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000
FXUS61 KGYX 091944
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
344 PM EDT SUN MAR 9 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT WITH A WEAK LOW TRACKING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA BRINGING SOME CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW. ANOTHER WAVE WILL TRACK OUT OF CANADA MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW TO MUCH OF THE
AREA. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BY TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
WEDNESDAY THEN INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF
MAINE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES
INTO THE MARITIMES ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH ON
FRIDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON
SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
SUNDAY.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
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AFTER ANOTHER BRIGHT AND SUNNY, BUT COOLER, DAY TODAY... EXPECT
INCREASING CLOUDS THIS EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT OF
THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT. LOW LEVELS ARE PRETTY DRY AND MUCH OF THE FORCING WITH
THIS SYSTEM IS ALOFT... SO IT MAY BE DIFFICULT TO SQUEEZE MUCH
SNOW OUT OF THIS. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE PRIMARILY ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE BY MORNING. A DUSTING UP TO AS MUCH AS ONE
INCH IS POSSIBLE.

TEMPERATURES DROP QUICKLY THIS EVENING IN THE DRY AIR AND CLEAR
SKIES... BUT AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES OVERNIGHT AND WARM ADVECTION
BEGINS... TEMPERATURES MAY RISE ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN AREAS. MOST
AREAS WILL SEE THEIR LOW TEMPERATURES OCCUR BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
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FIRST WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE AREA IN THE
MORNING... BRINGING A BRIEF BREAK IN THE CLOUDS BEFORE THE NEXT
WAVE MOVES IN BY MONDAY EVENING. HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...
ONLY A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE NEXT WAVE IS A LITTLE
STRONGER... WITH MORE PRONOUNCED SURFACE FEATURES INCLUDING A WARM
FRONT. WILL LIKELY SEE WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT... BUT ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST AREAS. A
LITTLE MORE SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM... AND ACCUMULATIONS
COULD RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES. PRECIPITATION MAY CHANGE TO RAIN
IN SOUTHERN AREAS AS TEMPERATURES COULD ONCE AGAIN RISE OVERNIGHT.
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&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK/VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVE BY EARLY TUESDAY AS
THE SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT MOVE TO OUR NE. THIS ALLOWS ANY
PRECIPITATION EARLY IN THE DAY TO END FROM SW TO NE WITH W NW
SURFACE FLOW TO DEVELOP. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP AS 850 MB
TEMPERATURES BETWEEN ZERO AND MINUS 5C. DOWNSLOPING W NW FLOW
AIDS DOWNSLOPE AREAS AND HELPS KEEP OUT ANY SEA BREEZE ALONG THE
COAST. SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE PROVIDE FAIR
WEATHER TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP A SHARP DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION WHICH INTENSIFIES A SURFACE LOW
MOVING TO THE E ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. AS THE
INTENSIFYING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM DRIVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE E COAST
THE SURFACE LOW STRENGTHENS AND MOVES NE UP THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST THEN INTO THE GULF OF MAINE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW THEN
HEADS INTO THE MARITIMES ON THURSDAY. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH TIMING, TRACK AND STRENGTH...THOUGH
THEY ARE NOW TRYING TO BRING IN SOME WARM AIR AT THE START OF THE
EVENT LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS INDICATED BY 850 MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND OR EVEN ABOVE 0C ACROSS SOUTHERN/SE NH AND THE
COAST OF ME. HOWEVER...WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING TO THE EAST
WITH HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND DYNAMIC COOLING ALONG WITH SURFACE LOW
TRACKING OFF THE COAST THE AIR COLUMN COOLS WITH TIME WHICH WILL
CAUSE ANY RAIN OR MIXED PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW.

FOR THIS POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM WILL USE A BLEND OF MODELS/CLIMATE
AND PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH PROVIDES HIGH POPS AND HI QPF AROUND AN
INCH...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS AROUND 3/4 OF AN INCH ACROSS OUR MOST
N/NW ZONES WHICH WILL BE FURTHEST FROM THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW.
HOWEVER...ADJUSTED QPF DOWN SOME DUE TO UNCERTAINTY LEAVING AMOUNTS
WEDNESDAY THRU WEDNESDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM HALF AN INCH FAR N TO
JUST UNDER AN INCH MID COAST. PRECIPITATION TYPE STILL
QUESTIONABLE FOR SOUTHERN NH AND COASTAL ME WHERE RAIN OR A MIXED
GOING OVER TO SNOW A POSSIBILITY. ELSEWHERE MOST LIKELY ALL SNOW.
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THIS EVENT BUT INCREASING CHANCES OF A
SIGNIFICANT EVENT FOR OUR FORECAST AREA.

AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE MARITIMES A STRONG COLD NW FLOW FOLLOWS
WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO MINUS 15 TO MINUS 20 C
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES LIKELY WON`T RISE MUCH
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AND WILL DROP TO VERY COLD LEVELS
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE COLD AIR MASS EXITS TO THE E QUICKLY AS
TEMPERATURES MODIFY ON FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BRINGS A
SURFACE LOW E THRU THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A LEADING WARM
FRONT APPROACHING THE NE. THIS WILL BRING CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT
PRECIP TO THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD
FRONT FOLLOWS AS THE LOW MOVES THRU NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY
WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE OF PRECIP. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER
FOLLOWS FOR SUNDAY ON NW SURFACE FLOW THOUGH AN UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF
LOW TO THE NW AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL LIKELY SPELL SOME
CLOUDS AND -SHSN AT LEAST FOR THE N/MT ZONES.
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&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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SHORT TERM...ANY WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY
THIS EVENING. SOME MVFR CEILINGS AND A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW WILL
BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN AREAS. SHOULD SEE
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SHOT OF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR POSSIBLE
IN -SHSN ACTIVITY EARLY TUESDAY MAINLY OVER MORE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN AREAS. WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
EARLY THURSDAY FROM DEEPENING COASTAL LOW.
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&&

.MARINE...
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SHORT TERM...STILL SEEING SOME WAVE HEIGHTS ABOVE 5 FEET AS A
RESULT OF SWELL FROM OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE. THIS WILL SUBSIDE
THROUGH THE EVENING AND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE ABLE TO
END TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA
LEVELS TUESDAY THRU WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS VERY LIKELY
TO REACH SCA LEVELS WITH GALES POSSIBLE FROM LATE WEDNESDAY THRU
THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT FROM INTENSIFYING COASTAL
LOW.
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&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM... KIMBLE
SHORT TERM... KIMBLE