Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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FXUS61 KGYX 121138
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
738 AM EDT Tue Mar 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will exit to the east of the Canadian Maritimes
today with gusty winds through the daytime hours. Winds will
then weaken tonight through Thursday as high pressure builds
over New England. Unsettled weather is then possible late week
and into the upcoming weekend but no major systems are currently
anticipated. Could see a cool down early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
730 AM Update... Minor changes to reflect latest observational
trends. Mainly clear skies prevail south of the mountains,
although there are some clouds hovering over eastern areas due
to the closer proximity to the low pressure system. These will
exit later this morning though as drier air arrives and low
pressure continues it`s eastward movement.

Previously...
Latest RAP13 pressure analysis early this morning shows
vertically stacked low pressure located over the Canadian
Maritimes with cyclonic northwesterly flow persisting over New
England. Nighttime microphysics satellite imagery shows mainly
clear skies over the region with the exception of some lingering
strato-cumulus over northern NH, the western Maine mountains,
and northern and eastern Maine. Radar imagery shows some weak
returns over the western ME mountains but the column is fairly
dry and thus would not expect more than a flurry over the higher
terrain. Current temperatures are into the 20s to middle 30s
from north to south but occasional wind gusts nearing 30 kts is
making it feel colder.

Today will feature another day of gusty northwesterly winds,
although they will not be as strong as compared to Monday. The
pressure gradient between departing low pressure to our east and
an approaching ridge to our west will be weakening but soundings
via BUFKIT indicate deep mixing up to around 850 mb or so. This
will allow for wind gusts between generally 30-35 mph but a few
gusts closer to 40 mph will be possible, especially early in the
day. It will otherwise be a mainly sunny day with low relative
humidity into the 20-30 percent range (mainly over southern
locations). Given the dry airmass and plethora of sunshine that
is expected, went on the warm end of guidance, which places
highs into the middle 40s to middle 50s south of the mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
Winds will quickly dissipate this evening as we lose daytime
mixing and sfc high pressure begins to build over the region.
These weakening winds, clear overnight skies, and low dew points
should allow for good radiational cooling conditions. Therefore,
used MOS guidance heavily for overnight lows, which places
northern spots into the teens to near 20 and then 20s to near 30
degrees south.

An upper level ridge axis will arrive on Wednesday as sfc high
pressure builds to our northwest. There is some indication that
a weak wave of energy could arrive during the evening but the
airmass looks very dry and thus the only real impact will
probably be some increase in cloudiness late in the day and
evening. It will otherwise be a very nice day with partly to
mostly sunny skies, light winds, and warm high temperatures into
the middle to upper 50s south of the mountains. A few places in
southern NH could approach 60 degrees if enough sun is
realized. The weak flow could allow for a sea breeze to develop
though, which would keep the coast cooler given the still cold
SSTs.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
500 MB pattern across NOAM starts as slightly anticyclonic
zonal flow mid week, which transitions to more highly amplified
flow by the end of the weekend, and fairly deep and cold trough
gets carved out to our W. Withing the forecast we should
generally stay above normal temps in this pattern, or at least
not fall below normal. The gradually deterioration of the
anticyclonic zonal flow by late week will lead to a more
unsettled pattern Friday through the weekend, although may see a
break late Saturday or Sunday, but too far out attm, to have
high confidence in this. The trend is for below normal to move
in early next week.

Thursday looks mild, although clouds will increase during the
day, but still should hold as p/sunny for most of the day. Highs
range from 45-50 in the mtns to 50-55 in central ME and the
coast, pushing to near 60 in srn NH. Thursday night becomes
cloudy and introduces the chc for some SHRA /potentially some
SHSN in the mtns, especially at elevation/. Expecting a steadier
precip Friday into Friday night, but for now looks more on the
light side, with the highest QPF in the S, and could be a mix of
RASN in the N, with all SN possible on the high terrain. Highs
Friday will be lowered by the clouds and precip and highs will
be mostly in the 40s, but maybe around 50 in interior S NH.

The 00Z models runs seem to make Saturday look like a dry, but
potentially mostly cloudy day. It`ll little cooler in NE flow,
with highs in the 40s again. Another round of showers possible
Sunday into Sunday as a more significant cold front moves
through Sunday night, then colder for Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Short Term...VFR conditions through at least Wednesday.
Northwesterly winds will continue to gust up to around 35 kts at
times through 00Z Wednesday before weakening tonight and
remaining light on Wednesday.

Long Term...Mainly VFR expected Wed night into Thu, but will
likely see fog and stratus develop Thu night, with some showers
possible in the S. Expecting flight restrictions to persist
through Friday and into at least Friday evening in precip and
low cigs. I think improvement to VFR possible by Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Gale force northwesterly winds will persist
through early this afternoon before diminishing to SCA
thresholds through the first half of tonight and then below 25
kts late tonight through Wednesday. Seas will also be
diminishing.

Long Term...Winds remain on the light side Wed night through
Friday, but may see some NE winds freshen to near SCA levels
late Friday night into Sat.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Tubbs
SHORT TERM...Tubbs
LONG TERM...Cempa


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