Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 291035 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 635 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY EXIT INTO THE MARITIMES TODAY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS OVER THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A REINFORCING COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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630 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT RADAR TREND AND INGEST THE CURRENT MESONET INTO FIRST PERIOD GRIDS. PREV DISC... AT 06Z...AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHED FROM DOWNEAST MAINE INTO EASTERN NEW YORK STATE. AN UPPER LOW WAS APPARENT ON GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC. NWS DOPPLER RADAR MOSAIC INDICATED SCATTERED ECHOES UPSTREAM OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC. THE UPPER LOW WILL EVENTUALLY LIFT OUT AND GIVE RISE TO SLOW IMPROVEMENT WITH DIMINISHING POPS AND CLOUD COVER. HIGHS TOP OUT ONLY IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER LONGEST...WITH MID 60S TO AROUND 70F FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. WHILE THAT`LL BE A GOOD TEN TO FIFTEEN DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE DATE...IT`LL BE A NOTICEABLE IMPROVEMENT FROM SUNDAY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... PARTIAL CLEARING TONIGHT UNDER WEAK RIDGING WITH SOME LATE NIGHT VALLEY FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS THE INTERIOR. LOWS SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 50S...WITH A FEW UPPER 40S IN THE NORMALLY COOLER VALLEYS. SUNSHINE ON TUESDAY GIVES WAY TO CLOUDS OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON IN WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE FROM THE GREAT LAKES. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 70S...WITH A FEW 80 DEGREE READINGS CONFINED TO EXTREME SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. A FEW LATE DAY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND THE WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS...OTHERWISE IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TOMORROW. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... NEXT UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND MIDWEEK. IT WILL MOVE THROUGH IN TWO PIECES... THE FIRST SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS CLOSER TO THE CANADIAN BORDER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE THE PRIMARY TROUGH AXIS CROSSES NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY. ONSHORE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL ON WEDNESDAY... THOUGH A LITTLE WARMER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AROUND DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY TO SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL... THOUGH THE EXTENT OF DESTABILIZATION WILL PROBABLY DEPEND A LOT ON CLOUD COVER. ALTHOUGH THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT... THE BROADER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST AS ANOTHER WAVE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES TO REPLACE IT ON THURSDAY. SHOULD SEE A WARMER DAY ON THURSDAY WITH 70S WIDESPREAD DURING THE AFTERNOON. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE BROADER TROUGH STILL AROUND. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY... BUT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE BENEATH A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY... TRACKING OFFSHORE OF CAPE COD ON SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME THIS FEATURE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ALL THAT STRONG AS MID AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE NOT ALIGNING WELL WITH IT. AS A RESULT IT MAY NOT HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON WEATHER IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR THE INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND. IT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED THOUGH AS THERE STILL REMAIN SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS ON WHERE TO TRACK THE LOW. THE CLOSER IT GETS TO THE COAST THE BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN FOR OUR AREA. BUT FOR NOW THE LOW DOES NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A TOTAL WASHOUT FOR THE FOURTH. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH 23Z TUE/...IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DAWN IN RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID MORNING. SCATTERED MVFR 07 - 11Z TUESDAY IN VALLEY STRATUS AND FOG. VFR TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED MVFR AFTER 18Z IN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. LONG TERM...SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST ONSHORE FLOW COULD BRING IN SOME LOWER CLOUDS AND MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS MAINE. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...SCA REPLACED WITH AN SCA FOR SEAS THROUGH 21Z TODAY AS SEAS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH. QUIET TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS WEAK RIDGE TRAVERSES THE WATERS. LONG TERM...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL KEEP WINDS FAIRLY LIGHT AND SEAS GENERALLY 3 FEET OR LESS. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING OFFSHORE OF CAPE COD COULD BRING NORTHEAST FLOW TO THE GULF OF MAINE ON SATURDAY BUT AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ150-152-154. && $$ ES

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