Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 201519 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 1119 AM EDT Fri Oct 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Slightly cooler weather is expected today in the wake of a cold front but temperatures are still expected to be above normal. Another warming trend with faIr weather is expected Saturday through Monday. A cold front will approach on Tuesday bringing the likelihood of some much needed rainfall during the midweek period. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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1100 AM update... Quick update to tweak temp/td/rh grids. Temperatures once again are well on thier way above normal. Expect mostly sunny skies through the afternoon along with a moderate northwest flow. Have also dropped SCA headlines which have expired. No other changes planned for current forecast. 645AM UPDATE... Have updated the forecast to tie hourly temperature and dewpoint trends to latest observations. ORIGINAL DISCUSSION... Cold front is moving through the area at this hour with drier and cooler air moving in behind it for today. With decent mixing expect dewpoints to fall into the low 30s during the afternoon while temperatures warm up into the upper 60s. This will bring some low relative humidity values especially over southern areas. Combined with recent dry weather and a light breeze, this will lead to conditions favorable for wildfires.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... High pressure slides east and crests over New England tonight. This should allow for some decent radiational cooling conditions especially in the southwestern part of the forecast area and the New Hampshire valleys. Temperatures could drop down toward the freezing mark. But on Saturday warmer air will be spilling in from the west and temperatures warm up into the upper 60s and low 70s again. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... A weak warm frontal boundary will be in the vicinity of the CWA Saturday night and Sunday. However, the feature will be associated with very little fanfare...just above normal temperatures. Highs should be well into the 70s on Sunday, especially across southern zones. Deep layer ridging centered just to our east will aid in providing another well above normal day Monday in the temperature department. Highs should be into the 70s once again. An amplifying trough will move into the Ohio Valley on Tuesday which will aid in turning surface winds more south or southeasterly across the region. This should allow for richer low level moisture to move into the region which may allow for low clouds and possibly some drizzle or light showers. By the end of day, stronger forcing for ascent should arrive across western zones allowing for a steadier rain or at least more widespread showers to develop toward evening. Given the expected deep layer meridional flow in place, it will take awhile for the rain to move out of the region - in fact a second wave may move into the area Thursday night and Friday. Overall, the area needs rainfall. Some rivers are at record lows for this time of year and the fire weather threat continues to increase. However, GFS and ECMWF ensembles are in pretty good agreement with most members showing a 1-3" rainfall across the region midweek into the weekend. && .AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Short Term...VFR conditions expected today and tonight. Winds shift to the west northwest and may gust up to 20 KT. But these gusts will diminish this evening. Long Term...Widespread VFR conditions will continue under high pressure. High will be more centered overhead over the weekend...so valley fog and LIFR conditions will be possible at HIE and LEB. Increasing low level moisture will occur Monday night and Tuesday, and this may introduce lower conditions in low stratus and possibly fog. && .MARINE... Short Term...Winds shift to the west northwest this morning behind a cold front. Wind speeds continue to decrease but wave heights continue to stay up for a few more hours this morning. Long Term...SCA conditions are likely late Monday night through Tuesday night as a cold front approaches from the west and southerly winds increase out ahead of it. && .FIRE WEATHER... Relative humidities will drop into the mid 20s to mid 30s in southeast New Hampshire and southwest Maine this afternoon along with winds of 10 to 15 mph. This would come in just under meteorological RFW conditions, and will elevate the threat of wildfires. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...None.
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&& $$

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