Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 281349 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 949 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY BRINGING A GOOD SOAKING RAIN AND SOME GUSTY WINDS TO THE AREA. THE LOW WILL MOVE AWAY ON MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE NORTHEAST. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE MAY ONCE AGAIN AFFECT NEW ENGLAND NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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945 AM UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. AT THIS TIME RAIN WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REGION WITH BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN ROTATING NORTH. ALL HEADLINES REMAIN IN TACT AS IS. 7 AM UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST. RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...HAS OVERSPREAD THE CWA THIS MORNING. WINDS ARE ALSO INCREASING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS WELL. THEREFORE...THE FORECAST AND HEADLINES REMAIN ON TRACK. PREVIOUSLY... LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AS OF 07Z WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE TODAY. STRONG EASTERLY INFLOW JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL TRANSPORT PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION TODAY RESULTING IN RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...PARTICULARLY THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. HAVE RETAINED THE FLOOD WATCHES FOR THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AS MOIST UPSLOPE SHOULD WRING OUT 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL. OTHERWISE...A 1 TO 2 INCH RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. OUTSIDE OF THE FLOOD WATCH AREA...SOME MINOR URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING SHOULD OCCUR BUT THE CURRENT SPEED OF THE SYSTEM DOESN/T WARRANT AN EXPANSION OF THE FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING...PARTICULARLY ON THE COAST WHERE PEAK GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THERE FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR DOWNED TREE BRANCHES AND RESULTANT POWER OUTAGES. THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT AS WELL FOR LARGE BREAKERS AT THE BEACH. RIP CURRENTS SHOULD BE STRONG. THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS THE MOIST CONVEYOR BELT AND MID LEVEL FORCING MECHANISM ADVANCES NORTHWARD. STILL...SHOWERS AND WIDESPREAD DRIZZLE CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE EARLY ON TONIGHT SHOULD GIVE WAY TO DRYING CONDITIONS AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE THE MOUNTAINS WHERE MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO CONTINUING SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WEAKENS AND MOVES SLOWLY INTO QUEBEC MONDAY. WHILE WE CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM TIME TO TIME...WE SHOULD DRY OUT. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. THE UPPER TROUGH INITIALLY FOUND ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN...WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND NEARLY ZONAL FLOW BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH WEAK RIDING ON TUESDAY. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE BRINGS LOW PRESSURE AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT TO THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE THEN TRACKS TO OUR SOUTH LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. && .AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SHORT TERM...IFR OR LOWER IN RAIN EXPECTED TODAY WITH SFC WINDS GUSTING TO 35 KT AT COASTAL TERMINALS TODAY. IMPROVEMENT IS FORESEEN TONIGHT AND MONDAY WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LONG TERM... WED...AREAS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS. FRI NIGHT - SAT...SCT MVFR IN SHOWERS. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...AN ANOMALOUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY...WITH STRONG EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING AND PEAKING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. GALES IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS...WITH A HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR ALL COASTAL ZONES...INTO SUNDAY EVENING. SUBSIDING WIND AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY. LONG TERM... WED...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MEZ023>028. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ023>028. NH...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NHZ014. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NHZ014. FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NHZ001>005. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150>154.
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