Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 201947 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 347 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AND WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TUESDAY NIGHT....BRINGING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN TO THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE DRIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... WEAK 500MB RIDGING BETWEEN CLOSED LOW EXITING THE MARITIMES TO THE NE...AND DEEPEN TROUGH OVER THE PH VLY WILL ALLOW FOR A MAINLY DRY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE STAGNANT SFC FLOW OVERNIGHT...AS THE MID LVLS BECOME MORE SRLY TOWARD DAYBREAK. LOOK FOR THE ONSHORE TO DEVELOP STRATOCU...ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN AND IN THE SE UPSLOPE AREAS. HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM TO OUR WEST..WHICH BEGINS TO CLOSE OFF BY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHC OF A VERY LIGHT SHOWER TOWARD DAYBREAK. TEMPS WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY THIS EVENING...AS CLEAR SKIES HOLD UNTIL A ROUND MIDNIGHT...BUT ONCE THE CLOUDS MOVE IN...TEMPS WILL REMAIN STEADY THRU THE LATTER PART OF THE NIGHT....WITH LOWS MID TO UPPER 30S N AND 40 TO 45 ELSEWHERE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... SFC FLOW REMAINS GENERALLY WEAK...AND WILL LKLY SEE A BIT OF A COLD AIR DAMMING SITUATION WITH NE WINDS INLAND...AND A MORE E FLOW NEAR THE COAST...WITH A COASTAL FRONT DEVELOPING. THIS COMBINED WITH MID LVL WAA...WILL PRODUCE A STEADY RAIN BY AFTERNOON ON THE COASTAL PLAIN AND INTO THE FOOTHILLS. IN THE MTNS AND POINTS N...WILL BE MORE SHOWERY INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE DOWNSLOPE HELPS DRY THINGS A BIT...BUT EVEN HERE THE WAA WILL PRODUCE STEADY RAIN BY LATE IN THE DAY. HIGHS WILL WORK THEIR WAY INTO THE UPPER 40S N TO MIS 50S ON THE COAST...AS THE THE MARINE AIR WORKS IN. TUESDAY WILL SEE A MAINLY STEADY LIGHT RAIN CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS WARM/MOIST AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY PICK OVERNIGHT AS THE SFC LOW BEGIN TO FORM S OF LONG ISLAND NY...BUT THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND BREEZIEST CONDITIONS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL WED. MINS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 40S TUE NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH A CLOSED LOW NEAR THE DELMARVA. THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MEANDER NORTHEAST ALONG THE COASTLINE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE EXITING INTO THE MARITIMES ON SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED JUST OFFSHORE AND DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE EXITING THE REGION BY SATURDAY. WE`LL SEE BANDS OF RAIN PINWHEELING IN OFF THE ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN LIKELY FALLING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. QPF AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH LOCALIZED 5 INCH TOTALS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS. ON SATURDAY...SOME LINGERING CLOUDS AND WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...DESPITE WEAK RIDGING BEHIND THE UPPER LOW. MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE DRIVES ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR MONDAY. && .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SHORT TERM...VFR SHOULD HOLD THRU MUCH OF TONIGHT...WITH GRADUALLY DETERIORATING CONDS BEGINNING TOWARD DAYBREAK AS ONSHORE FLOW MOVES STRATUS AND RAIN INLAND ON WED...BY WED AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE COASTAL AREAS DOWN TO IFR...WITH INLAND AREAS FOLLOWING BY TUE EVENING. LONG TERM... WED - FRI...IFR IN RAIN AND FOG. NE SFC WND GUSTING TO 25 KT. SAT...SCT MVFR PSBL IN SHOWERS. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...WINDS/SEAS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WILL SEE E FLOW BEGIN TO PICK UP TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT...WITH SCA SEAS/WINDS EXPECTED BY MIDNIGHT...AND BUILDING TO GALES BY WED MORNING. LONG TERM... WED - THU...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY. FRI...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY. && .HYDROLOGY... MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY MID TO LATE WEEK. MOST SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY HAVE SHARP RISES AS WELL. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL MAINE AND THE NORTHEAST FACING HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN...MOSTLY 2-3 INCHES QPF WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS APPROACHING 5 INCHES. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... COASTAL FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY AS THE SYSTEM MAKES A LOOP OVER LONG ISLAND NEW YORK ON THURSDAY. WAVE RUN UP TOOLS INDICATING SOME BEACH EROSION AND SPLASH OVER ACROSS MUCH OF OUR COASTLINE. NEAR SHORE WAVES COULD TOP OUT IN THE 10 TO 15 FOOT RANGE. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR ANZ150>154-170. && $$ SCHWIBS/CEMPA

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