Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 161733 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 133 PM EDT Sat Sep 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure builds into the region through the weekend through early next, however moist conditions will continue with fog expected each night and morning. Tropical system Jose will approach the northeast by mid week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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1pm.. minor update to further pull back the fog which has eroded in all but the coastal waters. 9am update... Have allowed the dense fog advisory to expire at 9am as scheduled. Satellite data shows holes starting to develop as the fog erodes. Sounding data from KGYX this am shows around 1000ft of moisture so expect the fog to lift fairly quickly in the next hour or two as the sun works its way in. A few isolated valleys may hold onto the fog even through the day potentially but without widespread low visibilities will go without an advisory. 655 AM Update... Minor changes to the forecast this morning for cloud cover and temperatures. Previous discussion... Dense fog advisory remains in place through 9 AM. Expect a longer period for some areas to lift out of the fog today and have left patchy fog in some areas through noon. Temperatures should warm into the upper 70s to lower 80s regardless. Skies will remain cloudy near the coast were a surface trough is in place despite high pressure building in from the west. A sprinkle will be possible in this area as well.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... Subsidence inversion strengthens again tonight with moisture still pooling offshore. Very little change in humidity values and expect another night of widespread fog and some stratus with drizzle possible along the coast. Overnight lows will drop into the 50s areawide with lower 60s possible over southern NH. Ridging builds in farther on Sunday as moisture from Jose nears from the south. Skies will become sunny from west to east under increasing subsidence from the high pressure once fog dissipates. Expect another day of 70s and 80s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... The week begins with an upper level ridge through the northeast united states, and a strong blocking high downstream of Iceland in the Atlantic. South of the ridge, Hurricane Jose will try to push northwards around a Bermuda high. At the surface high pressure which had been in control all weekend begins to erode on Monday, with low clouds developing in onshore flow through the day on Monday. Tuesday night into Wednesday Hurricane Jose will approach the 70W/40N benchmark. While there is fairly good agreement at this northward trend amongst guidance by Wednesday we see a spread more typical of a winter nor`easter with both inside and outside the benchmark solutions possible. While Marine impacts are quite likely (see Marine below), the impacts on land are less certain. Sea Surface Temperatures in the Gulf of Maine remain in the mid 60s, which is fairly warm for the region but far below the 80F temperatures needed to sustain a Hurricane, thus expect Jose to be rapidly decaying or undergoing extra tropical transition during the time it may impact Maine. Some rain and gusty winds are possible on the coast through Wednesday. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Short Term... Widespread LIFR/IFR fog is in place this morning and will dissipate slowly this morning. VFR conditions will develop with a sea breeze expected at PWM and RKD and light and variable winds elsewhere. Tonight expect more widespread dense fog and LIFR conditions with drizzle also possible along the coast. Long Term...High pressure holds through next week resulting in VFR conditions through early next week. Ceilings and visibilities may lower in showers as Jose approaches off the coast. && .MARINE... Short Term...Quiet conditions over the waters and high pressure builds in for the weekend. Waves attempt to build to 4-5 ft in the eastern waters Sunday afternoon and evening, but at this time they appear temporally and spatially transient. Long Term...Seas and winds will remain below SCA thresholds. However, building long period swells will approach the coast next week as Jose moves northeast off the coast. Marine areas will see impacts regardless of track with high swell and Gale conditions likely on the waters. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... There is a moderate risk of rip currents today for area beaches except for Waldo County. Hurricane Jose will pass east of the region on Tuesday night into Wednesday. This will resulting Long period swell, onshore flow and an increased risk of coastal flooding through midweek. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...Cempa SHORT TERM...Hanes LONG TERM...Curtis/Sinsabaugh AVIATION... MARINE... TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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