Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 261254 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 854 AM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A series of upper level disturbances will cross the area this week, bringing chances for showers or thunderstorms, especially in the mountains. Otherwise temperatures will be near normal with lower humidity into mid week. Warmer and more humid conditions move in at the end of the week, with a chance of showers and thunderstorms Thursday night into Friday. More chances for some storms will accompany a low pressure system Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Update... Cu field will continue to expand over northern areas today as a short wave approaches from the west. Best chance for any precipitation will be late in the day and across the north and west. Made minor adjustments to temperatures and dew point forecasts. Dry surface conditions with dew points currently running in the upper 40s to lower 50s across the region. ORIGINAL DISCUSSION... Expect continued drying today behind a weak cold front this morning. We should see high temperatures in the 70s, which is near to a little bit below normal for this time of year. With dewpoints in the low 50s or even upper 40s, humidity will be quite comfortable. With dry air in place it will be tough to get showers and thunderstorms going this afternoon, but there will be a shortwave trough moving in from the west late in the day. This could help to trigger a few showers or an isolated thunderstorm which may drift into New Hampshire from the west late.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... Shortwave trough moves in from the west tonight, with remnant showers tracking into northern New Hampshire and northwest Maine overnight. Temperatures fall comfortably into the 50s, though some 40s are also possible. While the initial shortwave trough and its associated showers drift northeast into central Maine, another sharper upper trough crosses the area from west to east on Tuesday. This should provide the support for more widespread showers and a few thunderstorms. With dry air still in place at the surface, instability for showers will be generated by cold temperatures aloft. There is a moderate amount of shear available to aid in storm organization on Tuesday, but do believe that instability will be the biggest limiting factor. With cold temperatures aloft and dry air at the surface, a threat of wind and hail from these thunderstorms cannot be ruled out. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Not too many changes to the long term portion of the forecast at this time as 00z guidance suite and latest ensemble data show decent run to run consistency. We`ll start off the long term period with an approaching upper level trough Tuesday evening. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will likely be around early Tuesday evening before dissipating with the loss of daytime heating. However, with cold temps aloft overhead on Wednesday as well, we`ll likely reignite showers and a few thunderstorms. The flow flattens out come Thursday across the northern tier of states with a SFC warm front pushing in from the southwest. Chances for showers will increase as Thursday progresses in advance of the warm front (mainly during the afternoon and early evening - the morning should be fine). There could be a fair amount of thunder around Thursday night as elevated instability increases. This will come with the threat of locally heavy rainfall. Slightly better weather is expected Friday, with warm and humid weather and a chance of showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms with SFC troughing still hanging around. Yet another short wave trough approaches for Saturday, and this may mean another round of showers and thunderstorms with a warm and humid air mass in place. With high PWATS some heavy rainfall is once again possible depending on timing and path of short waves. Overall, a fairly unsettled extended period with at least a chance of showers most every day with thunderstorms and heavy rainfall possible from time to time. && .AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Short Term...Expect VFR conditions today and tonight, with a chance of an afternoon shower or possibly a thunderstorm mainly over western New Hampshire late this afternoon into tonight. Long Term...VFR should be predominant, with tempo flight restrictions in showers and storms, especially in the mountains. IFR conditions are more likely Thursday night in low clouds and rain. && .MARINE... Short Term...Generally light wind flow over the waters with a weak front moving through this morning. Long Term...Winds/seas remain below SCA through Thu. May need SCA in SW winds Thu night into Fri. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Cannon SHORT TERM...Cannon LONG TERM...Schwibs is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.