Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 241116 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 616 AM EST Sat Feb 24 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front moves through the region allowing clearing skies expected in its wake this morning. Temperatures will be mild today reaching the 40s and 50s. The next storm system will bring more widespread precipitation on Sunday, with mainly snow or sleet being the dominant precipitation type. There is also a chance for some freezing rain or rain mainly over southern and coastal areas. Fair weather returns for the first half of the week as a ridge of high pressure slowly builds over the region. Another complex weather system affect the region Thursday and/or Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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615 am Update: Input latest mesonet data for ESTF with only minor tweaks needed. Clearing taking place at this time as downsloping northwest winds developing. Previous Discussion: A cold front will move rapidly across the region this morning with downsloping northwest winds developing behind the front as high pres builds east and north of the area. This will allow gradual clearing this morning with models indicating mostly sunny skies all areas by late morning. Temps will be mild with highs in the 40s to near 50 over central and southern areas while in the mountains 30s can be expected.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... Tonight the center of high pressure builds north of the area in the maritimes and this will allow a low level cold air drainage wind to develop. This CAA Combining with clear skies the first half of the night will allow temps to radiate into the teens and 20s. Models agree on moving another short wave rapidly northeast through the region on Sunday. This will mean another widespread WAA overrunning pattern to develop with several inches of snow expected during the day with lowest amounts along the coast as some low level warm air works into the low levels as the southeast onshore flow develops and tries to move inland. Models hinting this to be another classic cold air damming situation with placement of high pres to the north locking in the cold air for most if not all of the event. Fairly high confidence of a 3-6 inch snowfall across much of the area Sunday with possibly lower amounts to be along the coast and southern areas. Mid level temps are forecast by models to be plenty cold enough for most of the event to be snow although it may end as a light mix toward the end of the day. Due to this occurring during Sunday (our third period), we will be holding off on any headlines at this time, but it appears a winter weather weather advisory may be needed for Sunday for much of the area. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... *** Weather pattern may become active as we move into March as a storm potentially may form south of the region late next week *** Any leftover mixed precipitation will end Sunday evening as a weak area of low pressure exits through the Gulf of Maine. This will set the stage for high pressure from the Ohio Valley gradually building towards the Mid Atlantic seaboard on Monday and Tuesday. This will bring dry conditions to the region. Also, with the source of this airmass from the northern Ohio Valley, surface temperatures are not expected to be chilly despite the cold air advection. In fact, expect above normal temperatures during the period with downslope conditions and mostly sunny skies downwind of the mountains. A weak and fast moving disturbance will cross the northern tier of New England on Wednesday, bringing a weak cold front through the region during the day. Slightly cooler air will build in behind the front as high pressure briefly builds into Maine and New Hampshire from eastern Canada. Potential storm south of our region late in the week: Thereafter, models diverge somewhat as to the track of an intense area of low pressure late in the week. Consensus is the path of this system will be along or just south of the southern New England coastline as it intensifies into a full fledged storm. Strong northeasterly winds are possible along with heavy precipitation over southwest Maine and Southern New Hampshire. Coastal Flooding will need to be monitored if we have a persistent period of gale force winds along the coast due to a building storm surge. Additionally, we will be at the peak of our astronomical tide cycle late in the week. && .AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Short Term...Areas of MVFR/IFR conditions improving to VFR by 12z. VFR conditions today into tonight. Conditions lowering to IFR/LIFR in developing snow and mixed precipitation. Long Term...VFR conditions expected Monday and Tuesday. A weak cold front will cross the region Wednesday, possibly briefly bringing MVFR conditions. && .MARINE... Short Term...Winds will become northwest and remain below SCA levels through today. Tonight the center of high pressure becomes centered over the maritimes allowing an east flow to develop and increase to SCA conditions over the outer waters later tonight. Winds will become southeast and continue to increase allowing seas to build Sunday so SCA conditions will continue. Long Term...SCAs likely Monday, mainly due to seas, then winds and seas expected to be below SCA criteria Tuesday and Wednesday. Gale force winds remain possible late in the week as a storm forms near Long Island New York. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Sunday for ANZ150- 152-154. && $$

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