Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 030041 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 741 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND SHIFTS OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL SWING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA TUESDAY NIGHT TRYING TO PUSH A WARM FRONT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. AS THE LOW SHIFTS TO OUR NORTH...IT WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY AND WILL CREST OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/... 745PM UPDATE... HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO CONTINUE SNOW SHOWERS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. THESE CONVECTIVELY GENERATED SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DIE OFF AS THE EVENING GOES ON AND LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY IS LOST. SOME OF THESE HAVE MANAGED TO SNEAK PAST THE MOUNTAINS IN SPITE OF GENERAL DOWNSLOPING... SO HAVE INCLUDED LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST. MENTIONED HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS SINCE BRIEF HEAVY SNOW HAS BEEN OBSERVED. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST. 430PM UPDATE... HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE PATCHY BLOWING SNOW AS BLOWING SNOW HAS BEEN NOTED WHERE LARGE FIELDS OF SNOW GIVE THE WIND ENOUGH FETCH TO PICK UP SNOW. ORIGINAL DISCUSSION... WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE EVENING AS A COLD CANADIAN HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THE UPSLOPING SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL COME TO AN END BY EARLY EVENING. BY LATER TONIGHT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DIMINISH AND BY MORNING MORNING WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT ALLOWING SOME DECOUPLING AND RADIATIONAL COOLING IN SOME SPOTS AS SKIES WILL BE CLEAR. USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS TO TAKE A STAB AT THE OVERNIGHT MINS BUT DEPENDING ON WHEN THE WINDS QUIT COULD MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE ON LOWS. SOME SPOTS MAY END UP COLDER THAN FORECAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... ON TUESDAY THE HIGH MOVES TO OUR SOUTH IN THE MORNING AND THEN SHIFT OFF SHORE BY LATE IN THE DAY. SKIES WILL START OUT SUNNY BUT BY LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON WARM ADVECTION ALOFT WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THROUGH THE RIDGE AXIS. BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD SOUTHWEST NH AND THEN RAPIDLY NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY EVENING. WENT WITH VERY HIGH POPS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT SINCE ITS A WIDESPREAD WARM AIR ADVECTION OVERRUNNING EVENT AND QPF SHOULD BE IN THE .2-.4 RANGE GIVING GENERALLY A 3-6 INCH RANGE OF SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT. PTYPE...GENERALLY ALL SNOW EXCEPT IT MAY BRIEFLY MIX WITH SOME SLEET OR RAIN BEFORE ENDING OVER SOUTHERN NH AND COASTAL ME...WITH PERHAPS SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. PREFER THE COLDER GFS. AS FAR AS TIMING...THE SNOW SHOULD BE ENDING AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER NEW HAMPSHIRE AND TOWARD MORNING IN SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MAINE. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... ANY PRECIPITATION ENDS EARLY WED MORNING. A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW MAY FALL ACROSS SOUTHERNMOST ZONES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS NORTHERN FRINGE OF SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM BRUSHES US. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION SYSTEMS ARE CURRENTLY POISED TO AFFECT OUR REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED. && .AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY LOWERING TO IFR IN SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT. LONG TERM...IFR POSSIBLE IN LINGERING WINTRY PRECIP EARLY WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY VFR FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AND MUCH OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MVFR IN LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE MHT/PSM/CON LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS WE GET BRUSHED WITH SNOW FROM A SYSTEM MOVING WELL TO OUR SOUTH. VFR LATER THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...HAVE CONTINUED THE GALES TONIGHT. HIGH PRES SETTLES OVER THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS SO WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TOWARD MORNING AND INTO TUESDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND REACH SCA CRITERIA. LONG TERM...SCA WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY MID TO LATE WEEK. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ151-153. GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154. && $$ NEAR TERM UPDATE... KIMBLE

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