Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 261606 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 1206 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING EAST INTO THE MARITIMES ON SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL SLOWLY TRACK NORTHEAST UP THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE. A WEAKER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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---1205PM UPDATE--- MOST OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE IS ON TRACK. THE EXCEPTION BEING CLOUD COVER. AS SHOWERS HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES HAVE BECOME PREVALENT OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. HAVE TWEAKED SKY CONDITION TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS AND UPDATED TEMPERATURES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INCREASED SUNSHINE. ---940AM UPDATE--- ONLY A COUPLE OF SHOWERS LEFT OVER SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND EXTREME SOUTHERN MAINE. EXPECT THESE TO DIMINISH IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HAVE TWEAKED TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST PACKAGE IS LARGELY IN GOOD SHAPE. 625 AM UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST. CAT POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN NH AND YOTK COUNTY ME FOR THE ONGOING RAINFALL CONTINUE FOR TIL ABOUT 12-13Z. THEREAFTER...A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS WITH A FEW SPOT SHOWERS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY. PREVIOUSLY... A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. LIGHT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WEATHER SYSTEM ARE CURRENTLY FALLING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NH AS OF 07Z AND WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO SOUTHERNMOST MAINE PRIOR TO 12Z. THESE SHOWERS ARE VERY LIGHT AND ARE BARELY MEASURING. SOME INSTABILITY DEVELOPS TODAY AS SOME HEATING TAKES PLACE IN TANDEM WITH INCREASINGLY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THIS MAY SPARK A FEW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT AND ALLOWS FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG MAY DEVELOP IN THE RIVER VALLEYS LATE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. A MOSTLY SUNNY START WILL BE REPLACED BY INCREASING CLOUDS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AS A UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL INCREASE AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN ACROSS SWRN NH BY LATE AFTERNOON. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND UP THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND MUCH OF SUNDAY WILL CREATE AN SIGNIFICANT OVERRUNING RAIN EVENT ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWESTERN MAINE. LESSER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO THE NORTH AND EAST. WHILE DAMP WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY...THE HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOWERY WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY AS A CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. MODELS ARE HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY RESOLVING THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF WEAK SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY WITH GFS CONSIDERABLY STRONGER THAN ECMWF. BOTH MODELS SHOWING DRIER WEATHER LATE NEXT WEEK AS STORM TRACK SHIFTS SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. && .AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z SUN/...A FEW POCKETS OF MVFR POSSIBLE TODAY IN SHOWERS...BUT MOST AREAS VFR. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN POSSIBLY DEVELOPING IN SW NH BY 21Z SAT. LONG TERM...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY IN PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND FOG...WITH FOG POSSIBLY PERSISTING INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLD TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE INCREASING SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH GALES POSSIBLE. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD IMPROVE SUNDAY NIGHT MONDAY...AND MONDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY TO CONTINUE DUE TO HIGH SEAS. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION... MARINE...

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