Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 191426 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 926 AM EST Sun Feb 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front will approach from the north today and will drop south through the region tonight. High pressure will build in from the northwest Monday and will crest over the area Monday night. High pressure will shift offshore on Tuesday as a weak warm front approaches from the west. The warm front will push east through the region Tuesday night. Weak low pressure will move east through the northern Great lakes on Wednesday and will continue east through southern Quebec Wednesday night. A trailing cold front will gradually drop south through the region on Thursday...stalling over southern New England. The front will lift northward as a warm front on Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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9am update... Temperatures are soaring under mostly clear skies. The surface trough and wind shift is all the way back in the St. Lawrence valley right now which will give most of our area a chance to bake under clear skies and west winds for a few more hours. Increased the high temperatures especially in downsloping regions such as IZG where it`s already in the mid 50s and in southern New Hampshire. Also increased the winds slightly with more of a west flow. After a week of winter looks like a taste of spring! prev disc... Quick update to adjust temps/td`s which are all over the place due to unseasonably warm air aloft and occasional westerlys mixing down from time to time. Perfect example is IZG at 49 degrees and LEW 23. Expect temps to take quite a jump in areas that decoupled overnight around mid to late morning as mixing gets going. Otherwise weather remains quiet across the region. No other changes planned attm. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Weak cold front will approach from the north today. Front has already pushed associated clouds into northern zones early this morning. Downsloping winds should help dry some of this moisture as it heads south through the afternoon hours but will likely see scattered to broken clouds working into central and southern zones later this afternoon and early this evening. Aside from a few sprinkles or flurries in northern zones...should see a dry day with high temperatures well above normal. Have gone several degrees above guidance...especially in southern zones where highs will top out in the lower to mid 50s. Elsewhere highs will range through the 40s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... Cold front will drop south through the region overnight. Increasing upslope flow will produce a few evening rain or snow showers in the north with just variable cloudiness during the evening in the south. Expect clearing after midnight. Lows by Monday morning will range from the upper teens to lower 20s north and mid 20s to near 30 south. High pressure will build in from the northwest on Monday. Should see plenty of sun and moderate northwest winds. Highs will range through the 30s to near 40. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Fast and largely unamplified pacific flow continues through the long term period. In general, this means warmer than normal temperatures and a lack of significant weather systems through the work week. The only fly in the ointment is a little weak warm air advection precipitation Tuesday night in an environment characterized by near or above freezing temperatures aloft. This may mean a little light mixed precipitation or light freezing rain for a time Tuesday night which could make some surfaces slick. Otherwise, the next possible significant weather maker could arrive Saturday. At this point it looks pretty warm - could just be a warm and windy event. && .AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Short Term...VFR today with areas of MVFR ceilings in the mountains. VFR Sunday night with areas of MVFR ceilings in the north clearing after midnight. VFR on Monday. Long Term...VFR conditions are expected Monday night and Tuesday. MVFR conditions will be possible Tuesday night in a little light mixed precipitation. VFR conditions are then expected Wednesday and Thursday. && .MARINE... Short Term...Have extended SCA`s through Sunday night for westerly winds of 15 to 25 kts. Long Term...Sub-SCA conditions are expected through the bulk of the Monday night-Thursday period. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Monday for ANZ150-152-154. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...Curtis SHORT TERM...Cannon LONG TERM...Cannon AVIATION... MARINE... is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.