000
FXUS61 KGYX 111950
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
350 PM EDT SAT MAY 11 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
USHERING SOME COLDER AIR FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH
ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
MAIN FEATURE FOR THIS EVE AND TONIGHT WILL BE PASSAGE OF SFC COLD
FRONT ANS ASSOCIATED CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
TIMING OF 40+ KT LOW LVL JET JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD HELP
ENHANCE...AT THE LEAST COVERAGE OF THE CONVECTION AND THE
RAINFALL...AS FAIRLY MOIST AIRMASS MOVING NE ACROSS THE CWA IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALTHOUGH SOME SHRA ARE CROSSING THE AREA...THE
BEST CHC FOR TSRA AND HEAVIER RAIN WILL BE IN THE 21Z-03Z RANGE.
WATCHING CLUSTER OF CONVECTION...ACROSS SE NY AREA AT
1930Z...WHICH LOOKS TO BE LOCATION OF LOW LVL ATTM. ALTHOUGH SOME
INSTABILITY WILL EXIST GIVEN MOIST AIR IN PLACE...IT WILL LKLY NOT BE
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ANY STRONG STORMS...BUT SOME SMALL HAIL AND A
FEW GUSTY WINDS COULD OCCUR AS ANY STORMS MOVE THROUGH THIS EVE.
MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS CONVECTION WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR BACK
BUILDING AND TRAINING...ESPECIALLY WHERE LOW LVL JET PINS THE
CONVECTION TO TERRAIN FEATURES.

SOME SHRA WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN ERN
ZONES. LLJ WILL HAVE SHIFTED NE OF THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND
THE THREAT OF ANY CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SECOND COLD FRONT CROSS THE CWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER
ROUND SHRA EXPECTED...MAINLY IN THE MTNS AND IN WESTERN ME. THE
FURTHER NE YOU ARE IN THE CWA...THE BETTER CHC FOR SEEING SHRA.
CANNOT RULE A TSRA...HOWEVER...DRIER AIR COMING IN BEHIND THE
FIRST FRONT...AND LESS VERTICAL SHEAR...WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT.

THAT FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE CWA BY LATE AFT OR EARLY EVE...AND
COLDER AIR FILTERS IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH LOWS INTO
THE 30S TO LOW 40S. SHOULD BE ENOUGH FLOW TO PREVENT FROST ALONG
THE COAST...WHICH IS THE ONLY AREA WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS
STARTED ATTM.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION MONDAY WITH FROST EXPECTED
BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT MOUNTAIN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
MONDAY AFTN AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. THE CORE OF THE COLD
AIR WILL MOVE EAST WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES WITH
SHOWERS MOVING IN LATE IN THE DAY OR EVENING. THERE IS SOME
INDICATION THAT THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH SHOWERS LINGERING INTO THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...COASTAL TERMINALS AND KAUG LOOK TO REMAIN MOSTLY IFR
OR LOWER THRU TONIGHT. KCON/KLEB/KHIE WILL SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR TO
IFR LATER TONIGHT. ALL TERMINALS LOOK TO GRADUAL IMPROVE TO VFR
DURING SUN MORNING.

LONG TERM...VFR EXPECTED MONDAY...COULD HAVE SOME MVFR CEILINGS AT
LEB AND HIE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH. VFR MONDAY NIGHT WITH ISOLATED
MVFR PATCHY FOG. VFR TUESDAY. MVFR/IFR PSBL IN PATCHY FOG TUESDAY
NIGHT. VFR WED WITH MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VSBY MOVING IN WED NIGHT
AND LASTING INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HAVE DROPPED THE GENERAL SCA IN FAVOR OF A HAZ SEAS
SCA OUTSIDE THE BAYS. COMBO OF WIND WAVES AND SWELL RIGHT
NOW...LOOK TO TRANSITION TO SWELL OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE WIND GUSTS
TO 20 KT...BUT THEY SHOULD REMAIN BLO SCA. THESE CONDS SHOULD
PERSIST THRU SUN AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR PSBL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
MONDAY AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. SCA WINDS PSBL AGAIN WED NGT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOIST AIR AND SHRA ACTIVITY IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING DRIER AIR BACK INTO
THE AREA FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.



&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
CEMPA/HAWLEY