Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 271713 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 1213 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TO JUST SOUTH OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS TODAY. THE LOW WILL LINGER AROUND THROUGH WEDNESDAY BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO OUR REGION. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING A GENERAL SNOWFALL TO THE AREA ON FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... .UPDATE... DEFORMATION BAND CONTINUES TO CHURN OUT INTENSE SNOWFALL ALONG COASTAL NH AND MAINE. VERY INTENSE FRONTOGENESIS AROUND 700 MB AND STRONG UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IN THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE IS HELPING TO CREATE HOURLY SNOWFALL RATES OF 3-5" PER HOUR THIS MORNING. MEASURING THE SNOW IS PROBLEMATIC IN BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AND HEAVY DRIFTING... HOWEVER SNOWFALL TOTALS HAVE TOPPED 20" IN SOME PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NH AND SW MAINE ALREADY THIS MORNING. MESOSCALE MODELS ARE CORRECT IN DEPICTING THIS STORM SLOWLY ROTATING INLAND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS BAND IS ALREADY PIVOTING SLOWLY INLAND WITH THE PIVOT POINT IN EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS. THIS FORMATION WILL CONTINUE TO DUMP HEAVY SNOW OVER SECTIONS THAT HAVE ALREADY SEEN MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW... ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD LIGHTEN UP AFTER THE NEXT 3 HOURS. THE BAND SHOULD REACH A POINT WHERE IT IS CENTERED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM HARMONY...TO BETHEL... TO FRYEBURG ME... AND TOWARDS FARMINGTON... RAYMOND... AND HAMPSTEAD NH. UNFORTUNATELY THIS BAND MAINTAINS THROUGHOUT THE EVENING OVER THESE LOCATIONS... BEFORE SLOWLY BREAKING APART TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. STILL... WE ARE CURRENTLY RECEIVING THE HIGHEST RATES/AMOUNTS CURRENTLY... SO EVEN THOUGH THE BAND WILL BE OVER THESE LOCATIONS PERHAPS LONGER... THEY SHOULD RECEIVE SLIGHTLY LESS THAN AREAS RIGHT ON THE COAST. HURRICANE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN HOISTED FOR THE OUTER WATERS. WE HAVE BEEN RECEIVING REPORTS OF 55+ MPH WIND GUSTS IN SOUTHERN NH. THIS SHOULD NOT BE HARD TO BELIEVE... DUE TO THE SNOWFALL RATES WE HAVE BEEN SEEING... PRECIPITATION LOADING WILL CONTRIBUTE HEAVILY TO MIXING THE VERY STRONG WINDS TO THE SURFACE. IN ADDITION WINDS IN THE 60S AND 70S HAVE BEEN VERIFIED TO OUR SOUTH. SHOULD GO WITHOUT SAYING...BUT TRAVEL IS ESSENTIALLY IMPOSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF MAINE AND NH AT THIS POINT. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... LOW PRES OCCLUDES AND UPPER LOW DRIFTS ACROSS THE AREA THRU WED. THIS WILL CONTINUE -SN FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...THOUGH INTENSITY WILL BE FAR LESS THAN THAT EXPERIENCED TODAY. AN ADDITIONAL COUPLE OF INCHES OF ACCUMULATIONS IS POSSIBLE. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE WITH GUSTY WLY WINDS. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES LEADING TO DECREASED CONFIDENCE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER. THE OVERALL THEME IS WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH FOR THE CONUS...WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE FOR SYNOPTIC SNOWS ROUGHLY EVERY TWO DAYS...WITH FRIDAY - FRIDAY NIGHT...SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...THE MOST LIKELY TIME FRAMES FOR OUR FORECAST AREA AT MOMENT. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD ON A QUIET NOTE UNDER RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT THURSDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH A GENERAL SNOWFALL ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...WEAK RIDGING FOLLOWS FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY NIGHT - MONDAY AS THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD MAY REMAIN OFFSHORE. && .AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SHORT TERM...WIDESPREAD IFR AND LIFR IS DEVELOPING FROM SRN NH TO COASTAL ME AT THIS HOUR. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AS HEAVY SNWFL BAND SLOWLY ROTATES NEWD. THIS WILL CONTINUE THRU EARLY AFTERNOON. KLEB AND KHIE WILL BE SLOWER TO SEE IFR CONDITIONS...POSSIBLY HOLDING OFF UNTIL MID MORNING OR LATER. COASTAL TERMINALS WILL SEE NNELY WIND GUSTS NEAR 45 KTS AT TIMES. SNWFL WINDS DOWN BY TUE EVENING...THOUGH PCPN LINGERS INTO WED. COULD SEE SCATTERED IFR CONDITIONS WILL LINGERING SHSN. LONG TERM... FRI...MVFR IN SNOW WITH LCL IFR CONDS PSSBL. NW SFC WIND GUSTING TO 25 KT. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS...EXCEPT FOR OUTER WATERS S OF CAPE ELIZABETH. HERE A PERIOD OF 65 KT GUSTS APPEARS LIKELY...SO HAVE ISSUED A HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING. ALSO MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IS ALREADY OCCURRING ON THE WATER BASED ON BUOY OBSERVATIONS. HAVE ISSUED A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY THRU WED MORNING AS A RESULT. LONG TERM... THU NIGHT - SAT...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... LARGE...BATTERING WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO STRIKE THE COASTLINE THROUGH THE UPCOMING 5 PM HIGH TIDE. LONG PERIOD SWELLS ARE NOW UP TO 30 FEET AT JEFFREYS LEDGE. EXPECT LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT SPLASH- OVER AND EROSION NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WARNINGS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THIS POTENTIAL HIGH IMPACT EVENT. STORM SURGE VALUES WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW THREE FEET THIS AFTERNOON...AND IN COMBINATION WITH A 9.1 FOOT ASTRONOMICAL TIDE IN PORTLAND...MINOR FLOODING WILL LIKELY OCCUR AS THE STORM TIDE REACHES 12 FEET. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON JUST PRIOR TO HIGH TIDE...WHICH MAY REDUCE THE STORM SURGE. USED THE NORTH ATLANTIC REGIONAL TEAM WAVE RUNUP MATRICES TO FORECAST AND WARN FOR THE TWO HIGH TIDES TODAY. THE OUTPUT SHOWS WAVE ACTION WILL ALLOW FOR LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT EROSION AS WELL AS OVERWASH AT JENNIS...CAMP ELLIS BEACH...FERRY BEACH...FORTUNES ROCKS BEACH...WITH EROSION OCCURING AT POPHAM BEACH. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ007>009- 012>014. BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ018>028. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ025>028. COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ023- 024. NH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ002>009- 011-015. BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ010-012>014. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ001. COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NHZ014. MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ151-153. FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150>154. HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ150-152-154. && $$ JC

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