Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 200156 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 856 PM EST Sun Nov 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A strong cold front has moved through New Hampshire and western Maine with a cold west wind behind it. Expect the temperature to fall into the 20s tonight and not get out of the 30s on Monday as the cold air mass will still be overhead. Expect a brief warm up on Tuesday before another cold front moves through the area on Wednesday bringing a return to colder conditions which should last into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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Update... Winds will continue to slowly diminish this evening. Have lowered the wind advisories as of late this evening. Most locations have decoupled. Very strong winds continue over the higher mountainous terrain and is reflected in the recreational forecast. Clouds and a few snow showers continue over the northwestern third of our forecast area. Have upped pops for this region with some light accumulating snows possible. Minor adjustments made to cloud and temperature forecast. Otherwise very little change to the new forecast package. Prev Disc... Cold front has made its way through the entire forecast area with winds making an abrupt shift to the west and temperatures dropping. It`s rather rare to see such a sharp cold front in New England where interactions with terrain and complex multi- frontal systems usually mean fronts go through in stages. But this one has been easy to follow in surface observations which have shown temperatures falling rapidly behind the front even during the middle of the day. The strong westerly winds continue into the evening and overnight hours as cold advection continues. Any lingering showers will be tied to the terrain and be falling in the form of snow. Low temperatures tonight will generally be in the 20s as the strong push of cold air will keep the low levels well mixed.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... It will be windy again tomorrow, but not as windy as today. Temperatures will not get out of the 30s and may stay in the 20s to the north of the mountains where the core of the cold air is banked up against the terrain. Ridge of high pressure noses into the area overnight Monday night, allowing winds to finally die off. This could lead to some good radiational cooling and cold temperatures in spots that are able to go completely calm, mainly in the east and north. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Strong SW flow develops Tuesday with a significant shortwave moving through on Wednesday. Moisture returns ahead of the system on Tuesday as a warm front lifts NE. An associated cold front will shift offshore Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. Temperatures ahead of the front Tuesday will be similar in pattern to today, with 50s south and 40s north. Temperatures will continue to tumble the next few days thereafter as drier and cooler air funnels in from the north. Large scale troughing will remain across southeastern Canada and the northeastern states through the end of the week. At the surface sprawling high pressure will build across the southern states and NE into the Midwest and New England. && .AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Short Term...Gusty west winds will diminish a bit overnight, but not completely. Will see an increase in gusts again on Monday before the winds finally die off Monday night. VFR conditions are expected except for MVFR ceilings north of the White Mountains. Long Term...VFR Tuesday. Cold front arrives on Wednesday and could see MVFR or IFR conditions in light rain ahead of the front. Expect improvement behind the front for Thursday and Friday. && .MARINE... Short Term...Cold west winds will gust up to 45 KT through this evening before falling below Gale force after midnight. Will likely hang on to advisory level winds through Monday night. With the offshore fetch, wave heights will be highest further from shore. Long Term...Southwesterly flow expected on Tuesday before a cold front moves across the waters on Wednesday. Northerly winds behind this cold front could briefly reach advisory levels Wednesday night. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...Gale Warning until midnight EST tonight for ANZ150>154.
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&& $$ JC

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