Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 031714 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 1214 PM EST Sat Dec 3 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure over eastern Canada will move east into the maritimes by tonight. This system will provide scattered snow showers in the mountains today. A ridge of high pressure will slowly build into the region by Sunday, before moving offshore Sunday night. A weak weather disturbance may bring a few snow showers to the region Monday. Otherwise, cold high pressure will settle in for the start of the week. A snow and rain mixture may enter the region midweek. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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1215 PM Update...With short wave trough moving through the mean NW flow, enough forcing for ascent is present to allow for some light spotty showers down to the coastal plain in ME. Have therefore updated pops a bit. No big changes otherwise...just plenty of clouds and gusts 25-30 MPH. 1010 AM Update...Just a few minor adjustments to the going forecast based on latest trends in observational data. Upslope snow showers in the mountains are expected to continue this afternoon into this evening as cool cyclonic flow with embedded sewd moving short waves continue. A few additional inches possible in most west-nw facing terrain in NH and the far western ME mountains. Otherwise, variable cloudiness and wind gusts around 25 mph expected downwind of the mountains to the coast for the rest of the afternoon. Previously... A cold cyclonic flow will dominate today with gusty northwest winds with cold air advection and scattered orographic snow showers in the mountains and higher terrain. An inch or two of additional snow is possible in the areas where more favored orogaphic lift gets enhanced on the northwest flow. Downsloping areas will see some sun. Temps will be colder with highs off the blended models which puts them into the lower 30s in the mountains to lower 40s along the coast.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... The northwest flow abates as the area of low pressure in the maritimes continues to move east allowing high pressure to build east from the Great Lakes region. Skies will become clear over most areas except in the mountains where clouds will linger. Over night lows will range from the upper teens in the mountains to upper 20s to near 30 along the coast. Sunday a surface and upper ridge axis will move across the area producing sunny skies and lighter winds. The center of the cold air mass will be over the area so high temps are only expected to range from the mid 20s in the mounhtains to mid 30s elsewhere. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Surface high pressure will crest over the region Sunday night. This will allow for clear skies and light winds which will lead to radiational cooling. The cold thermal profiles will allow for scattered light snow showers or a period of light snow to develop as a weak and fast moving trough approaches from the west. What little snowfall will mainly be confined to western areas. Some of the snow will likely sublimate as it falls through a dry layer in the lower levels of the atmosphere. High pressure will reestablish itself over New England on Wednesday as low pressure passes by well south of the region, bringing mainly just clouds to the region. By Thursday, a more vigorous area of low pressure will move northeast from the Ohio River Valley and into Southeast Canada. This will allow for a moist southerly flow to develop on Thursday along the coast. Further inland, an inversion may remain in place as strong warm air advection occurs above the surface. A mixture of rain and snow will change to snow showers by Friday as a strong cold front sweeps through the region behind the departing and intensifying area of low pressure moving through southern Canada. This will set the stage for a prolonged period of below normal temperatures and gusty west to southwest winds. && .AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Short Term /through Sunday/...VFR conditions except MVFR at KHIE into the afternoon. By early evening conditions at KHIE also improve to VFR. Long Term...VFR conditions expected Sunday through Monday morning. Areas of MVFR/IFR ceilings Monday afternoon, mainly over New Hampshire. VFR Monday night and Tuesday. IFR/LIFR ceilings/vsbys developing on Wednesday. && .MARINE... Short Term /through Sunday/...SCA conditions expected into tonight in the bays and through later toonight over the outer waters. Strong cold advection combined with a rather strong Northwest pressure gradient will cuase gusty conditions to approach 30 kts at times. Tonight with colder air over the warmer waters some enhanced gusts possible over the outer waters so extended the times for those outlying areas. Long Term... Winds and seas will remain below SCA thresholds for several days. However, southeasterly winds and seas will increase Thursday and Thursday night. A wind shift to the west will occur Friday, ushering colder air on Gale Force winds. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ151- 153. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Sunday for ANZ150-152-154. && $$ NEAR TERM...Ekster

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