Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 261911 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 311 PM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TUESDAY BEFORE LIFTING NORTH ON WEDNESDAY AND DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH NEW ENGLAND...BRINGING COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY THURSDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY/...
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SHOWERS NOW MAKING THEIR WAY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND HAVE HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THIS REGION FOR A COUPLE HOURS. HAVE RECEIVED A REPORT OF SOME SMALL GRAUPEL WITH THE CONVECTION OVER CUMBERLAND COUNTY SO THIS IS POSSIBLE WITH LOW FREEZING LEVELS...HOWEVER HAVE REMOVED ISOLATED THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THIS HAS NOT COME TO FRUITION. SHOWERS AND CLOUDS AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE 30S. SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER PEAKS. OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S AND HELPING TO POSSIBLE FORM SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY TOWARDS MORNING.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
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NW UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES INTO TOMORROW MID MORNING AS ENOUGH MOISTURE STICKS AROUND FOR A FEW MORE FLURRIES IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SHOWERS AND CLOUDS DISSIPATE HOWEVER SUNSHINE WONT MAKE IT SEEM MUCH WARMER AS A BRISK NW WIND MAKES FOR A GUSTIER DAY THAN TODAY. HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 40S AND MID 50S. A WEAK SHORT WAVE ON THE BACK OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH WILL KEEP ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS OVER SOMERSET COUNTY THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES OUR AREA DAYBREAK TUESDAY AS THE NEXT WARM FRONT/LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT...AND DEPENDING ON TIMING...WE COULD SEE COME VERY COLD TEMPERATURES FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH A RIDGE CRESTING OVER THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 60S SOUTH AS THE SOUTHERLY FLOW SETS UP.... THIS WILL BE THE LAST OF THE WARM WEATHER FOR A WHILE AS A TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY AND DEEPENS ALLOWING COLDER AIR TO FIRMLY SETTLE IN BY THE END OF THE WEEK. TUESDAY BEGINS AS A NICE DAY... BY AFTERNOON THE RIDGE SHIFTS OFF SHORE AND THE FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A CYCLONE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE OCEAN... WHICH REMAINS 55 DEGREES... WILL RESULT IN THE ONSET OF DRIZZLE AND FOG OVERNIGHT IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. THE MARITIME AIR WONT MAKE IT OVER THE MOUNTAINS... WHERE THE NORTHWEST OF THE CWA WILL GET FEWER CLOUDS. WEDNESDAY THE MAIN SURFACE CYCLONE WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH IN QUEBEC...ALLOWING THE WARM AIR TO MOVE IN BRINGING TEMPERATURES TO THE 60S AGAIN ALONG THE COAST. A TROUGH WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON... STILL SOME SPREAD ON THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE... WHICH VARIES FROM EARLY MORNING TO LATE AFTERNOON. REGARDLESS BY NIGHT FALL WE WILL BE WELL INTO POST- FRONTAL NWLY FLOW AS THE TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO PLUMMET. THURSDAY WILL BE A TYPICAL POST-FRONTAL DAY... WITH UPSLOPE FLOW GENERATING CLOUDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND MAYBE A FLURRY OR TWO AND A BRISK WIND THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAIN. DESPITE RIDGING MOVING IN ON THURSDAY NIGHT... THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE EAST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA...AND WITH 850 TEMPS AT -5C EVEN THE COAST WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE 50S... WITH SUNSET TEMPS IN THE 40S FOR HALLOWEEN NIGHT. FRIDAY BRINGS A STRENGTHENING OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH... PUSHING YET COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION. AT THIS LONG A TIME FRAME... MODELS DIVERGE IN THE RESULTS OF THE COLD AIR. IN ONE SCENARIO A SURFACE SYSTEM DEVELOPS IN THE GREAT LAKES AND INTENSIFIES AS IT SWINGS AROUND THE TROUGH AXIS... BRINGING WHAT COULD VERY WELL BE THE FIRST SNOW FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THE INTERIOR... WHILE A DIFFERENT SOLUTION PUSHES THE COLD AIR FURTHER SOUTH... KEEPING ANY DEVELOPING STORM FAR OUT TO SEA. FOR THE MOMENT HAVE GONE WITH A BROAD BRUSH CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE WEEKEND AS WE WAIT TO SEE WHAT DEVELOPS.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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SHORT TERM...CURRENTLY WE HAVE GUSTY NW WINDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND VFR CEILINGS PREVAILING. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUDY OVERNIGHT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WHILE DOWNSTREAM CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THIN OUT. THIS MAY RESULT IN PATCHY FOG WITH KLEB THE MOST LIKELY CULPRIT. LONG TERM... TUESDAY WILL BEGIN AS VFR CONDITIONS... BEFORE DETERIORATING TO IFR ALONG THE COAST AS ONSHORE FLOW PUSHES IN LOW CEILINGS. WEDNESDAY THE FRONT WILL PUSH OUT THE MOISTURE RETURNING EVERYWHERE TO VFR EXCEPT LINGERING MVFR CONDITIONS IN UPSLOPE FLOW MAY CONTINUE TO THE NORTH OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THURSDAY.
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&& .MARINE...
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SHORT TERM...COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE WATERS NEAR DAWN...WITH COLD ADVECTION MIXING 25 KT GUSTS TO THE SURFACE. SCA CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY TO LAST THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE WATERS TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY GUST TO NEAR SCA CRITERIA AS CAA DOMINATES OVER THE WATERS.
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&& .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...CURTIS NEAR TERM...HANES SHORT TERM...HANES LONG TERM...CURTIS AVIATION...CURTIS/HANES MARINE...CURTIS/HANES

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