Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KGYX 250315 AAC
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1015 PM EST WED DEC 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES TODAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING WINDY
CONDITIONS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN LATE TODAY INTO
CHRISTMAS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON
FRIDAY AND BRING PLEASANT WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.
A WEAK LOW WILL PASS TO THE NORTH ON SUNDAY AND DRAG A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION...BUT ONLY A FEW SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
.UPDATE...
POPS AND QPF AMOUNTS WERE ADJUSTED TO DEPICT BREAK IN RAIN SHIELD
NOW MOVING INTO WESTERN MAINE. NH IS MOSTLY RAIN FREE AT THE
MOMENT AND HAVE LOWERED POPS TO REFLECT THIS. NEXT BATCH OF
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE IN 4-6 HOURS AND
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. IN THE MEANTIME TEMPERATURES WILL STALL OR
SLOWLY INCREASE ENSURING P TYPE IS RAIN. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO RAIN
SHIELDS DENSE FOG MAY DEVELOP AND BECOME A NUISANCE BEFORE
DAYBREAK... THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG COLD FRONT OR OCCLUSION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM
WEST TO EAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY. PRIOR TO THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...A WARM FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO MAKE ITS WAY
NORTHWARD FROM SOUTHERN NH. NOT REALLY SURE HOW FAR NORTH IT MAKES
IT...BUT IT MAY JUST REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN NH BEFORE
AN OCCLUSION MOVES THROUGH. SOUTH OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES IN
THE 50S TO NEAR 60 WILL BE POSSIBLE. TO THE NORTH OF THE
FRONT...30S AND 40S WILL PREVAIL UNTIL A WARM OCCLUSION MOVES
THROUGH AND PERHAPS PUSHES TEMPS UP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S FOR
A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME BEFORE FALLING BACK DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

THE CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS WILL EXIST PRIOR TO THE MORNING
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEREAFTER...CLEARING SKIES WILL TAKE PLACE AND
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY. GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDDAY. A FEW 50 MPH GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...AND AN ADVISORY MAY NEED TO
BE ISSUED. JUST NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH AT THIS TIME.

CONTINUED CLEARING AND BREEZY THU NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON FRIDAY AND A LARGE RIDGE IS SET UP
OVER THE REGION. WEATHER WILL BE QUITE NICE AS TEMPS SHOULD PEAK
OUT ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH ON SUNDAY AND DRAG A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE QUITE MOISTURE
STARVED AND ONLY EXPECTING A FEW SCATTERED AND LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS TO POP UP FROM IT.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
CENTERED OVER THE PLAIN STATES. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS WERE
ADVERTISING A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS CAPE COD AND INTO
THE GULF OF MAINE...BUT THE 12Z RUNS HAVE COMPLETELY LOST THIS
FEATURE NOW. THE PATTERN IS CERTAINLY MORE FAVORABLE FOR COASTAL
LOW DEVELOPMENT AND THE MODELS MAY PICK THIS FEATURE UP AGAIN AS
WE ARE STILL 6 TO 7 DAYS OUT. IT CAN BE NOTED THAT A FEW OF THE
EURO/GGEM ENSEMBLES ARE STILL SHOWING A STORM...SO FOR NOW I JUST
WENT WITH SLIGHT POP OVER THE ENTIRE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALMOST ALL TAF SITES
EXCEPT FOR KHIE WHERE DOWNSLOPING SHOULD KEEP CEILINGS AT MVFR OR
BETTER. A WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE
REGION TONIGHT...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN IN SOME AREAS. WINDS WILL
BE QUITE STRONG ALOFT...SO LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR/TURBULENCE WILL BE
LIKELY THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING. COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH TOMORROW AND PUSH OUT THE MOISTURE...BRINGING ALL
SITES BACK TO VFR BY LATE MORNING TO EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OUT OF THE WEST BEHIND THIS FRONT.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRI AND SAT...WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH COLD FRONT SUN. AFTER THE FRONT PASSES
THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GALES REMAIN LIKELY LATE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...WE PUSHED THEM BACK TIL LATER TONIGHT AS THEY
SHOULD BE SLOWER TO MATERIALIZE DUE TO A STRONG LOW LEVEL
INVERSION. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY GUSTING AROUND 40 KT
DURING THE DAY ON THU.

LONG TERM...WINDS WILL BE STARTING TO EASE BY FRIDAY MORNING BUT
SCA WINDS AND SEAS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD BY THE WEEKEND AND WINDS LOOK TO
REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA INTO NEXT WEEK WITH THE ONLY CHANCE FOR
MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS BEING SUNDAY WITH THE PASSING OF A COLD
FRONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING MAY
PRESENT SOME MINOR FLOODING ISSUES OF SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS AS
WELL AS URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. WILL KEEP THE FLOOD WATCH
UP AS IS DUE TO A MOISTURE-LADEN AIRMASS IN PLACE...BUT THE THREAT
IS DIMINISHING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OR SPLASH-OVER MAY OCCUR AROUND THE TIME
OF HIGH TIDE MIDDAY ON THURSDAY. TONIGHT/S MIDNIGHT HIGH TIDE IS
THE LOWER OF THE CYCLE AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE ISSUES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD BE TIED OR SET AT PORTLAND AND
CONCORD CHRISTMAS DAY. THE HIGHEST CHRISTMAS DAY TEMPERATURES ON
RECORD ARE 56 FOR CONCORD IN 1889...AND 53 AT PORTLAND IN 1994.

ALSO...RECORD HIGHS FOR MOUNT WASHINGTON ARE 38 FOR THE 24TH AND
42 FOR CHRISTMAS DAY. BOTH WILL LIKELY BE TIED OR BROKEN.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-
     018>022.
NH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR NHZ001>013-015.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 11 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ153.
     GALE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 11 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ150>152-
     154.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HANES


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.