Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 041328 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 928 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH TODAY AND COULD BRING A STRAY SHOWER TO THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE TODAY. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER AND GRADUALLY WARMING CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK. ANOTHER PASSING TROUGH WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN MIDWEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 920 AM...SOME FINE TUNING OF POPS/SKY THRU TODAY AS WE GET SOME OVERRUNNING FROM DEVELOPING SFC LOW S OF NEW ENGLAND. GIVEN VERY DRY LOW LEVELS...EXPECTING ANY SHRA THAT MAKE INTO CWA TO BE LIGHT /OR JUST SPRINKLES/ AS THEY FALL FROM MID-DECK...MAINLY S AND W OF A LINE FROM KHIE-KCON-KPSM. ANY PRECIP WILL BE WINDING DOWN BETWEEN 21Z AND SUNSET. MOST OF THE CWA WILL SEE MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN AS WELL...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SUNNY BREAKS IN MOST SPOTS. EXPECT THE THE MOST SUN WILL BE IN INTERIOR WRN AND CENTRAL ME. 640 AM...BASED ON SHORT TERM MODEL TRENDS AND CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC...I ADJUSTED 1ST PERIOD POPS UPWARD OVER WESTERN AND SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. 1ST PERIOD GRIDS WERE ALSO ADJUSTED TO REFLECT THE LATEST MESONET VALUES FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE. PREV DISC... AT 06Z...HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND. A 1010 MILLIBAR LOW WAS VICINITY OF THE DELMARVA. FOR TODAY...CLOUDS SPREAD NORTH AND EAST WITH APPROACH OF UPPER TROUGH WITH SURFACE LOW PASSING OFFSHORE TO OUR SOUTH. ALONG WITH THE CLOUDS...A FEW SHOWERS MAY MAKE A RUN AT THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE TODAY. OTHERWISE...WE SHOULD REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE HOLIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 70S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... A SURFACE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST TONIGHT THEN CROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. CAN`T RULE OUT SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE OVERNIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL RANGE FROM THE 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 80F ELSEWHERE. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST AND IS REPLACED BY AN UPPER RIDGE. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL DISSIPATE OR MOVE EAST IN THE EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING ALOFT AND EVENTUALLY AT THE SURFACE AS WELL. ON MONDAY THERE SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD 80S AND EVEN POTENTIALLY A FEW 90S. A SEA BREEZE WILL BE LIKELY AT THE COAST AND WOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT THERE. UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST ON TUESDAY WITH AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WARM WEATHER CONTINUES BUT A SOUTHERLY ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD LIMIT TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT OVER MUCH OF MAINE AND INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST MAY LIMIT TEMPERATURES OVER NEW HAMPSHIRE. THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE EXPECTED AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. BEYOND THIS THE TWO MAIN FORECAST MODELS DISAGREE A BIT. GFS PUSHES THE TROUGH AND FRONT THROUGH FULLY WHILE THE ECMWF LINGERS THE BOUNDARY JUST OFFSHORE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WITH THE FRONT LINGERING OFFSHORE... VARIOUS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ALONG IT AND BRING RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY PRIMARILY TOWARD THE COAST. && .AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SHORT TERM...VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. SCATTERED MVFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY IN SHOWERS. LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT THROUGH SUNDAY. LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE WATERS AND WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE WEDNESDAY. WINDS WITH ALL OF THESE FEATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...CEMPA/SCHWIBS SHORT TERM...SCHWIBS LONG TERM...KIMBLE AVIATION... MARINE...

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