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FXUS61 KGYX 181329
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
929 AM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will hold over the region today through tonight as
Jose approaches from the south. Jose will meander southeast of
Long Island Tuesday through Friday and will gradually die out
over the weekend as high pressure remains in control over the
northeast.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
930 AM Update...
Have updated forecast based on latest conditions. Dense fog
continues to slowly lift across the forecast area, however it
will take a few more hours to lift near the shoreline. Have
adjusted the coastal waters to hold onto the fog throughout the
day. Made adjustments to cloud forecast, temperatures and dew
points for this afternoon.

700 AM Update...
Fog and ocean stratus hanging tough across southern Maine and
New Hampshire this morning. A dense fog advisory remains in
effect until 900 AM. Expect fog to lift over the next couple of
hours but may take until early afternoon to poke holes in the
overcast mainly in southern interior sections. Stratus may be
around for much of the day in coastal locations as moist onshore
flow continues. Have adjusted temp/td/rh grids based on current
obs. No other changes planned attm.


Prev Disc...
High pressure will remain nosed in from the east over the region
today with a moist onshore flow continuing. Ocean stratus has
overspread much of south and central Maine as well as southeast
New Hampshire early this morning. Dense fog has once again
formed in the coastal plain and portions of southern interior
Maine and New Hampshire. Expect fog to gradually lift through
the morning hours. Ocean stratus will gradually erode from
north to south through the early afternoon hours but may hang
tough in the coastal plain for much of the day. High
temperatures will reflect this pattern with coastal and southern
interior sections only getting into the mid 60s to near 70.
Warmest readings will be found in the mountains and connecticut
Valley where highs will top out in the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Ocean stratus will flood northward again this evening and fog
will once again develop in coastal and southern interior
sections overnight. As Jose approaches from the south will see a
chance of showers pushing in from the south after midnight with
highest pops by Tuesday morning in southern and coastal areas.
Lows will range from the lower to mid 50s in the north to the
mid 50s to near 60 south.

Tuesday looking mostly cloudy with occasional rain in the the
south and mostly cloudy skies with scattered showers in the
north. Most areas downwind of the mountains will only see highs
in the mid to upper 60s. Warmest temps will once again be seen
in far northwest zones with highs reaching the lower to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The main area of concern in the long term forecast is the track
of Jose and how far north its effects will be expected in
Northern New England. At the moment, there are tropical storm
watches up to the south in Boston`s forecast area.

The baseline of the long term forecast is started with
SuperBlend and then adjusted towards GFS/SREF in the first 48
hours to match neighboring office that have more of an effect
from Jose. Overall confidence is average...but there is still
uncertainty when it comes to tropical system forecasts.

Based on current model guidance and NHC...Jose is still
expected to track south of our area. This will allow for some
much needed rain along coastal regions with the highest amounts
in Southeast NH and over the islands and marine zones. At the
moment...we could see around 2 inches in Southeast NH over 2 day
period. Due to the slower track as noted before, rainfall may
not begin to the afternoon or evening of Tuesday. We do expect
hazardous seas and winds in the Gulf of Maine and will not rule
out isolated tropical storm wind gusts along the coast in
Southeast NH.

Due to the winds, waves, and tides expected during Jose`s
presence in Southern New England waters, the potential for beach
erosion and minor coastal flooding are possible. This is
further discussed below in the Tides/Coastal Flooding Section.

On Tuesday evening...Jose is expected to still be classified as
a Hurricane in the Atlantic well offshore of New Jersey area.
Being a tropical system, effects can be felt at great distances.
By Wednesday morning...it should be southeast of Cape Cod and
be classified as a tropical storm. The ridge of high pressure
over our area will help keep the track south of our region and
have it spin out to the southeast before going southwest on
Friday morning.

The current models and NHC projections will allow seas to start
to build on Tuesday and rain to overspread the coastal areas
and decreasing rapidly north of Portland. Rain will diminish on
Wednesday afternoon to early evening.

Upper level ridge will dominate our region from Thursday
through the weekend. Climate outlook and teleconnections
continue to suggest above normal temperatures through the rest
of September and potential of above normal precipitation. Based
on over all pattern...most of the precipitation will come from
the active tropical systems in the southern Atlantic.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Short Term...IFR/LIFR ceilings and vsby in southern and coastal
zones this morning...giving way to MVFR/IFR conditions this
afternoon. IFR/LIFR ceilings and vsby redeveloping tonight and
persisting into Tuesday.

Long Term...IFR/LIFR ceilings overspread much of coastal and
southern interior zones Tuesday night and will persist into
Wednesday early afternoon. Conditions will begin to improve
around late Wedensday. VFR conditions expected Thursday and
Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Onshore flow will gradually increase tonight
through Tuesday as Jose approaches from the south. Sca`s will
likely be needed by Tuesday Evening. Expect seas to build to 4
to 7 feet by the end of the day Tuesday.

Long Term...Areas of dense fog through tonight.

Long period swells will approach the coast beginning late
Tuesday as Jose moves northeast of Long Island. Northeast winds
will increase Tuesday night into Wednesday as well, when
tropical storm conditions are possible.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Hurricane Jose is forecast to cross the southern New England
waters on Wednesday. This will result in long period swell.
Matrices suggest there will be increased risk for beach erosion
and splash-over during this period. For now, the storm surge
guidance (ESTOFS) is only indicating about a half foot to one
foot of storm surge. Highest storm surge is right near the MA
border. Tides are around 10.5 or higher and with the
combination of Jose, there is potential for minor coastal
flooding.

Dangerous rip currents are also possible and high surf
advisories may be needed during Tuesday evening through
Wednesday.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
JC