Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 302223 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 623 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014 .SYNOPSIS... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AROUND THROUGH MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION SATURDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG IT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... UPDATE... MOST OF THE LASTEST MESOSCALE MODELS NOW SHOWING PRECIP ENTERING THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MAINE AND THE SEACOAST OF NH AROUND 09Z...AND CONTINUING TO AROUND 18Z. THERE ARE A COUPLE OUTLIERS SUCH AS THE HRRR WHICH BRINGS THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ALL THE WAY INTO CENTRAL NH BY 04Z. FEEL THIS IS SOMEWHAT OVERAGRESSIVE WITH THE FAST MOVEMENT/TIMING OF THE PRECIP. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED DEW POINT AND CLOUD COVER GRIDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. PREV DISC... SOME DRIER AIR AND CLEARING NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MAINE NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...OTHERWISE CLOUDS WERE REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. CLOUDS SHOULD FILL BACK IN TONIGHT WITH LOW CLOUD AND FOG. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL SLIDE EAST WITH SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN SPREADING INTO SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST MAINE BY DAWN. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM MID 40S NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTH TONIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE BY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW PIVOTS SOUTHEAST AND SOME DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NORTH WITH THE SURFACE HIGH. THERE WILL BE A TIGHT NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT IN THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD TOMORROW WITH AREAS NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER LIKELY STAYING DRY. HIGHS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 60 WITH WARMEST READINGS LIKELY UPPER CONNECTICUT VALLEY AND ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER GIVEN NO PRECIPITATION AND THINNING CLOUD COVER. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS END WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW SLIDES OFFSHORE. WE`LL SEE BROKEN CLOUDS WITH AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE FARTHER OFFSHORE THURSDAY FOLLOWED CLOSELY BY THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL LOW...HOWEVER IT STALLS DUE TO BLOCKING FARTHER DOWNSTREAM. RESIDUAL WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THIS STALLED SYSTEM WILL KEEP THINGS MOIST ALONG THE COAST BUT EXPECT FOG AND PERHAPS DRIZZLE AT THE MOST IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE ANY LIGHT RAIN SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE. A FEW SHOWERS ATTEMPT TO BACK ONSHORE ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY AND MAY REACH AS FAR AS THE MIDCOAST FRIDAY NIGHT. A SPOKE OF ENERGY/WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTS BACK WEST FROM THE COASTAL STORM AND PROVIDES A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY...AGAIN MAINLY OFFSHORE. THE COASTAL LOW FINALLY SHIFTS EAST AS A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM DEEPENS AND CLOSES OFF OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH NEW ENGLAND MIDDAY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS IS A MUCH SHARPER BOUNDARY AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE HEAVIER AND TOP AN INCH IN THE HEAVIER CELLS. ANTECEDENT CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY BUT WE SHOULD SEE SOME THUNDER WITH -26 C ASSOCIATED WITH THE CORE. COLDER AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THIS FRONT AND ESPECIALLY AFTER ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. && .AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING...LOWERING TO IFR TONIGHT AND FOR A GOOD PORTION OF WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES. LONG TERM...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL KEEP FOG...LOW CLOUDS AND PERHAPS DRIZZLE AROUND THE COAST AND AS FAR INLAND AS KAUG THURSDAY MORNING. MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER ALONG THE MIDCOAST THROUGH FRIDAY. LOWER CEILINGS IN HEAVY SHOWERS WITH SOME TSRA EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY EARLY AFTERNOON...IMPROVING TO VFR WEST TO EAST. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL ONCE INCREASE BY LATER TONIGHT WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KT AND BUILDING SEAS. AN SCA HAS BEEN REISSUED FOR LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY FOR AREAS OUTSIDE THE BAYS. LONG TERM...SEAS WILL BE 5-7 FT THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY OUTSIDE THE BAYS AS A SERIES OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS CROSS THE WATERS. WINDS MAY OCCASIONALLY GUST NEAR 25 KTS. WE WILL LIKELY ISSUE SMALL CRAFTS DURING THESE TIMES. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154. && $$

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