-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KGYX 061427
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
930 AM EST THU MAR 6 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY...BEFORE
MOVING EAST ON FRIDAY.  A WEAK COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH
OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER CONTINUING. A WEAK AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS NEW ENGLAND EARLY ON MONDAY...FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM ON TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS BY TO
OUR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
930 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. CLEAR
AND COLD!

PREVIOUSLY...

UPDATE...MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPS...DEWPOINTS...AND WINDS BASED ON
CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN EARLY THIS
MORNING...SOME GRADIENT REMAINS NEAR THE COAST. THIS IS KEEPING
TEMPS A LITTLE WARMER THAN GUIDANCE. NRN VALLEYS HAVE DECOUPLED
AND SHOULD FALL TO AROUND 20 BELOW BY SUNRISE.

CLEAR AND CALM EXPECTED TODAY UNDER HIGH PRES. LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF MIXING WILL KEEP TEMPS ON THE WELL BELOW NORMAL SIDE OF THINGS
YET AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRES SHOULD BE MORE OR LESS CENTERED OVER THE CWFA BY
TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW A RAPID DECOUPLING AND QUICKLY FALLING
TEMPS AFTER DARK. HAVE GONE BELOW GUIDANCE MINS...AND ALSO SPED UP
DIURNAL CURVE A LITTLE FOR INITIAL TEMP DROP.

BY FRI...RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EWD AND RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP.
PLENTY OF SNOWPACK AND A COLD GULF OF ME WILL ENSURE THAT THIS
ISN/T THE MILDEST OF SLY FLOWS. TEMPS WILL APPROACH FREEZING...BUT
AM NOT EXPECTING READINGS MUCH ABOVE THAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ALL MODELS FROM THE 00Z MODEL SUITE CONTINUE TO SHOW AN ORGANIZED
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING WELL OFFSHORE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST
FRIDAY NIGHT. CONTINUE TO SHOW A MODEST TREND WITH TEMPERATURES
BELOW NORMAL WITH A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS FOR FRIDAY NIGHTS
OVERNIGHT LOW.

A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT
CROSSES THE REGION SATURDAY...ALLOWING FOR A SURFACE RIDGE TO
CREST OVER THE REGION SUNDAY.

BY MONDAY...STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AT THE JET STREAM LEVEL
WILL ALLOW SYSTEMS TO RAPIDLY CROSS NEW ENGLAND. THE FIRST SYSTEM
WILL BE WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED...WITH A SECOND IMPULSE IN THE
FAST FLOW AS MOISTURE STARVED AS THE FIRST...AND ARRIVING ON
TUESDAY.

THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR LOW PRESSURE EXITING THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES OF TUESDAY. STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE TRACK
AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT WITH GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC
MOISTURE...THIS SHOULD BE A RELATIVELY SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER
SYSTEM FOR PARTS OF THE EAST COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU FRI.

LONG TERM...CONDITIONS MAINLY VFR WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS WILL CONTINUE JUST BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THIS
MORNING...BEFORE RELAXING THIS AFTERNOON. THE 10-15 KTS OF WIND
WILL CONTINUE MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY INTO MIDDAY...AND ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT.

LONG TERM...SCA TYPE WINDS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT IN A NORTHWEST
FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE...MLE