Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KGYX 011643 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 1143 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...PRODUCING SOME LIGHT SNOW. A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SET UP IN ITS WAKE ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL CREST OVER THE REGION EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE WILL SWING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA TUESDAY NIGHT PUSHING A WARM NORTH ACROSS THE REGION...AND PRODUCING A PERIOD OF SNOW...SLEET...OR FREEZING RAIN. AS THE LOW SHIFT TO OUT NORTH...IT WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY AND WILL CREST OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
UPDATE... HAVE UPDATED GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST HIGHS AS SOME AREAS STRUGGLING TO CLIMB THROUGH THE 20S WITH CLOUD COVER. SNOW CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EAST...HOWEVER MUCH OF THIS IS INITIALLY DRYING UP WITH VERY DRY INITIAL CONDITIONS IN MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE WITH DEW POINTS STILL BELOW ZERO. SNOW WILL ENTER SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE SPREADING EAST. PREV DISC... CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND THICKEN ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. WILL SEE LIGHT SNOW BREAKING OUT IN NEW HAMPSHIRE DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL PUSH EAST INTO WESTERN MAINE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ONLY LOOKING AT ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY WITH MOST OF THAT IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. ONCE AGAIN TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGH GENERALLY RANGING THROUGH THE 20S.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY/... LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA AS LOW PRESSURE PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. STORM TOTALS FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE ALTHOUGH SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE MAY SEE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES. LOWS TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE TEENS NORTH AND 20S SOUTH. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS INTO THE MARITIMES. EXPECT ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS TO END BY LATE MORNING DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH PARTIAL CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON AS STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP BEHIND THE FRONT. INCREASING UPSLOPE FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWERS GOING IN THE MOUNTAINS. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO BE REACHED IN THE MORNING BEFORE DROPPING BACK IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 30S SOUTH. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... MODELS CONTINUE SUGGEST CHANGES TO THE NRN HEMISPHERE 500 MB PATTERN....WITH SHORTER WAVELENGTHS IN THE FLOW...AND LESS ESTABLISHED BLOCKING. THIS WILL GENERALLY MAKE FOR A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN...AND MAY ALLOW SOME WARMER AIR TO BEGIN TO NUDGE POLEWARD. THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL ALSO LIMIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY SIGNIFICANT ERN CONUS STORMS. MON EVE STARTS OFF WITH GUSTY NW FLOW AND SOME MN SHSN...BUT THE WINDS AND SHSN WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH BEFORE MIDNIGHT...AND CONTINUE TO DO SO OVERNIGHT. SOME LATE RAD COOLING WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL TO AROUND ZERO IN THE NORTH...AND AROUND 10 ABOVE ALONG THE COAST /WHICH COMPARED TO RECENTLY IS NOT AS COLD...BUT STILL ABOUT 10 DEGREES BLO NORMAL/. TUE WILL START OFF SUNNY...BUT INCREASING MID-HIGH CLOUDS OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM SW-NE...WITH AN CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SN IN SW NH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH IN GENERALLY THE PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL TUE NIGHT. TUE NIGHT WILL SEE MAINLY WAA PRECIP STARTING OFF AS SNOW CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO THE EVENING. BY THE PRE- DAWN HOURS WILL START TO ABV FREEZING AIR WORKING ALOFT...MAINLY ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF NH AND SW ME....AND COULD SEE PRECIP CHANGE OVER TO PL/FZRA FOR A TIME. HOWEVER...BULK OF THE OVERNIGHT WILL BE SNOW...AND SEVERAL INCHES ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE ANY CHANGE IN THE S AND W ZONES...AS WELL AS THE REST OF THE CWA WHERE SNOW CONTINUES THRU THE NIGHT. OVERALL QPF ARE RUNNING 0.25-0.5" ATTM. GENERALLY THE MODELS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS FIRST WAVE AND PRECIP MOVES OUT WED MORNING...ALTHOUGH IT COULD END AS A A LITTLE FZRA OR JUST PLAIN RAIN ON THE COAST AND IN SRN NH AS TEMPS WILL BE RISING THRU THE TUE NIGHT AND ON WED....WHEN HIGHS COULD TOP AROUND 40 IN MANY SPOTS. MODEL CONSENSUS WOULD KEEP THE WEAK COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THRU LATE WED STALLED WELL TO OUR S...AND HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE AREA THU. HOWEVER...THE HEMI CMC LIFTS IT BACK FAR ENOUGH N TO POSSIBLY BRUSH THE COAST WITH A LITTLE PRECIP...AND THE CMC HAS BEEN PERFORMING WELL THIS WINTER...SO SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON FOR NOW. EITHER WAY...THE KICKER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH ON THU AND IT TURNS COLDER AGAIN FOR FRI AND SAT...ALTHOUGH HIGHS WILL GET INTO THE 20S TO AROUND 30 FRI/SAT...THIS IS STILL 10 DEGREES OR SO BLO NORMAL. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHORT TERM...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS/VSBY DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING OVERNIGHT. BECOMING VFR ON MONDAY WITH AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS/VSBY IN THE MOUNTAINS. LONG TERM...WILL LKLY SEE A PERIOD OF IFR AT ALL TERMINALS IN SNOW TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. KLEB/KCON/KMHT/KPWM ALL COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF PL/FZRA LATE TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EXPECTED WED AFTERNOON THROUGH THU. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS TODAY OR TONIGHT. GALES LIKELY ON MONDAY. LONG TERM...GALES WILL LINGER INTO MON EVE...BUT SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE OVERNIGHT. THESE WINDS WILL BE USHERING ANOTHER ROUND COLD AIR...AND FREEZING SPRAY IS LIKELY MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE. SCA MAY BE NEEDED TUE NIGHT IN SW FLOW. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.