Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME
FXUS61 KGYX 192342
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
742 PM EDT THU MAY 19 2016
An upper trough of low pressure will move across the region
tonight, with showers and thunderstorms coming to an end. The
system exits by early Friday followed by high pressure to build
across the area with sunny skies and warmer temperatures through
Saturday. A cold front will drop south out of Canada and into
northern New England Saturday night while low pressure moves
northeastward off the New England coastline on Sunday. This system
could bring some rain to the area depending on how close it tracks
Sunday and early next week.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
730 pm...500 mb closed low passing over CWA this evening with
best dynamic forcing shifting east of the early. this, combined
with loss of daytime heating will allow any SHRA to gradually
diminish thru about 02-03Z, and any isolated TSRA should be
winding down shortly after 00Z. skies will become mostly clear by
or shortly after midnight in all but far eastern zones.
Previously...An upper low moving across the region is producing a
cold pool of air aloft and will continue to destabilize the
atmosphere into the evening with showers and even a few tstorms.
With very low freezing levels some small hail is possible with
some of the convection. after midnight the system exits to the
east and showers end. overnight low temps should be in the 40s.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
high pressure builds across the region with a return to sunny
skies and much warmer temperatures. High temperatures will reach
well into the 70s. winds will remain light.
friday night will remain clear with calm winds as we remain under
the dome of high pressure. Used a blend of the models for
overnight lows. Considering clear skies and the calm winds
temperatures should bottom mostly in the mid 40s to lower 50s with
some cooler readings in the mountains.
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Models remain in fair agreement regarding the extended forecast.
The first order of business is an ocean low pressure system that
will develop off the Mid Atlantic coast Sat. The 19.12z GFS and
ECMWF solutions have continued the trend of keeping rnfl mainly
out to sea. However, the NW side of the system will feature some
showery activity with colder pool aloft and daytime heating. So
PoP is not completely out of the forecast.
Beyond the weekend low pressure will continue E and away from the
area, but upper trof is forecast to close off and cut off from the
background flow. The resulting upper low now meanders over New
England thru early next week. Much like what we`re seeing today,
temps should be comfortable but afternoon showers will be a threat
each day with gradual improvement late in the week. Will stick
with the multi-model consensus for PoP, but not go too crazy with
likely as nailing down spatial and temporal differences will be
difficult at best this far out.
.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Short Term...VFR conditions except MVFR conditions in any showers
or isolated thunderstorms through the evening. VFR conditions
expected later tonight through Friday night.
Long Term...With upper low pressure moving overhead towards early
next week, periods of MVFR will be possible in afternoon showers
Short Term...light winds and seas will continue through friday
Long Term...Main concern will be ocean low pressure system this
weekend tracking near the Gulf of ME. A closer approach will mean
SCA winds and seas are possible on the outer waters. At the very
least, some 5 ft seas appear possible due to waves generated by
Numerous light showers will continue into the evening across the
mountains and foothills with widely scattered showers further
south and east. These wetting showers will end by later tonight.
On friday and saturday high pressure builds across the area with
dry weather and much warmer temperatures with light winds. A
coastal low may affect the area with wet weather later in the
weekend and early next week.