Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 281133 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 633 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MAINE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TODAY. ANY SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES THIS MORNING WILL END THIS AFTERNOON. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY AND WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 630 AM...CHASING THE LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE INVERTED TROUGH THIS UPDATE. BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS IT LOOKS LIKE MID LVL TROUGH HAS PICKED UP THE SFC TROUGH...AND CONVERGENCE IS SHIFTING EWD. HAVE EXPANDED POPS A BIT TO THE N AND E TO COVER THIS. DEFINITELY SEEING AN EWD PROGRESSION TO THE BACK OF THE SNOW AS IT MOVES ACROSS NH...AND STILL THE NAM PICKS UP ON THIS NICELY. SHOULD SEE ALL ACCUM SNOW MOVE THROUGH THE CWA BY 14-15Z. PREVIOUSLY...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE INVERTED TROUGH THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE GULF OF ME AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. -SN/SHSN BEING REPORTED FROM CENTRAL NH SOUTHEAST TO THE SEACOAST. CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE NAM12...WHICH IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE HRRR/RAP...ALTHOUGH THE NAM IS DOING A BETTER JOB WITH QPF AND LOOKS TO LINGER IT THRU ABOUT 15Z...ALTHOUGH MOST PRECIP WILL FALL BY 12Z. SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE IN CENTRAL AND SRN NH...AND PARTS OF YORK COUNTY ME...MAYBE AN INCH IN SOME SPOTS. NOT MUCH QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT RATIOS ARE IN THE 15-20 TO 1 RANGE. ONCE THE 700MB TROUGH CLEARS THE CWA TO THE EAST BY MIDDAY...TROUGH BREAKS DOWN AND RIDGING STARTS TO DEVELOP...SO SKIES BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DURING TH AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...RANGING FROM MID-UPPER 20S TO LOW-MID 30S SOUTH AND COAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... SFC HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE SW TONIGHT AND SHOULD VERY GOOD RAD COOLING NIGHT...ESPECIALLY WITH SNOWPACK IN PLACE. WHILE MOS GUIDANCE GENERALLY OVERDOES RAD COOLING...A FRESH SNOWPACK MAY MAKE IT MORE REASONABLE. HAVE USED A TRAD BLEND OF MODELS FOR MINS BUT HAVE GIVEN THE MAV/MET MORE WEIGHT...WHICH BRING LOWS IN THE MOUNTAINS VALLEYS CLOSE TO ZERO...AND EVEN THE WARMER SRN ZONES WILL SEE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS FOR MINS. SATURDAY LOOKS GENERALLY FAIR WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SUNNY SKIES IN THE MORNING...WITH INCREASING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON. THE LISTED MIXING WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGH IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. SEVERAL IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LOW VICINITY OF HUDSON BAY WILL BRING BRIEF SHOTS OF ARCTIC AIR TO THE FORECAST AREA. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH A BROAD WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND MILDER TEMPERATURES AS WE WAIT FOR THE NEXT IMPULSE TO DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES BEFORE RACING EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS IMPULSE WILL DRIVE AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION EARLY MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF RETURN OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY. A WARM UP FOLLOWS FOR MIDWEEK BEFORE THE NEXT IMPULSE DRIVES YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY. IN THE DAILIES...A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A TRAILING COLD FRONT EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SHORT TERM...MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO -SN AND LOW CLOUDS AT KPSM/KCON/KLEB/KHIE WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST PART OF THIS MORNING...WITH SOME PERIODS OF IFR IN STEADIER SHSN. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EXPECT BY MIDDAY AT ALL TERMINALS. VFR CONDS THEN EXPECTED THRU SATURDAY. LONG TERM... SAT NIGHT - MON...SCT MVFR PSBL IN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...STILL SEEING SEAS OF 5-6 FT....ALTHOUGH THIS IS MOSTLY DUE TO SWELL...SOME WIND WAVES ARE BEING GENERATED BY NE JET ALONG THE SW ME COAST...BUT SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THRU THE MORNING. OTHERWISE WINDS/SEAS REMAIN BLO SCA CRITERIA. LONG TERM... SUN - TUE...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE LIKELY. SUN AND TUE...WIND GUSTS OUTSIDE THE BAYS COULD APPROACH GALE. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...CEMPA SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION... MARINE...

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