Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 190757 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 357 AM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will persist across northern New England as Jose meanders well off the New England coast today through the end of the week. High pressure will hold over the region over the weekend and into early next week, with temperatures remaining above normal. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... Persistent ocean stratus has expanded into the much of the forecast area overnight and will persist across much of the region through the day as Jose approaches from the south increasing the moist onshore flow. Widespread dense fog has failed to materialize and is mainly confined to coastal areas of Maine and new Hampshire to varying degrees so will be dropping dense fog advisories. First bands of showers associated with Jose beginning to show up offshore south of New England and will be working northward through the morning hours. HRRR brings these showers into far southern New Hampshire and southwest Maine by early to mid afternoon but these will be light and spotty through early evening. Once again high temperatures will generally be confined to the mid to upper 60s across most of the forecast area. Far northwest zones including the Connecticut Valley will see highs in the 70s. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... Rain will become more widespread across coastal and southern interior zones overnight as Jose makes its closest approach to southern New England. Still appears that the heaviest QPF will remain offshore but up to an inch of accumulation can be expected through Wednesday in coastal areas. Low temperatures overnight will range from the mid 50s north to the lower 60s south. Jose will make its turn to the east on Wednesday and showers across southern zones will gradually shift offshore as the storm pulls away to the east. Drier air will be tucking in from the north as high pressure builds south across the region so expect brightening skies from north to south during the day although southern zones will likely see clouds for much of the day. High will range through the 70s with warmest readings found in sunny northern zones. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Hemispheric 500 mb pattern will be dominated by strong ridging over the atlantic and extending into the ern third of the CONUS through the period, with only Jose and Maria moving around the western atlantic, and for the most part trapped in the ridge, until late in the period when trough digs equatorward across the central CONUS and should squeeze the tropical systems NE into the north Atlantic. Through the period, very warm air will continue to flow in over the top of the ridge and into New England, which will keep temps above normal through the long range. As for Jose, coastal areas will still seem some breezy conditions Wed night into Thu. In fact may see strongest winds work onshore along coastal areas Wed night as Jose goes through a phase of ET and wind field expands. Still looking at wind gusts of 25-30 mph, so nothing too significant, and wind should start to diminish Thu afternoon. The winds will mainly be N-NE Wed night into Thu, so this should bring some direr air in and pops will diminish quickly Wed evening. Lows Wed night will be mild for mid Sept, ranging from the mid 50s N to low to mid 60s in the south. The mostly N winds on Thu should produce a little bit of downslope and with clearing skies should see highs in the 70s, and warmest in the S and the W zones. Jose hangs out just S of the Gulf of ME Fri thru Sun, as it sits between two ridges. It`s hard to say what condition it will be in at this point, but it is unlikely to have any direct effects on the CWA after Thu as strong pushes east across the GReat Lakes and Ohio valley and into New England. This will bring increasingly warmer air into the region with 850 mb temps approaching 20C by Sun into Mon. Should see a fair amount of Sun right through the period, and temps generally in the upper 70s to mid 80s, although cooler at the beaches as lack of strong flow allows sea breezes to develop. Overnight lows Thu and Fri night will be in the 50s, but will be milder Sat thru Mon nights. May see some changes toward the middle of next week as 500 mb trough approaches from the west, but this will depend on what becomes of both Jose and Maria, and how well the ridge can hold on. && .AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Short Term...IFR/LIFR ceilings with areas of ifr/lifr vsby in coastal areas early this morning. IFR/LIFR ceilings overnight and Wednesday...improving to VFR in northern zones on Wednesday. Long Term...Any lingering flight restrictions along the coast Wed evening will improve to VFR overnight. N wind gusts to 25 kts are possible Wed night into Thu, but they should die off Thu evening with VFR prevailing through Saturday. && .MARINE... Short Term...Continuing SCA`s for outer waters and bays through Wednesday. Expect Long period swell to increase today and will persist through the end of the week. Have extended high surf advisories through Wednesday. Long Term...As Jose makes its closet pass top our S late Wed could see borderline gales, especially S of Casco bay Wed night into Thu morning. Otherwise the swell linger into Thu, but will begin to gradually subside toward the end of the of the week, but will likely remain abv 5 ft outside the bays through Saturday. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Storm surge associated with Jose still only expected to be around a half foot which should not be a problem but increasing swell may combined to produce some splash-over and beach erosion around the time of high tide. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...High Surf Advisory through Wednesday evening for MEZ023>028. NH...High Surf Advisory through Wednesday evening for NHZ014. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ150>154. && $$ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.