-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KGYX 081755
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1255 PM EST SUN DEC 8 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY
BEFORE SHIFTING EAST TONIGHT. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA ON MONDAY...PROVIDING A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
1PM UPDATE...
HAVE RAISED FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES IN NORTHERN AREAS AS
TEMPERATURES THERE HAVE ALREADY REACHED FORECAST HIGHS. HAVE ALSO
INCREASED SKY COVER FORECAST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS SEMI-
TRANSPARENT CIRRUS DECK HAS MOVED IN. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT
FORECAST CHANGES FOR TODAY.

830AM UPDATE...
HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS UPDATE.
HAVE ADJUSTED NEAR TERM TEMPERATURES TO MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS
AND TRENDS. HAVE ALSO ZEROED OUT POP FORECAST FOR TODAY AS NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
SURFACE/UPPER RIDGE AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION
TODAY WITH HIGH CLOUDS TO SPILL ACROSS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS AS THE
DAY ROLLS ON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE 20S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO LOWER 30S ALONG THE COAST. USED A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET
FOR TEMPERATURES.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND MONDAY/...
TONIGHT THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES OFFSHORE. AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE FROM THE SW WILL ALLOW A DEVELOPING SOUTHWESTERLY WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN OF OVERRUNNING CLOUDS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION WITH LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP OVER NH AND SW MAINE AFTER
MIDNIGHT. ON MONDAY THE SNOW RAPIDLY OVERSPREADS THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. DURING THE AFTERNOON ENOUGH WARM ADVECTION MAKES
ITS WAY INTO NH AND SOUTHERN MAINE TO ALLOW A CHANGEOVER TO A
MIXED BAG OF PRECIPITATION BEFORE ENDING BY MID- LATE AFTERNOON AS
A DRY SLOT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE BULK OF THE QPF SHOULD
FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW. MODELS GENERALLY AGREE TOTAL QPF AROUND
.25-.35 EXCEPT FOR GFS WHICH IS HIGHEST AROUND .5-.6. WILL BLEND
QPF OF OTHER MODELS WITH LOWER QPF SINCE INITIAL DRY DOME OF AIR
OVER REGION MAY LIMIT LAYER FROM BECOME SATURATED TOO QUICKLY.
GENERALLY A 2-4 INCH SNOWFALL EXPECTED BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER. AT
THIS TIME NO HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED. FOR TEMPERATURES EXPECT
COLD AIR DAMMING TO LIMIT MAX TEMPERATURES SO FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURES OFF THE BLENDED MODELS MAY BE TOO WARM IF ANYTHING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY LINGERING MONDAY EVENING...PROBABLY A
WINTRY MIX IF NOT DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE. THINGS DRY OUT
LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND FOR TUESDAY ASIDE FROM SOME UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE
AREA LATE WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BRING A COLD AIR MASS
INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS FRONT MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME SNOW
SHOWERS OR SQUALLS. ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT LOOKS TO PASS ACROSS THE
AREA AROUND EITHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
AIR. THE MODELS DIVERGE OVER THE WEEKEND AS TO HOW LONG THE COLD
AIR WILL HANG AROUND. THE 00Z ECMWF IS BACK TO ITS REALLY COLD
SOLUTION FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WHILE THE OTHER MODELS ARE
QUITE A BIT WARMER. WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW FAR SOUTH THE POLAR VORTEX
WANTS TO PAY A VISIT. IN A NUTSHELL...THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL
FEATURE MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH COLDER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR THRU TONIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ACROSS
NH AND WESTERN ME AFTER 06Z MONDAY IN SNOW. AFTER 12Z CONDITIONS
LOWER TO IFR IN SNOW AND THEN MIXED PRECIPITATION SPREADING FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH.

LONG TERM...MVFR OR LOWER TO START MONDAY NIGHT...THEN IMPROVEMENT
TO VFR FORESEEN LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FURTHER BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA SO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS CANCELLED FOR
THE REST OF THE NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE WATERS TODAY
AND TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. AN INCREASING ESE FLOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL ALLOW BOTH WINDS AND SEAS TO REACH
ADVISORY LEVELS MONDAY.

LONG TERM...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE FORESEEN FOR A GOOD CHUNK
OF THE WEEK AS BURSTS OF COLD AIR ADVECTION MOVE OVER THE WATERS.
COULD BE CLOSE TO GALE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE... KIMBLE