Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 160207 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 907 PM EST SAT NOV 15 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF STATES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A MIXTURE OF PRECIPITATION. COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... UPDATE... ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DECOUPLE AS OF 02Z WITH SEVERAL LOCATIONS GOING CLEAR AND CALM. THUS...THE NOSEDIVE IN TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. HAVE LOWERED THE OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPERATURE FORECAST. HAVE MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS/TWEAKS FOR THE GRIDDED DATABASE WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE. PREV DISC... AT 18Z...A 1032 MILLIBAR ARCTIC HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER THE APPALACHIANS. OUTSIDE OF SOME SCATTERED LINGERING UPSLOPE CLOUDS IN THE MOUNTAINS...SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE DATE. A CLEAR START THIS EVENING ALONG WITH DIMINISHING WIND WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO COOL INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S BEFORE SOME CLOUDS ARRIVE OVERNIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY EXPECTED SUNDAY AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE DAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY ALTHOUGH A BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS MAY BRUSH THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WITH SOME VERY MINOR ACCUMS POSSIBLE. CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A FLURRY FOR THE REST OF THE REGION...BUT THE MAIN THEME WILL BE CLOUDS AND A CONTINUATION OF BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. A MOSTLY CLOUDY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS...DEPENDING ON BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES...THEN MOISTURE SPREADS NORTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA IN THE PREDAWN HOURS WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AND SLEET. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE A GOOD FIVE TO TEN DEGREES MILDER THEN TONIGHT GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING OVER-RUNNING PRECIP TO THE REGION ON MONDAY. BOUNDARY LAYER WILL INITIALLY BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW OR A MIX IN SOUTHERN ZONES BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO RAIN. FARTHER NORTH COLD AIR WILL HANG ON FOR MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE WARMER AIR ALOFT CREATES A MIX TOWARDS THE END OF THE DAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTH TO THE MID 40S SOUTH. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT INTO SOUTHERN CANADA OVERNIGHT...DRIVING A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO SHIFT OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE FRONT PUSHES EAST. EXPECT CLEARING DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY NIGHT AS STRONG WESTERLY GRADIENT KICKS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. CLOUDS AND FLURRIES WILL HANG ON THE NORTH. LOW TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 30S. BROAD UPPER LOW SWINGS IN FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY. UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL QUICKLY PRODUCE CLOUDS AND SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WHICH WILL GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TO THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. TROUGH WILL BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A SHALLOW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES TO AREAS DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY. A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS TO THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. AREA OF OVER-RUNNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SHIFT INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW BUT EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATIONS TO BE LIGHT AND SPOTTY. COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW ON THURSDAY KEEPING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT ENHANCING SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION. STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MINOR ACCUMULATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS. SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH ON FRIDAY IN THE MOUNTAINS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. VARIABLE CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND AS UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER CONTINUES. && .AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH 11Z MONDAY/...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. AREAS OF MVFR POSSIBLE AFT 08Z MONDAY SOUTH OF A KPWM-KLEB LINE IN LIGHT SNOW. LONG TERM...IFR/LIFR CEILINGS/VSBY MONDAY....IMPROVING TO VFR MONDAY NIGHT. VFR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...QUIET ON THE WATERS UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHEN SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD BRING MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS THAT LINGER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. LONG TERM...SCA`S MAY BE NEEDED MONDAY. GALES POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154. && $$

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