Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 291901 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 301 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH ON SUNDAY...BEFORE STALLING OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AND WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW LATE IN THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... THE SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGE AXIS OF HIGH PRES WILL BE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS WILL GUARANTEE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. AREAS OF VALLEY FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE COOL DUE TO THE RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... SATURDAY WILL BEGIN SUNNY BUT SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED AS A WAA PATTERN ALOFT BEGINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE 70S WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE S SO COASTAL AREAS WILL BE COOLEST. SATURDAY NIGHT A WAA PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INCREASING MOISTURE AND CLOUDS. THE SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL HAVE SOME EMBEDDED S/WVS THAT MAY BRUSH NRN AREAS WITH SCT SHWRS OR TSTMS SAT NIGHT AS MODELS SUGGEST. USED A BLEND OF MODELS TO DEVELOP POP FCST. TEMPS SAT NIGHT WILL BE MILDER WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PRECEDE THIS FRONT. FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL INCREASE DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WILL WORK IN TANDEM WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD...THUS THE RELATIVELY HIGH POPS. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE FRONT WILL STALL IN THE VICINITY OF THE CWA ON MONDAY AND THIS WILL AID IN THE CONTINUATION OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT LOOKS TO APPROACH FOR WEDNESDAY...AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A RENEWED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WX LOOKS TO BUILD IN FOR THU AND FRI. && .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... .SHORT TERM...VFR THROUGH SAT...EXCEPT EXPECT SOME FOG IN RIVER VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT. SAT NIGHT SOME MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP IN SCT SHWRS IN THE MTNS. .LONG TERM...OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TUESDAY SHOULD BE VFR...WITH A RENEWED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY. && .MARINE... .SHORT TERM... WINDS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA CRITERIA THROUGH SAT...SEAS ARE RUNNING 2-4 FT ATTM WITH LONG PERIOD DEEP WATER SWELLS. THE SWELLS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT. BY SAT NIGHT SEAS WILL BE INCREASING DUE TO AN INCREASING SLY FLOW AND A SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. .LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. LOW PROB OF SCA CONDITIONS TUE AND TUE NIGHT AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$

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