Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 061213 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 813 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BRINGING GENERALLY COOL AND WET CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF BREAK TODAY AS SOME DRIER AIR INFILTRATES THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. ANOTHER LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING MORE COOL UNSETTLED WEATHER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE ON MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
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811 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO INGEST CURRENT MESONET INTO NEAR TERM GRIDS. PREV DISC... 6AM UPDATE.... JUST A FEW TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES. RAIN HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA BUT CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE THIS MORNING. AT 07Z RAIN HAD ENDED ACROSS NEW HAMPSHIRE AND RAIN WILL COME TO AN END ACROSS MAINE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MORNING. WINDS CURRENTLY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST GUSTING TO 20KTS ALONG THE COAST WILL ALSO DECREASE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING AS THE LOW MOVES OUT. FOR TODAY EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS WE SEE A BRIEF BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS. ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER THERE MAY BE SOME SUNNY PERIODS. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE REGION.
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&& .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... BY EVENING THE NEXT LOW APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN ALLOW FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO FORM OVER SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE BY EARLY EVENING. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THIS SYSTEM IS VERY WEAK AND IT ESSENTIALLY FALLS APART AS IT DRIFTS NORTHWARDS, LEAVING NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH SHOWERS INTO SATURDAY. TOTAL QPF WILL BE MINIMAL / LESS THAN 0.1 INCH /. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... RIGHT CLOSED LOW PORTION OF THE OMEGA BLOCK CURRENTLY OVER THE CONUS WILL BREAK DOWN SUNDAY AS ANOTHER STRONG CYCLONE CENTER MOVES INTO EASTERN CANADA. EVENTUALLY THIS CLOSED LOW CENTER WILL BECOME PART OF THE OMEGA BLOCK AS IT REINTENSIFIES. BY THIS POINT HOWEVER THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL DOMINATE THE SOUTHERN CONUS LEAVING THE REMAINS OF THE QUASI-OMEGA BLOCK CUTOFF OVER CANADA AND THE NORTHERN STATES. WE`LL SEE INCREASING SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE NEXT TROUGH DEEPENS OVER EASTERN CANADA AND DRIVES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. SENSIBLE WEATHER INCLUDES A RAIN COOLED DAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES PEAKING IN THE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON WEST TO EAST. THE RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES AND WILL MIX DOWN GUSTY WINDS FROM AN ACCOMPANYING 45 KT LLJ. AS THE RAIN ENDS WINDS WILL STAY UP HELPING TO DRAW COOLER AND DRIER AIR DOWN FROM CANADA. ON MONDAY MUCH OF THE COOLER AIR WILL REMAIN BOTTLED UP ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHILE THE COASTAL PLAIN WILL WARM UNDER SUNNY SKIES. CONTINUED STRONG WESTERLIES ARE EXPECTED WITH GUSTS IN THE 25-35 MPH RANGE LIKELY. THANKFULLY THE RECENT AND FORECASTED RAINFALL WILL KEEP THE WILD FIRE THREAT LOW. MONDAY NIGHT A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR ARRIVES BEHIND A SURFACE TROUGH. PARTY CLOUDY SKIES AND WEST WINDS WILL WARM TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO UPPER 60S OVER SOUTHERN NH ON TUESDAY. A WEAK SEA BREEZE WILL KEEP COASTAL LOCATIONS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. ON WEDNESDAY A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SW AHEAD OF A BACKDOOR FRONT WHICH DROPS OUT OF CANADA LATER IN THE DAY. THIS WILL BRING SHOWERS BACK INTO THE FORECAST FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ONCE AGAIN FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SHORT TERM...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING. FRIDAY WILL SEE A BRIEF BREAK AND IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FOR ALL SITES. MORE CLOUDS MOVE IN WITH A DECREASE TO MVFR FOR CON MHT AND PSM BY FRIDAY NIGHT...AND FOR ALL AREAS BY SATURDAY MORNING. SATURDAY WILL HAVE ON AND OFF RAIN SHOWERS WITH BRIEF IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE. LONG TERM...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS...PROBABLY VARYING BETWEEN MVFR- IFR MOSTLY EXPECTED SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. HEAVIER RAIN ARRIVES ON SUN BRINGING SEVERAL HOURS OF MORE RESTRICTIONS. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR MON AND TUE. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...WHILE WINDS WILL DIMINISH SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. SEAS WILL DECREASE BY SATURDAY MORNING,AT WHICH POINT WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE. BETWEEN THE SEAS AND THE WIND, EXPECT SCA TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. LONG TERM...PERSISTENT LIGHT E FLOW WILL PUSH SEAS UP TO AROUND 5 OR 6 FT FOR MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK...MAINLY IN SWELL. A COLD FRONT PUSHES THRU ON SUNDAY AND W-NW WINDS COULD APPROACH SCA LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON ON THE OUTER WATERS. && .FIRE WEATHER... RH VALUES WILL BE HIGH TO MODERATE TO HIGH THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH MORE RAIN EXPECTED EACH DAY. A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT...PERHAPS A QUARTER INCH...OF RAIN WILL FALL ON SUNDAY. COOL AND MOIST WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK KEEPING FIRE DANGER IN CHECK. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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THE HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES CONTINUE TO CREATE A THREAT FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. HIGH TIDE AT PORTLAND IS 11.9FT AT 11:35PM FRIDAY. WINDS... WHILE LIGHT... WILL ONCE AGAIN TURN ONSHORE IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH SEAS WHICH REMAIN IN THE 5 FOOT RANGE FROM THE PRIOR STORM WILL SERVE TO DRIVE WATER ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AND PRODUCE A THREAT FOR MINOR EROSION AND SPLASH-OVER. SINCE THE SEAS AND WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN FACTOR HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH A WATCH AND LET THE DAY SHIFT ASSESS FOR ADVISORY OR WARNING ISSUANCE.
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&& .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MEZ023-024. NH...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NHZ014. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ152-154. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150. && $$ ES

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