Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 171715 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 115 PM EDT Tue Oct 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build in from the west this morning then hold south of New England through Wednesday. A cold front will approach from the west Thursday then cross the region Thursday night. High pressure will build in from the west on Friday and will hold over the region through the upcoming weekend. A slow moving area of low pressure will approach from the west next Monday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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115 PM Update...Just a few minor adjustments to temps and wind for the rest of today. Winds continue to diminish. 10 AM Update...Little change to the going forecast. Did add more clouds to northernmost zones today as WAA strengthens and spreads a period of bkn cloudiness across that area beginning around 15z. Otherwise, the rest of the region should remain mostly sunny. 600 AM...For this ESTF update...only minor adjustments to near term grids that reflect satellite low cloud trend and latest mesonet. Prev disc... At 06z...a 1028 millibar high was centered over Ohio. Outside of some patchy low clouds trapped below the subsidence inversion...skies were clear across the area on GOES composite imagery. After a chilly but sunny start...temperatures should rebound into the 50s by afternoon across the forecast area. We should see a few warm air advection clouds arrive by afternoon...mainly over northern and mountain sections...as a shortwave impulse and associated surface system move into Quebec.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... We`ll continue to see a few clouds mainly over northern and mountain sections tonight with the weak system over Quebec as a trailing cold front drops into the area. Lows should be similar to this morning in most locations. On Wednesday...we`ll see sunshine mixed with a few clouds at times as the weak cold front returns to our north as a warm front. It`ll turn milder with temperatures averaging a good ten degrees above normal for the date. Highs will range from the lower 60s along the international border to near 70 over southern and coastal sections. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... The long dry and mild weather pattern to continue through this weekend. There is the potential for beneficial shower activity early next week. A large dome of high pressure will dominate the region with mainly clear skies and dry conditions Wednesday night. It will not be as chilly as previous nights with lows mainly in the lower to mid 40s in most communities. Yet another moisture starved cold front will approach from the northwest on Thursday. Ahead of this system, a brisk southwest flow will allow for H8 temperatures to reach +8C. With mainly sunny conditions and good mixing, this should allow readings into the upper 60s and lower 70s across Maine and New Hampshire which is well above normal for this time of the year. An increasing northwest flow behind the departing front will allow for a brief cool off period on Friday. However, strong downsloping will still send temperatures well into the 60s over southern areas, a good 10 degrees above normal. The large area of high pressure will be situated over New England on Saturday. A further moderating trend will begin as the flow switches to the southwest with the surface ridge moving off the coastline. The onshore flow may lead to some low cloudiness, especially along and near the coastline late in the weekend. By early next week, models continue to slowly come in better agreement with a slow moving trough approaching the east coast. Plenty of moisture will potentially move poleward from the tropical Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico to bring well needed precipitation to the region next week. && .AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Short Term /through Wednesday/...VFR. Long Term...VFR conditions expected. However, low clouds off the Gulf of Maine may lead to lowering ceilings, mainly along the coast next Monday. && .MARINE... Short Term /through Wednesday/...Southwest winds are expected to increase tonight on the waters and gust around 25 kt on the ocean. A SCA has been issued for tonight as a result. Long Term...SCAs may be needed Thursday along and ahead approaching front as a southwesterly gradient increases over the waters. Northwesterly winds may reach SCA thresholds behind the departing front as well on Friday. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ150-152-154. && $$

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