Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 180042 AAB AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 842 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND WILL CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SET UP BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND WILL REDEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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UPDATE...A FEW TWEAKS TO TEMP GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR EXPECTED RADIATIONAL COOLING BEFORE CLOUD COVER WORKS BACK INTO THE AREA. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SHORT BREAK IN THE ACTION OVERNIGHT AS ONE FRONT PUSHES EAST AND ANOTHER APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WILL SEE VARIABLE CLOUDS WITH AREAS OF FOG BEFORE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT PUSH IN AFTER MIDNIGHT. FLOW WILL TURN ONSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT AND OCEAN STRATUS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S NORTH TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S SOUTH.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT/... UPDATE...POTENT S/WV TROF SWINGING THRU THE GREAT LAKES ATTM WILL DRIVE A COLD FNT THRU NRN NEW ENGLAND SAT. HAVE BLENDED SOME OF THE HI-RES GUIDANCE...INCLUDING WRF ARW...TO SHARPEN THE TIMING OF POP THRU THE AREA. EXPECTING A NARROW AREA OF FORCING...LIKELY A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS...TO CROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOCUSED LIKELY POP DURING THIS TIME...AS WELL AS IN THE MTNS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... SATURDAY LOOKING MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY. EXPECT PRECIP TO PUSH IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MID 60S. UPPER TROUGH SWINGING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PUMP IN SOME OF THE COLDEST TEMPS OF THE SEASON. WINDS AND CLOUDS WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING AS FAR THEY MIGHT WITH READINGS BOTTOMING IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 40S SOUTH. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH A POTENT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT EXITING THE COAST. WE`LL SEE INSTABILITY CLOUDS WITH THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG WITH SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE UNSETTLED WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BY TO OUR SOUTH. SUNDAY NIGHT COULD BE THE COLDEST NIGHT THIS FALL...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 20S...WITH SOME TEENS FOR THE NORMALLY COLDER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS BY TUESDAY...AS THE NEXT IMPULSE DIVES SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND CARVES OUT AN UPPER LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS LOW THEN MEANDERS NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND BEFORE BEING KICKED OUT INTO THE MARITIMES BY NEXT WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SHORT TERM...AREAS OF IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VSBY DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT. AREAS OF MFR/IFR CEILINGS ON SATURDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR SATURDAY NIGHT. LONG TERM... SUN...SCT MVFR PSBL IN RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. NW SFC WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KT. TUE NIGHT - WED...AREAS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...CONTINUING SCA`S THROUGH SATURDAY. LONG TERM... SUN - MON...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE LIKELY. GUSTS TO NR GALE PSBL OUTSIDE THE BAYS SUN PM. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ150-152- 154. && $$ NEAR TERM...LEGRO

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