Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 291036 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 637 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY TODAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA IN ITS WAKE AND HOLD FIRM UNTIL A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION LATE WEEK OR THIS WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... 630 AM UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST. ADJUSTED TEMPS AND SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. BACK DOOR COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO WORK SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO OUR NECK OF THE WOODS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. AS OF 06Z...WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION SHIFTING THE WINDS TO NORTH. AT THIS TIME THE FRONT ISN/T ASSOCIATED WITH ANY LOW CLOUDS OR PRECIPITATION...JUST THE WIND SHIFT. THE MAIN PUSH OF MUCH COOLER AIR LOOKS TO ARRIVE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BEFORE THAT OCCURS...MOST AREAS SHOULD BE ABLE TO HEAT UP MODESTLY...WITH HIGHS REACHING 70 DEGREES IN MANY AREAS EXCEPT THE FAR NORTH WHERE COOLER AIR WILL WORK IN EARLIER. ACROSS SOUTHERNMOST ZONES...ESPECIALLY SWRN NH...TEMPERATURES MAY WORK THEIR WAY UP TO AROUND 80 DEGREES BY EARLY AFTERNOON. A NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON FROM NE TO SW AS THE REAL PUSH OF COOLER AND MORE DENSE AIR OCCURS. TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S MIDDAY WILL QUICKLY BE REPLACED BY 50S BY LATE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH INCREASING LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SOME SHOWERS AND/OR DRIZZLE. THE FRONT IS QUITE SHALLOW SO DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL NOT BE PRESENT. THEREFORE...WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER...DRIZZLE AND FOG COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO INCREASE BY EARLY EVENING. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A BURST OF GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST...WITH THE MAIN PUSH OF COOL AIR. A FEW GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR A BRIEF TIME THIS AFTERNOON. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... CLOUDS...DRIZZLE...AND FOG WILL BE THE MAIN THEME TONIGHT WITH CONTINUING NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. LOWS SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 40S AND 50S. NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR TUESDAY AS MOIST NORTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING HIGH RH VALUES IN THE LOWEST 5 KFT OR SO. THEREFORE...NOT MUCH IF ANY SUN IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY WHICH SHOULD KEEP MOST AREAS IN THE 50S. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE SOUTHERNMOST ZONES AS WELL AS THE CT RIVER VALLEY WHERE SOME PEEKS OF SUN MAY BOOST TEMPERATURES AS HIGH AS THE MID 60S FOR A TIME. WHILE THE DAY IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY DRY...A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME. MORNING FOG AND DRIZZLE IS LIKELY TO BE PRESENT AS WELL. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED A CLOSED LOW PRES NEARLY CUT OFF FROM THE FLOW WILL DRIFT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WED. FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BE WEAK AND FAIRLY DISORGANIZED...HOWEVER THE COLD POCKET ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR CLOUD COVER AND A THREAT OF A SHOWER. EVENTUALLY AT LEAST BRIEF SFC RIDGING WILL CONTROL THE AREA THU INTO FRI. NEXT SYSTEM OF INTEREST WILL BE DROPPING OUT OF NWRN CANADA LATE IN THE WEEK. S/WV TROF WILL HELP TO CARVE OUT A LARGER...MERIDIONAL ERN TROF WITH DEEP SLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT. ATTM MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS TIME RANGE. A NARROW AREA OF FORCING WILL CROSS THE REGION SOMETIME SAT INTO SUN...WITH SEASONABLY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT. SEE NO REASON AT THIS POINT TO DIVERGE FROM THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS POP. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHORT TERM...IFR IN PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY. THEREAFTER...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST WILL BRING IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG/DRIZZLE/STRATUS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY WHERE IFR/LIFR LIKELY. LONG TERM...UPPER LOW PRES MEANDERING NEARBY COULD BRING LINGERING MVFR CIGS TO COASTAL TERMINALS WED. EVENTUALLY HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. AN APPROACHING COLD FNT SAT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE MARKEDLY WITH PASSAGE OF BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MIDDAY. GUSTS UP TO 30 KT WILL BE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ALONG WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO AROUND 8 FT. CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK. DEVELOPING LONG DURATION SLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SEAS TO NEAR OR ABOVE 5 FT BY SAT. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154. && $$ NEAR TERM...EKSTER SHORT TERM...EKSTER LONG TERM...LEGRO

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