Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 251407 AAB AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 1007 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY CROSSES THE AREA TODAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. A COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH UPSLOPE SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE AREA MIDWEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR THIS UPDATE. ADJUSTED SKY COVER AS FOG IS STILL HANGING ON IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY AND A COUPLE MORE SPOTS. OTHERWISE SKIES ARE CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING QUICKLY IN THE DRIER AIRMASS.
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&& PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...RIDGE OF HIGH PRES IS QUICKLY APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE W THIS MORNING. CLOUDS AND ERODING FROM THE W TO E WITH TIME. THESE BREAKS HAVE ALLOWED FOR SOME QUICKLY COOLING IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY...WITH PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING THERE. SW FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FNT WILL MEAN A RATHER MILD DAY IN STORE COMPARED TO THE PAST SEVERAL. HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE LOW 60S FOR MUCH OF THE COASTAL PLAIN. LATE IN THE AFTERNOON COLD FNT WILL APPROACH THE CT RIVER VALLEY...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND SCT SHOWERS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... FNT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH SCT SHOWERS OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS...AND PCPN LIKELY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ANY MIXED PCPN IS UNLIKELY OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHEST PEAKS. CLOUDS AND INCREASING WINDS WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPS MILD. SUN WILL FEATURE COOL...MOIST...NWLY FLOW. THIS WILL LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT CLOUDINESS ON THE NW SLOPES OF THE HIGH TERRAIN IN UPSLOPE FLOW. SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE LIKELY FOR THESE ZONES...WITH SOME MIXING IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. DAY TIME HEATING WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST BKN CLOUDS DOWNWIND OF THE MTNS EARLY...AND GRADUALLY DOWNSLOPE CLEARING LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE 50S. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH UPSLOPE SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DOWNSLOPE CLEARING TOWARD THE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER NEW ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT... ALLOWING THE WINDS TO SUBSIDE AND LIKELY RESULT IN GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. HOWEVER... DEWPOINT VALUES WILL STILL BE IN THE MID/UPPER 30S SO IT WILL NOT GET ALL THAT COLD. SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST ON TUESDAY AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEAST. WARMER AIR WILL BE MOVING IN ALOFT THOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO BE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY WITH COOLER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND IT. HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE A BIT TRICKY AS IT DEPENDS ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE... ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE COAST. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT TEMPERATURES COULD WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. BUT IF IT ARRIVES A BIT EARLIER THEN SUCH WARMTH WILL NOT BE REALIZED AT THE SURFACE. COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THURSDAY. MODELS DIVERGE ON HOW TO HANDLE THE NEXT TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CONTINENT THIS WEEK... ARRIVING IN NEW ENGLAND AT THE END OF THE WEEK. FOR NOW THE FORECAST WILL SHOW A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA... THOUGH TIMING AND TEMPERATURE FORECASTS ARE STILL VERY UNCERTAIN. && .AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SHORT TERM...HIGH PRES IS MOVING INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING...ALLOWING FOR PARTIAL CLEARING FROM THE W. THIS IS GOING TO PROMOTE SOME VALLEY FOG...ESPECIALLY IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY...THRU DAWN. KLEB AND KHIE WILL SEE TEMPO LIFR CONDITIONS. VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATE TODAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FNT. LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT SOME MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AS FNT CROSSES THE AREA FROM W TO E. EXTENDED PERIOD OF MVFR WILL LINGER ON THE NW SLOPES OF THE MTNS INTO SUN AFTERNOON. LONG TERM...MVFR CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE NORTH OF THE MOUNTAINS INTO MONDAY WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA REMAINS VFR. A COLD FRONT ARRIVING ON WEDNESDAY MAY BRING SOME BRIEF SHOWERS AND COULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS AREAWIDE. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS HIGH PRES QUICKLY MOVES OVER THE WATERS. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS COLD FNT CROSSES THE WATERS TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING GUSTY WNW WINDS IN ITS WAKE...AND PROBABLE SCA CONDITIONS. LONG TERM...WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY REQUIRE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY CRESTS OVER THE REGION WITH LIGHTER WINDS. ANOTHER FRONT ARRIVES FOR WEDNESDAY BUT WINDS WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY STAY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. && .CLIMATE... PORTLAND HAS STILL NOT HAD ITS FIRST FREEZE OF THE FALL. AVERAGE FIRST FREEZE IS OCTOBER 9. THE RECORD LATEST FIRST FALL FREEZE AT THE JETPORT IN PORTLAND IS OCTOBER 25 SET JUST LAST YEAR. THIS RECORD WILL BE BROKEN AGAIN THIS YEAR. CURRENT FORECAST DOES NOT HAVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN PORTLAND THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH SO THIS RECORD WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED BY SEVERAL DAYS. THE GROWING SEASON (THE PERIOD BETWEEN LAST SPRING FREEZE AND FIRST FALL FREEZE) FOR 2014 STANDS AT 188 DAYS SO FAR. THIS ALSO IS A RECORD AS THE PREVIOUS LONGEST GROWING SEASON WAS 1990 (184 DAYS). THE LAST TIME FREEZING TEMPERATURES WERE RECORDED IN PORTLAND WAS APRIL 21. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...HANES

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