Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KGYX 311517 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 1017 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND...WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM TRACKING SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY...POTENTIALLY BRINGING SNOW TO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW MIDWEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS BY TO OUR SOUTH ON THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 1010 UPDATE...LAST WSW HAS EXPIRED...AS ONE LAST SURGE OF SN MOVES SW ACROSS PENOBSCOT BAY, SOME LIGHT -SN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY AFT ALONG OUR ERN CWA BORDER....BUT THE TREND IS FOR LITTLE...IF ANY...ADDITIONAL ACCUMS...EXCEPT FOR AROUND PENOBSCOT BAY...WHERE AN ADDL INCH MAY BE POSSIBLE. WINDS CONTINUE THRU TODAY...WITH SOME BLOWING SNOW POSSIBLE...CERTAINLY ENOUGH TO RE- COVER ROADS IN SOME SPOTS AND PERHAPS REDUCE VIS BRIEFLY AT TIMES. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO SLACKEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE. 540 AM UPDATE: HAVE DROPPED THE WINTER STORM WARNING THAT WAS SET TO EXPIRE AT 6AM FOR SOUTHERN AREAS. THE LAST BAND OF WRAPAROUND SNOW HAS EXITED THIS AREA AND ONLY SOME LIGHT LINGERING LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED. ELSEWHERE NO OTHER CHANGES EXCEPT FOR MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: EARLY THIS MORNING THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA WHILE THE MID/UPPER LOW WAS CENTERED FURTHER W JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE MID LEVEL LOW IS CAUSING WRAPAROUND SNOWS TO CONTINUE ACROSS ALL OF MAINE WITH SOME BANDS OF MODERATE SNOW STILL OCCURRING. FOR THIS REASON WILL CONTINUE THE WINTER STORM WARNINGS THAT ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE. FURTHER WEST IN NEW HAMPSHIRE VERY LITTLE IN ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW OCCURRING SO HAVE DROPPED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES...EVEN THOUGH THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALLOW SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW DURING THE DAY IN OPEN AREAS BUT WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO CONTINUE ADVISORIES. FOR THIS REASON HAVE DROPPED ALL WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ACROSS PARTS OF NH AND EXTREME SOUTHERN MAINE. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT COMBINED WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION INTO THE REGION TODAY WILL CAUSE WINDS TO BE GUSTY BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW THE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT IN THE MOUNTAINS OF MAINE AND NORTHERN NH TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. OVER SOUTHWEST NH THE WIND CHILL ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH CLEAR SKIES BUT VERY COLD TEMPERATURES. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT TONIGHT AND SUNDAY IN THE MOUNTAINS OF MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE DUE TO THE WINDS REMAINING STRONG ENOUGH AND COMBINED WITH THE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES. USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR TEMPERATURES. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... BLOCKING OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL KEEP THE DOOR OPEN FOR REINFORCING BOUTS OF FRIGID AIR TO CONTINUE TO SPILL INTO NEW ENGLAND FROM SIBERIA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND INTO THE PACIFIC OCEAN BY MONDAY ALLOWING WEAK TROUGHING TO DOMINATE MOST OF THE CONUS IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST. BOTH JET STREAMS REMAIN ACTIVE WITH THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY MORNING. THE SURFACE CYCLONE DEEPENS AS IT MOVES OFF THE JERSEY COAST. GEFS ENSEMBLE MSLP MEAN NOW SHOWS THE SURFACE LOW CROSSING JUST OVER THE BENCHMARK AS IT DEEPENS TO NEAR 990 MB AND STAYING SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE AND NOVA SCOTIA AS IT TRAVELS ENE. THIS SCENARIO WOULD STILL BRING AROUND A HALF INCH OF QPF TO THE FOOTHILLS AND AROUND 0.75" TO THE COAST. IN ADDITION THE SNOW WOULD BE FLUFFY WITH HIGH LIQUID TO WATER RATIOS IN SUCH A DRY AND COLD ENVIRONMENT. THIS WOULD TRANSLATE TO ANOTHER 6-12" SNOWFALL FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND COASTAL NH AND MAINE. WE WILL HOLD OFF ISSUING WATCHES FOR THIS EVENT UNTIL THE CURRENT SNOW EVENT IS OVER TO AVOID CONFUSION. THIS SNOW WOULD BEGIN VERY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY WITH WARM ADVECTION BRINGING SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION. A COLD FRONT FOLLOWS FOR LATER IN THE DAY. NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVES ATTEMPT TO MERGE WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT DON`T APPEAR TO DO SO. THIS DOESN`T LOOK LIKE A BIG SNOW MAKER LIKE THE OTHER SYSTEMS WE HAVE SEEN... MORE JUST NUISANCE SHOWERS. AFTER THIS MORE COLD AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. && .AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SHORT TERM... MVFR TO IFR AT TIMES IN SNOW AND LOW CIGS OVER THE MAINE PORTION...PERSISTING INTO THIS MORNING. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NEW HAMPSHIRE WITH ONLY SOME MVFR CONDITIONS IN SOME AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW. BY MID MORNING A GRADUAL IMPROVING TREND WILL OCCUR FROM WEST TO EAST WITH ALL AREAS BECOMING VFR BY LATER THIS MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY WILL GUST UP TO 35 KT. LONG TERM...HIGH CHANCE OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AT COASTAL TERMINALS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING IN LIGHT SNOW. VFR FOR WEDNESDAY. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...GALES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT BEHIND THE DEEPENING OCEAN LOW. FREEZING SPRAY WILL BECOME AN ISSUE SATURDAY...LASTING INTO SUNDAY. FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THIS PERIOD. LONG TERM...SCA WILL LKLY BE NEEDED MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GALES ON THE OUTER WATERS. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST SUNDAY FOR MEZ007>009. NH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST SUNDAY FOR NHZ001>004. MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ150>154. GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ150>154. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...CEMPA SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION... MARINE...

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.