Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 250321 AAC AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Gray ME 1121 PM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A series of upper level disturbances will cross the area Sunday into early next week weekend into early next week bringing us the chance of showers or thunderstorms, especially in the mountains. Otherwise temperatures will be near normal with lower humidity into mid week. Warmer and more humid conditions move in at the end of the week, with a chance of showers and thunderstorms by Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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Update...With shower activity decreasing quickly...will speed up the PoP drop off. Will have to keep an eye on decaying showers over VT to see if any can sneak into Coos County before drying up. Previous discussion...A short wave trough will exit the northern areas this evening with any stray showers diminishing over the mountains of Maine. Otherwise, a very quiet overnight period is expected tonight as drier air continues to enter the region on westerly winds. This will allow dew points to drop from around 70 degrees earlier in the day to the much more comfortable 50s. This will allow for much cooler temperatures during the overnight hours when compared to a muggy night last night.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Yet another short wave trough will approach New England on Sunday. Clouds will be on the increase during the day as Cu builds, mainly over northern areas. Scattered showers will be triggered as the atmosphere becomes unstable. A few thunderstorms are possible as well, mainly during the afternoon and early evening hours. There will be some cooling aloft. Afternoon high temperatures will be in the 70s north and Midcoast region to the lower 80s across the southern interior. Highest pops will be in the north with lowest along the coast. These showers will continue through the first half of the night over the northern/mountain regions, closest to the best dynamics of the exiting trough. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... 500 mb pattern across NOAM continues to remain quite changeable and unstable while blocking hold well to the east over Europe and well to to the west over the Pacific. This continue to make forecasting beyond three or four days more challenging than it usually already is. Overall the models are in better for the early to mid week period as a 500 mb trough deepens to our west, and extends far enough equatorward that is should cut off the return of warm humid air for a few days. The bad news is that several waves move through the trough and will bring a threat of threat of showers, and maybe some thunder, to the area Mon and Tuesday, especially in the mountains. Highs will generally run in the 70s across the entire area, and with more W flow, it will be warmest along the coast and in southern NH, where highs could reach around 80, and coolest in the mountains which will be closer to 70. By Thu we will see ridging building again over the wrn Atlantic and a return of very warm and more humid conditions. Highs will be in the 80s most places, with a run at 90 possible in those warmer areas. S-SW flow will make it cooler on the coast. Could see several rounds showers and thunderstorms in the Thu night to Saturday period, as waves move through the WSW flow over the top of the ridge, perhaps in MCS like fashion. Latest 12Z Euro carves out a deeper trough that would move through Sunday. && .AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Short Term... Pockets of MVFR conditions are occurring this morning in lower ceilings/-SHRA and the occasional -TSRA associated with a cold frontal passage. TS Cindy is also contributing to the moist airmass. Fog has yet to affect RKD but is expected to affect them briefly. Most of the dense fog is expected to remain over eastern Maine and offshore this morning. Conditions improve to VFR as drier air works in today on developing gusty westerly winds. Winds diminish after sunset. Long Term...Mainly VFR Monday through Thu, but temp0 flight restrictions in SHRA/TSRA will be possible most afternoons, especially at KHIE/KLEB. && .MARINE... Short Term...Seas continue to diminish...so SCA has been cancelled. Long Term...Expect a light W-SW flow over the waters through the middle of the week, before flow shifts more S-SW late in the week and increases. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... The highest astronomical tide of the month will occur tonight. The total tide will likely come in just above 12 feet despite a westerly flow over the waters. Very minor coastal flooding is possible along the most vulnerable low lying side streets near the wharfs in Portland, as well as Granite Point road in Biddeford and the Backbay area of Hampton, New Hampshire. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Legro

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