Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 141858 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 258 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD INTO MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY. A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR ARRIVES WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THROUGH FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS SATURDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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SFC HIGH SPREADS ACROSS CWA OVERNIGHT REMOVING ANY PRES GRAD. AS HEATING AND WINDS DIE OFF THIS EVE...SHOULD GO CLEAR AND GENERALLY CALM ACROSS ENTIRE CWA. COMBINE WITH COOL AIR ALOFT /0-5C/ SHOULD SEE TEMPS FALL INTO THE THE 30S IN MANY INLAND SPOTS...AND TO THE LOW 40S ON THE COAST. FROST ADV WILL REMAIN AS THEY ARE...BASED ON LATEST FORECAST MINS. THE BIG QUESTION IN SOME SPOTS WILL BE THE FOG VS FROST PROBLEM AS TDS ARE IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40...AND ITS A TOUGH CALL ON EXACTLY WHERE THE FOG WILL FORM AHEAD OF FROST...ALTHOUGH THE CT VLY IS ALWAYS A GOOD BET FOR THE FOG.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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ON MONDAY...THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE...WITH A MORE SW FLOW DEVELOPING...WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM UP A BIT MORE THAN SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AT INLAND AREAS NEAR THE COAST...WITH THE COAST BEING JUST A FEW DEGREES COOLER. SHOULD SEE A LOT OF SUN EVERYWHERE...EVEN IN THE MTNS...WITH ONLY CIRRUS TO CONTEND WITH. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE NRN ZONES TO REACH TO 60 OR ABOVE...WHICH WILL BE ABOUT A TEN DEGREE IMPROVEMENT ON SUNDAY. A WEAK 500MB WAVE APPROACHES THE WEST MON NIGHT...AND WILL SEE CLOUDS BEGIN TO THICKEN DURING THE EVENING...WITH THE THREAT OF SOME SHRA AFTER MIDNIGHT..ESPECIALLY IN NH...ALTHOUGH BEST CHC FOR SHRA WILL BE DURING TUESDAY. GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND WARMER SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM MINS WILL ALSO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN SUNDAY NIGHT...IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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ONLY APPRECIABLE CHANCE AT PCPN IN THE EXTENDED OCCURS VERY EARLY IN THE PERIOD ON TUE. WEAK S/WV AND ATTENDANT COLD FNT WILL CROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY. SHOWERS WILL CLEAR THE AREA IN THE EVENING...WITH HIGH PRES BRINGING CLEARING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. NRN STREAM S/WV THEN DRIVES A MUCH STRONGER COLD FNT THRU THE REGION LATE WED AND THU. 14/12Z GFS REMAINS THE COLDER OF THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE...WITH H8 TEMPS ACROSS NRN ZONES APPROACHING -4 C. 14/12Z ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLES ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT NEAR -2 C. THAT BEING SAID...THIS TYPE OF AIR MASS AND STRONG HIGH PRES CENTERED OVERHEAD WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD READINGS IN THE 30S...AND A FEW SUB-FREEZING MIN TEMPS ACROSS THE N. HIGH PRES REMAINS IN CONTROL FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...WITH SEASONABLY COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE. BY SAT AS SFC RIDGE AXIS MOVES EWD SWLY FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE REGION AND ALLOW SOME MILDER AIR TO WORK BACK IN OUR DIRECTION. EVENTUALLY ANOTHER S/WV TROF WILL APPROACH THE AREA...BUT MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS GREATLY ON TIMING. AT THIS RANGE I WILL NOT BE BITING ON ANY ONE SOLUTION...BUT OFFER A CHANCE OF SHOWERS STARTING SUN.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR THROUGH MON NIGHT. ONLY ISSUES WILL BE VLY FOG TONIGHT AT KHIE/KLEB. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHC THAT MVFR CIGS COULD MOVE INTO INLAND NH TERMINALS LATE MON NIGHT. LONG TERM...MVFR OR LOWER CIGS ARE POSSIBLE TUE AS FNT CROSSES THE AREA. CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR QUICKLY BEHIND THE FROPA EXCEPT FOR UPSLOPE REGIONS OF NRN NH AND WRN ME. HIGH PRES NOSING INTO THE REGION COULD RESULT IN SOME VALLEY FOG WED MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.
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&& .MARINE...
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SHORT TERM...NW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...AND WINDS/SEAS STAY QUIET THROUGH MON NIGHT. LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR LIKELY ON THE OUTER WATERS THU AS A STRONG COLD FNT CROSSES THE WATERS.
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&& .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MEZ007>009-012. NH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NHZ001>009. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...CEMPA SHORT TERM...CEMPA LONG TERM...LEGRO AVIATION...CEMPA/LEGRO MARINE...CEMPA/LEGRO

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