOG CURRENTLY ACROSS ALL OF THE FA AND THIS WILL PERSIST THRU MID MORNING BEFORE ENOUGH MIXING WITH THE CONVECTION WIPES OUT THE LOW LEVEL STABLE LAYERS AND THE FOG. USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR POPS AND TEMPS. USED THE HRRR FOR TIMING ONSET OF CONVECTION THIS MORNING SINCE IT HAS BEEN DOING QUITE WELL WITH TIMING. RFCQPF WAS ACCEPTED.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... THE CENTER OF LOW PRES MOVES OFF TO THE NE TONIGHT ALLOWING A DRIER CANADIAN AIR MASS TO WORK INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AFTER SOME EVENING SHWRS AND PSBL TSTMS. THE SYSTEM EXITS INTO THE MARITIMES TUE ALLOWING FURTHER CLEARING AS HIGH PRES OVER THE GT LAKES FOLLOWS INTO THE AREA IN ITS WAKE WITH A DRY STABLE WLY FLO DEVELOPING. CLOUDS AND A FEW SHWRS MAY LINGER IN THE MTNS EARLY TUE MRNG DUE TO THE UPPER TROF...ELSEWHERE SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY TO MOSUN. TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGS WARMER TUE REACHING THE MID 70S MOST AREAS. USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR TEMPS/POPS AND TIMING OF CLEARING. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER AROUND THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WE EXPECT FAIR WEATHER TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED. HOWEVER...COOL AIR ALOFT AND OCCASIONAL SPOKES OF VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL LOW MAY ALLOW FOR DAILY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDER THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. NO COMPLETE WASHOUTS ARE IN THE CARDS AT THIS POINT...BUT SHOWERY WEATHER WILL BE COMMON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THE COASTAL PLAIN MAY BR DRY MOST DAYS. && .AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...VARIABLE CONDITIONS RANGING FROM MVFR TO LIFR TODAY WITH AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS/DENSE F THIS MORNING WITH SHRA/TSTMS ON AND OFF THRU THE DAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. CONDS SLOWLY IMPROVE TNGT TO VFR XCPT MVFR CIGS PERSISTING IN THE MTNS INTO TUESDAY AND THERE MAY BE SOME F AROUND TNGT DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL SATURATING LOW LEVELS. SHOULD BECOME VFR EVERYWHERE ON TUESDAY. LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH A THREAT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD PRODUCE MVFR OR POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD FROM THU THRU SAT. THE CONVECTION WILL BE MOSTLY CONFINED DURING THE DAYTIME INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS...AND MOSTLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THE COASTAL PLAIN MAY RETAIN VFR CONDITIONS MUCH OF THE TIME UNLESS ONSHORE FLOW MOISTENS UP AND PRODUCES SOME STRATUS.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...UPDATED TO INPUT LATEST OBSERVED DATA RESULTING IN NO MORE THAN A FEW TWEAKS TO THE FCST FOR THE REST OF TODAY. SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 KT TODAY BUT NOT FREQUENT ENOUGH FOR SCA CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...STILL EXPECT WINDS/GUSTS TO REACH SCA LEVELS BY EARLY THIS EVE WHICH WILL CREATE ROUGH SEAS SO WILL LEAVE THE SCA UP FOR TNGT AND TUESDAY. LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE TUESDAY NIGHT. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD EXCEPT PERHAPS FOR A TIME ON THU WHEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP A BIT.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154. && $$

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.