Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 291646 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 1246 PM EDT Sat Apr 29 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front will drop south through the region early today and will stall south of New England tonight as high pressure builds in from the northwest. High pressure will crest over the region early Sunday before shifting offshore. A warm front will lift north toward the region Sunday night and Monday. Low pressure slowly moving northeast out of the Great lakes will drive an occlusion through the region Monday night and early Tuesday. A trough of low pressure will linger over the area Tuesday night and Wednesday. Low pressure will approach from the south on Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... noon update... Winds have increased with some gusts to around 20mph as northwesterly flow moves in behind the front. Cloud cover continues to linger across the region. 9am update... clearing is beginning to work its way into New Hampshire this morning and showers have dissipated so have removed mention of rain through the morning. Will see a few gusty winds this afternoon as the front moves through. 6AM Update.... Quick update to adjust temps/tds/sky and rh grids. Some light shower activity showing up across the region early this morning as a cold front drops south through the region. Not seeing any reports of rain in current surface obs and expect little if anything reaching the ground as precip falling out of 10k mid level deck of clouds. After a mostly cloudy morning expect diminishing clouds this afternoon as the front pushes south. No other changes planned attm. Previous disc... Weak frontal boundary dropping south through the region this morning not producing much more than variable clouds across the region. Radar showing some light shower activity back across the lower Hudson Valley and southern New England and some of this activity may scrape southern zones during the early morning hours. Expect any QPF to be light and spotty. After variable high and mid level clouds this morning...expect increasing sun this afternoon as the front pushes south of the region. Freshening westerly flow will help boost temperatures well above normal with most areas ranging through the 70s. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... Frontal boundary will stall south of New England tonight as high pressure builds into the region from the northwest. Looking for mostly clear skies overnight and diminishing winds. Lows will range from the upper 20s to mid 30s north and lower to mid 40s south. High pressure will shift offshore on Sunday as stalled frontal boundary begins lifting north as a warm front. Looking for increasing high and mid level clouds during the day as the front edges in from the west. May also see a late day shower in northwest zones as mid level over-running becomes more organized but any QPF should be light and spotty. Will see cooler temperatures with much of the region ranging through the 50s to near 60. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... The long term period will start out with strong stacked low pressure over the central plains Sunday night which will then move toward the Great Lakes on Monday. At the same time, mid and upper level ridging will pump northward over New England. This sounds like a good thing for our neck of the woods, but high pressure over Ontario will nose in at the SFC across New England which should keep us cool, cloudy, and potentially drizzly. The good news is that strong forcing for ascent will remain to our north and west Sunday night and Monday which should keep any heavy rainfall across Quebec and northern ME. However, drier air aloft combined with easterly SFC winds will likely keep much of our CWA colder than normal with a good chance of low clouds and drizzle through Monday. Eventually the low pressure system does kick northeastward out of the Great Lakes Monday night and Tuesday which will aid in kicking the dreary low level air mass out of here. This should allow us to warm up into the 60s on Tuesday but still with a good deal of clouds and the potential for showers. High pressure will build in on Wednesday in the wake of a cold front but it will be a cooler airmass. However, we`ll mostly be dry except for the mountains which may see some showers, especially earlier in the day. Early indications are that a strong low pressure system will move northeastward toward our region Thursday and Friday which could set the stage for some heavy rainfall. However, confidence is low at this time given the time range from the potential event. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Short Term...VFR today through Sunday. Long Term...IFR conditions likely develop by late Sunday night or Monday morning as easterly flow provides low clouds and light rain or drizzle. These conditions likely persist through Monday night before some improvement is likely Tuesday and Wednesday. && .MARINE... Short Term...No flags. Long Term...SCA conditions likely Tuesday and Wednesday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Moderate humidity levels expected through Sunday with a few scattered showers adding to the moisture this morning. No fire weather issues expected through the weekend. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...Curtis SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION... MARINE... FIRE WEATHER... is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.