Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 241452 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 952 AM EST Fri Feb 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front will stall just to our south early this morning before returning north as a warm front by late today. A strong cold front accompanied by widespread showers will cross the region Saturday night followed by a drier and colder air mass for Sunday into Monday. A disturbance will approach from the west late Monday and Monday night. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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945 am update: Narrow band of showers across soutern NH and extreme southern ME along a warm front moving north. This narrow band of showers extends west thru upstate NY. Made adjustments to pops based on latest radar and extrapolated timing forward using HRRR. Also made significant adjustments to sky cover for next several hours based on Visible Satellite imagery. Patchy fog continues so will also move it forward to the noontime hours. Temps seem on track with only minor tweaks needed based on latest obs data. No other changes attm. 715 AM...Minor ESTF update to reflect the current mesonet as well as radar trends in near term grids. Prev Disc... At 07z...a cold front extended from our coastal waters into southern New England then westward to a surface low over Missouri. The surface front will stall just to our south by morning. The surface low over Missouri will track into the lower Great Lakes by evening, and begin to push our stalled front northward as a warm front today. We`ll see clouds lower along and ahead of this boundary with showers breaking out across the forecast area. There`ll be some areas of drizzle and fog as the warmer air spreads north over our diminishing snowpack. There`ll be a steep gradient in high temperatures today, with readings only near 40 along the international border while locations along the New Hampshire/Massachusetts border warm to around 60 degrees.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... Low clouds and fog with areas of drizzle is expected tonight as the warmer air flows northward over the snowpack and Gulf of Maine. The surface warm front should remain hung up just south of the mountains and foothills where a few heavier showers will remain possible. It`ll be another unseasonably mild night with lows ranging from the mid 30s to mid 40s. On Saturday...a strong southerly flow should finally push the warm front to our north. Temperatures will warm into the 50s and lower 60s...with only the far northern mountains remaining in the 40s. The fog should lift and we`ll see mostly cloudy skies with scattered showers becoming more widespread by late afternoon ahead of an approaching strong cold front. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Short wave trough embedded in broader and weak long wave troughing will affect the region Sunday night. Near zonal flow/weak ridging will be the rule thereafter until mid week. Another disturbance arrives for the Wednesday-Thursday time frame. On Sunday a cold front will exit into the Atlantic Ocean with upslope flow following in its wake. Ahead of the front temperatures should warm into the mid 40s along southern and coastal sections thanks to gusty westerly flow and compressional warming. Showers should diminish by Monday early morning as moisture diminishes. Temperatures will continue to be warm Monday and Tuesday from the foothills south especially. Over the north we will reach warmer readings by Wednesday as the next warm front lifts over the region. Widespread showers are likely beginning Tuesday and wrapping up on Thursday. P-type will waver between snow and rain showers with an area of rain/snow mix at the interface. This will be largely dependent on surface temperatures and the time of day...with snow move widespread at night and changing over to rain during the daytime. At week`s end high pressure builds in ahead of the next low pressure system churning/deepening in the Great Lakes region. && .AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Short Term /through Saturday/...VFR with lcl IFR in fog through 13z...then conditions lowering to MVFR throughout with areas of IFR in ceilings and -shra. Widespread IFR tonight in drizzle and fog with lcl LIFR. Conditions gradually improving to MVFR with areas of IFR Sat PM in ceilings and -shra. Long Term...Precipitation will continue very lightly across the mtns and possibly foothills into Sunday with areas of MVFR at HIE and LEB. VFR Sunday night into Monday morning with -SHRA developing across the mtns once again. && .MARINE... Short Term /through Saturday/...winds and seas remain below SCA through tonight. Winds and seas should build to SCA on Saturday ahead of an approaching strong cold front. Long Term...SCAs will continue/be needed as seas will stay in the 5-7 ft zone until Monday night with gusts to 25-30 kts in a similar time frame. && .HYDROLOGY... A flood watch remains posted for interior portions of Maine and new Hampshire from 00Z Saturday through 00Z Monday. Daytime temperatures will soar into the 50s and lower 60s through Saturday with mild overnight lows. Light rain will move in today as a warm front moves north producing around 0.25 inches across mostly central and northern locations. On Saturday night, the cold front moves through with another 0.50 to 0.75 possible. The warmth will ripen and melt the snowpack with rivers and streams responding both today and Saturday. Rainfall will add to the runoff late from today through Saturday. At the current time, the main threat is ice jam flooding. The threat is higher in New Hampshire where temperatures will be warmest and precipitation will be heaviest. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...Flood Watch from 7 PM EST this evening through Sunday evening for MEZ007>009-012>014-020-021. NH...Flood Watch from 7 PM EST this evening through Sunday evening for NHZ001>009-011-012-015. MARINE...None. && $$ Near term...Marine

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