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000
FXUS61 KGYX 100824
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
424 AM EDT MON MAR 10 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
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A WEAK WAVE WILL TRACK OUT OF CANADA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. LOW
PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
WEDNESDAY THEN INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF
MAINE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES
INTO THE MARITIMES ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH ON
FRIDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON
SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
SUNDAY.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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ONE WEAK SYSTEM WITH A FEW FLURRIES EXITS TO THE E THIS
MORNING...THEN A WEAK CANADIAN CLIPPER WILL APPROACH THE AREA
LATER TODAY. PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN TODAY IN BETWEEN
SYSTEMS. USED A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET GUID FOR TEMPS TODAY.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
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TONIGHT THE CLIPPER MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SPREADING A PERIOD OF
LIGHT SNOW OR SNW SHWRS ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME LGT ACCUMS OF AN
INCH OR TWO PSBL. THE SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITS BY MORNING. USED A
BLEND OF THE RFCQPF AND GFS/NAM FOR QPF AND SNOW AMTS TNGT. WEAK
HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA TUES WITH SOME CLEARING EXPECTED DUE
TO DOWNSLOPING WINDS.

DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER TONIGHT TEMPS WILL NOT BE THAT COLD
AS PER MAV/MET GUID SUGGESTS. ON TUES A WARMER DAY WITH TEMPS TO
REACH THE 40S AND SOME SOUTHERN MOST AREAS MAY APPROACH 50.
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&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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MAIN FORECAST CONCERN DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE POSSIBLE
WINTER STORM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE AS WELL
AS ENSEMBLES IN OVERALL GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT IN MASS FIELDS
THROUGH THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THERE ARE STILL SOME SIGNIFICANT
DETAILS TO BE WORKED OUT SUCH AS AXIS OF MAX QPF...NORTHWARD
ADVANCEMENT OF WARM LAYERS WHICH WOULD DETERMINE PRECIPITATION
TYPE ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERNMOST ZONES...AND TIMING OF HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION.

SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ARE AT PLAY HERE...AND EVOLUTION AND
TIMING OF THEM WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE THE END RESULT SUCH AS
SFC LOW TRACK AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION TYPES AND AMOUNTS.
HOWEVER...GOOD ENOUGH AGREEMENT EXISTS IN THE 00Z DETERMINISTIC
MODEL AND ENSEMBLE SUITE TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY FOR MOST ZONES.

OVERALL...FELT THAT A COLDER SOLUTION AT THE SURFACE WAS WARRANTED
GIVEN THE GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SURFACE LOW TRACK AND
POSITION OF COLD HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...THERE WILL
PROBABLY BE A TIME WHEN LOCATIONS IN SOUTHERN NH AND COASTAL
SOUTHERN ME WARM UP TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING IN THE
LOWEST 800 MB OR SO DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY TO ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW/SLEET MIX. THIS WOULD HOLD
ACCUMULATIONS DOWN WEDNESDAY DAYTIME THERE. HOWEVER...AS THE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER MOVES TO AROUND CAPE COD WEDNESDAY
EVENING...COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN AND LIKELY RESULT IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW EVEN AT THE COAST. AT THIS TIME...WE HAVE
HELD OFF ON THE WATCH FOR COASTAL CUMBERLAND COUNTY ME SOUTHWARD
TO ROCKINGHAM COUNTY NH. HOWEVER...WE STILL THINK WARNING AMOUNTS
ARE QUITE POSSIBLE WED NIGHT THERE...BUT DID NOT WANT TO START A
WATCH IN THE 6TH PERIOD. ONE MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED THERE TODAY OR
TONIGHT. IT/S WORTH MENTIONING THAT A MOSTLY SNOW SCENARIO ON WED
IS STILL ON THE TABLE IN THOSE ZONES TOO...BUT WE/RE JUST NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH ON THAT SCENARIO YET. THE DRY SLOT WILL PROBABLY
ALSO BECOME AN ISSUE WED EVENING

AS IS USUALLY THE CASE WITH SEVERAL SHORT WAVES AT
PLAY...CHANGES IN FORECAST LOW TRACK...AXIS OF HEAVIEST
PRECIP...AND TIMING ARE LIKELY. WIND WILL PROBABLY BE A PLAYER TOO
WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU...WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH POSSIBLE. A
WET SNOW ON THE COAST MAY ALSO CAUSE SOME ISSUES WITH WEIGHT ON
POWER LINES AND TREE BRANCHES. THE DRY SLOT WILL PROBABLY ALSO
BECOME AN ISSUE WED NIGHT BEFORE WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION
OCCURS...BUT MUCH OF THE STORM TOTAL QPF WILL LIKELY HAVE ALREADY
FALLEN BEFORE THAT OCCURS.

THE STORM WILL MOVE AWAY ON THURSDAY. IN ITS WAKE...RELATIVELY
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE EXTENDED.
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&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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SHORT TERM...VFR CIGS TODAY WILL LOWER TO MVFR/IFR AT TIMES TONIGHT IN
SNW SHWRS. CONDS BECOME VFR AGAIN BY TUES MORNING.

LONG TERM...VFR BECOMING IFR OR LOWER ON WEDNESDAY IN SNOW AND
MIXED PRECIPITATION. CONDITIONS EVENTUALLY IMPROVE THURSDAY
MORNING.
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&&

.MARINE...
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SHORT TERM...A WEAK PRES GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS THROUGH TUES
WITH WINDS/SEAS TO REMAIN BLO SCA CONDS.

LONG TERM...STRONG LOW PRESSURE TRACKING IN THE GULF OF MAINE
MIDWEEK WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN GALES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. A GALE WATCH MAY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY.
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&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-018>022-025>028.
NH...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NHZ001>010.
MARINE...NONE.
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&&

$$

LONG TERM...MLE