Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 010716 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 316 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OFF THE COAST TODAY. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY AND WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL CREST OVER THE REGION THURSDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
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THE DISTURBANCE THAT TRIGGERED THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE HAS PASSED TO OUR EAST. STILL PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE. THEREFORE...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF A STRAY SHOWER TODAY WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM AS WELL. AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY MIX OUT AND LIFT THIS MORNING AS WELL.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND TUESDAY/...
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PATCHY FOG FORMS AGAIN TONIGHT AND MAY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF CLOUD COVER WITH THE APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. POPS WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BREAKING OUT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL CONTAIN MORE MOISTURE THAN THE LAST SYSTEM...SO SHOWERS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD. LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGESTS THERE COULD BE LINE SEGMENTS WITHIN THIS CONVECTIVE SYSTEM.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AS IT DOES SO... ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. SHOULD SEE CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND IT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE DOWNSLOPING... SO WARMEST AREAS WILL BE NEAR THE COAST WHERE HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOW 80S. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND PLENTY OF SUN. TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES WITH A SEABREEZE AT THE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNING. THIS WILL BRING WARMER AIR INTO THE AREA... AND MUCH OF THE REGION WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. GFS MODEL HAS THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM ALONG IT. ECMWF DELAYS THE FRONT UNTIL SATURDAY. HAVE INCLUDED POP FOR BOTH PERIODS AS WELL AS INTO SATURDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR TIMING UNCERTAINTY OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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SHORT TERM...LIFR CONDITIONS WITH AREAS OF FOG EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY BEGIN TO LIFT. LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF NOCTURNAL FOG AT THE USUAL SPOTS. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
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&& .MARINE...
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SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS ON THE WATERS...BUT LOW VISIBILITY THIS MORNING. LONG TERM...COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT BUT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS QUIET CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT.
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&& .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ LONG TERM... KIMBLE

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