Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 060149 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 949 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER AND GRADUALLY WARMING CONDITIONS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER PASSING TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MIDWEEK. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR LATE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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945 PM UPDATE: VERY QUIET NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. PATCHY FOG STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE VALLEYS LATER TONIGHT. INPUT LATEST MESONET DATA. NO CHANGES NEEDED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: ANY REMAINING SHRA THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE LIMITED TO MID-COAST AND SHOULD END BY 4 PM...AS WEAK SFC BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH SIMILARLY WEAK WAVE ALOFT MOVES OFFSHORE. SFC HIGH BUILDS FROM THE S BEHIND THIS WAVE AND SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT THIS EVENING WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE MID 50S N TO LOW 60S COAST AND SRN NH.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... THE SFC RIDGE NOSES IN FROM THE S MON MORNING...BUT THEN SHIFTS EWD ALLOWING RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP WITH INCREASING LOW LVL MOISTURE. IT WILL BE WARM AS H85 TEMPS AROUND 15 C AND BETWEEN STRONG SUN AND INCREASING SW FLOW...SHOULD SEE TEMPS MIX INTO THE 80S MOST EVERYWHERE BUT THE BEACHES. COULD SEE A FEW SPOTS IN THE MERRIMACK VLY MAKE A RUN AT 90...BUT GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S HERE. SHOULD SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH JUST SOME SCT CU DEVELOPING. MON NIGHT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT WIND...SO RAD COOLING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL CLOSE TO THE TD...WITH LOWS IN THE UPR 50S N...TO LOW MID 60S S...AND SOME PATCHY FOG. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE BROAD CYCLONIC PATTERN ALOFT HOLDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. EVENTUALLY LOW PRESSURE CLOSES OFF OVER THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS FURTHER OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. STILL...THIS ONLY SERVES TO MAKE THE UPPER FLOW SLIGHTLY MORE ZONAL OVER THE NORTHEAST FOR A TIME. TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES IS THE KEY TO WHEN WE WILL SEE ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT OF THESE WAVES OCCURS TUESDAY THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY. NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY LIFTS INTO EASTERN CANADA DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THIS WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS BREAK OUT ON TUESDAY FROM WEST TO EAST. QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS WE WILL SEE ENOUGH DAYTIME HEATING TO INITIATE MULTICELL THUNDERSTORMS WITH PERHAPS A FEW STRONGER CELLS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER VERY WEAK WAVE PASSES BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS. && .AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR THRU MON NIGHT...EXCEPT FOR VLY FOG...LKLY AT KHIE/KLEB TONIGHT...AND A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD ON MON NIGHT. LONG TERM...MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING IN MODERATE SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. PREVAILING VFR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...WINDS/SEAS REMAIN WELL BLO SCA LVLS TONIGHT THU MON NIGHT. SOME SWELL KEEPING SEAS AROUND 3 FT OFFSHORE TONIGHT...AND ONSHORE WILL PICK UP A LITTLE NEAR THE SHORE MON AFTERNOON IN SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS. LONG TERM...MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE FLIRTED WITH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE NO FLAGS ON THE WATERS AS SEAS AND WINDS STAY BELOW CRITERIA. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$

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