Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 051004 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 604 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE ALOFT AND ITS ASSOCIATED COOL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PRODUCE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THURSDAY...AS IT SHIFTS SLOWLY EASTWARD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY. A COASTAL LOW MAY MOVE UP THE COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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600 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS...AND TO INGEST MESONET. PREV DISC... AT 06Z...THE FIRST COLD FRONT HAD EXITED INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. A SECOND COLD FRONT WAS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED AN UPPER LOW VICINITY OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF HUDSON BAY. NWS DOPPLER RADAR MOSAIC SHOWED WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM UPSTATE NEW YORK THROUGH NORTHWEST NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC. ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...CLOUDS WERE CONFINED TO NORTHERN AND MOUNTAIN SECTIONS. ELSEWHERE...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WERE ALLOWING AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG TO FORM. FOR TODAY...WE`LL SEE A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE PIVOT AROUND THE UPPER LOW AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WHICH WILL DRIVE THE COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE AREA. DAYTIME HEATING COUPLED WITH COOL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TODAY. MODIFIED BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS YIELD CAPES AT OR ABOVE 1000 J/KG WITH RELATIVELY LOW FREEZING LEVELS. WINDEX ALSO SUGGESTS THAT GUSTY SUB SEVERE WIND GUSTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG WITH HAIL. I`VE GONE AHEAD AND CONTINUED WITH ENHANCED WORDING FOR TODAY`S CONVECTION. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 70 IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE CLOUDS AND CONVECTION SHOULD BE MOST WIDESPREAD...TO THE LOWER 80S OVER SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... SOME LINGERING CLOUDS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TONIGHT IN CYCLONIC FLOW WITH A BRIEF SPRINKLE POSSIBLE...OTHERWISE MAINLY CLEAR ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S. ON THURSDAY...CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND SOUTH AND EAST OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH HEATING AND CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW. EXPECT A FEW INSTABILITY SHOWERS...BUT WITH LESS COVERAGE THEN TODAY AND LARGELY LIMITED TO THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. HIGHS TOMORROW SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 70S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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THE FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THE LONG TERM IS THE POSSIBLE COASTAL LOW FOR THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING FARTHER TO THE EAST HOWEVER THE NEW ECMWF IS FARTHER WEST AND IS INDICATING A SOAKING RAIN FOR MID COAST MAINE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE GFS KEEPS LOW FARTHER OUT TO THE EAST. UNTIL THEN WE WILL SEE DRIER AND COOLER AIR. DEPENDING ON THE OUTCOME OF THE COASTAL SYSTEM THE PLEASANT WEATHER MAY COULD CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH HAVE A POTENT LOW APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY.
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&& .AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH THU/...AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG WITH LCL IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z. MAINLY VFR THIS MORNING...THEN AREAS OF MVFR IN SCT -SHRA/TSRA. VFR AFT 23Z TONIGHT WITH LCL IFR PSBL BTWN 08 AND 12Z THU IN STRATUS AND FOG. VFR THURSDAY WITH BRIEF LCL MVFR PSBL IN SCT -SHRA. LONG TERM... EXPECT VFR THROUGH SATURDAY. MAY SEE MVFR/IFR AT COASTAL TAF SITES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY DEPENDING ON TRACK OF SURFACE LOW. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THRU THU. LONG TERM... WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA. HOWEVER SCA/GALE WINDS AND SEAS POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND DEPENDING ON FINAL TRACK OF SURFACE LOW. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ ES

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