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000
FXUS61 KGYX 040531
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1231 AM EST WED DEC 4 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL OFFSHORE AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST TONIGHT.
BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR EARLY WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES NORTH OF OUR REGION ON THURSDAY WITH AN
OCCLUDED FRONT CROSSING NEW ENGLAND. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL THEN SLOWLY BUILD TOWARDS THE EAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED GRIDDED PACKAGE BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY. TEMPS HAVE DROPPED BELOW GUIDANCE AND FORECAST
MINS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALREADY IN SOME LOCATIONS. HAVE
LOWERED TEMPS BASED ON THIS TREND.

PREV DISC...
LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE IS MOVING A BIT FASTER THAN MODELS
INDICATED...WITH DRY AIR FILTERING INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
BEHIND IT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS OVERHEAD NOW AND EXPECT
DRIER AIR TO CONTINUE TO HELP CLEAR CLOUDS OUT TONIGHT. FAR
NORTHERN SECTIONS WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPSLOPE
FLOW...SO THAT AREA WILL STAY CLOUDY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 20S NORTH TO
UPPER 20S SOUTH...WITH THE COLDER AIR BECOMING BOTTLED UP IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
WITH STRONG LOW PRESSURE ON EITHER SIDE AND HIGHS TO THE NORTH
AND SOUTH...NEW ENGLAND WILL BE IN A COL SITUATION WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND SUNNY SKIES FOR MUCH OF TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES WARM INTO
THE MID 30S NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH. AMPLE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT DON`T START IN EARNEST UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE
GREAT LAKES LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NNE IN RESPONSE TO THE BREAK DOWN
OF A DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING HIGH.

USED A NON-DIURNAL TREND WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...WITH MINIMUMS OCCURRING EARLY IN THE NIGHT
BEFORE A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE AREA. ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
HIGHER SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES SPREAD ACROSS NH AND MAINE BY MORNING.
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL EITHER BE RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN AS THE
WARMER LAYER ARRIVES ALOFT. BEFORE DAYBREAK HOWEVER...POP/QPF
AMOUNTS DO NOT PRODUCE MORE THAN PERHAPS A TRACE OF ICE IN
NORTHERN COOS...OXFORD...AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH ON
THURSDAY. EXPECT AN ONSHORE FLOW TO PROVIDE SOME LIGHT RAIN TO
MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT PUSHES
INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
IN NORTHERN AREAS BEFORE TEMPERATURES WARM UP ON THURSDAY.

THE COLD FRONT GETS STUCK JUST OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT... WITH
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT.
COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN NEAR THE COAST AND SNOW INLAND AS
THIS PASSES BY THROUGH FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
FAIRLY LIGHT.

REINFORCING SURGE PUSHES THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY
WITH COLDER AIR MOVING IN FOR SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY STAY BELOW FREEZING SUNDAY AREAWIDE. WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL... EXPECT ABOUT A 36 HOUR BREAK FROM PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. BUT MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN BRINGING ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE INTO THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY... WITH PRECIPITATION
SPREADING INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS EARLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT. AT
THIS TIME THE TRACK OF THE LOW WOULD FAVOR MORE SNOW THAN RAIN...
BUT IT IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST
PRECIPITATION TYPE LOW... THOUGH PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IN
GENERAL IS HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...BESIDES KHIE AND KRKD...ALL TERMINALS ARE CURRENTLY
VFR AS OF 19Z. KRKD WILL IMPROVE BY TONIGHT WHILE KHIE...WHICH HAS
AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION...IMPROVES
MORE GRADUALLY BEFORE DENSE LIFR FOG/CEILINGS DEVELOP AGAIN
OVERNIGHT. ALL TERMINALS WILL BE VFR TOMORROW WITH LIGHT WINDS.

LONG TERM...EXPECT ONSHORE FLOW TO BRING LOW CLOUDS... RAIN... AND
POSSIBLY FOG ON THURSDAY. EXPECT IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS WHILE
THIS OCCURS. CONDITIONS MAY NOT IMPROVE TO VFR UNTIL SATURDAY WHEN
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST BEGINS ASSERTING ITSELF MORE OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SMALL CRAFT CONTINUES THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING AS
STRONG LOW PRESSURE STAYS OFFSHORE. MAIN CONCERN SEEMS TO BE SEAS
RATHER THAN WIND GUSTS AT THE MOMENT...BUT WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT AS COLDER AIR REACHES THE WATERS OVERNIGHT.

LONG TERM...SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A FRONT COULD BRING BRIEF
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ON THURSDAY. THEN LATE ON SATURDAY A SURGE OF
COLDER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE STRONGER WIND GUSTS
LIKELY REACHING ADVISORY LEVELS INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ150-
     152-154.
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&&

$$