Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 301546 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 1146 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE REGION TODAY INTO FRIDAY. POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND...BRINGING EVEN COLDER AIR AND THE CHANCE OF RAIN AND SOME SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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1145 AM...FORECAST UPDATED TO LINGER THE SPRINKLES A LITTLE LONGER AROUND THE UPSLOPE AREAS...AND MODIFY MAXES A BIT...MAINLY IN THE MTNS WHERE CURRENT OBS ARE NEAR FORECAST HIGHS. STARTING TO SEE BACK EDGE OF THE MID-HIGH CLOUDS SHIFTING EAST...AND EXPECTING MORE SUN ON THE COASTAL PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON. 10 AM...SOME QUICK TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST TO COVER THE SWATH OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE CWA...AND A FEW SPRINKLES IN THE MTNS...THIS MORNING...AS WEAK 500MB WAVE MOVES THRU. SHOULD SEE MORE SUN THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS OUTSIDE THE MTNS. 645 AM UPDATE: ONLY CHANGES WERE TO TAKE OUT THE MENTION OF EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG IN THE NORTHERN VALLEYS. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED ATTM. PREV DISC: HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH A NICE DRY SLOT OF AIR MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON WNW WINDS. MOSTLY SUNNY CONDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS WHILE IN THE MOUNTAINS SOME CLOUDS WILL LINGER. MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON MAX TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 50S IN THE S AND ALONG THE COAST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... HIGH PRES CONTINUES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND INTO FRI. CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT DEVELOPING SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY ALTHOUGH NO PCPN IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. USED A BLEND OF MODELS FOR TEMP AND CLOUD FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND FRI. GENERALLY MODELS WERE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE MEAN TROUGH LATE FRIDAY IN THE DEEP SOUTH BEFORE EJECTING OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS. THIS STRONG SHORT WAVE FINALLY PHASES WITH THE MAIN TROUGH SOMETIME LATE SATURDAY NEAR NEW ENGLAND AS THE WHOLE THING BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED. AT THE SURFACE A COASTAL STORM DEEPENS RAPIDLY AND MOVES NORTH AS WELL. THE GFS MSLP ENSEMBLE MEAN KEEPS IT EAST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK AS DO THE OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND THE EUROPEAN. HOWEVER...COLD TEMPERATURES WILL ALREADY BE IN PLACE OVER THE AREA AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE COMBINED WITH UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. FARTHER EAST LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE MIDCOAST WILL HAVE A HIGHER CHANCE FOR A GLANCING BLOW. DECREASED THE QPF OVER THE REGION A BIT AS THE STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST WITH EACH NEW MODEL RUN... HOWEVER THE KENNEBEC VALLEY AND MIDCOAST REGIONS STILL SHOULD SEE 1-2" OF SNOW. LOCATIONS IN BETWEEN WILL LIKELY SEE A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH. THE SNOW WILL MELT OFF QUICKLY AS HIGHS REACH THE 40S ON SUNDAY. WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM ARE ANOMALOUSLY STRONG...BOTH THE U AND THE V COMPONENTS AT 925MB AND 850MB. THIS WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN GALES OVER THE BAYS TO STRONG GALES OR EVEN STORM FORCE WINDS OVER THE OUTER GULF OF MAINE ON SUNDAY. IN ADDITION A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE COAST. SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT LOOK ESPECIALLY CHILLY FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS AS MUCH COLDER AIR FILTERS IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE COASTAL SYSTEM. IN ADDITION...PWATS TAKE A NOSEDIVE SUNDAY NIGHT TO NEAR 0.10" OR VERY CLOSE TO THE KNOWN MINIMUM FOR THIS STATION FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...HELPING RADIATIONAL COOLING OUT TREMENDOUSLY. HAVE GONE BELOW GUIDANCE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR THIS REASON. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. && .AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SHORT TERM...SOME EARLY MORNING VLY FOG WILL ALLOW IFR CONDS INTO THE MORNING OTRW MOST AREAS WILL BE VFR TODAY INTO FRI. BY LATE FRI SOME MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. LONG TERM...COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH ON SATURDAY BRINGING CEILINGS DOWN BELOW VFR. MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR CIGS/VSBYS MOVE INTO THE AREA AS RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SPREAD NORTH. IFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SNOW. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE SUN THROUGH MONDAY. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA LVLS THRU FRI. LONG TERM...A DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM WILL AFFECT THE WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY...BUT CONSECUTIVE MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN MOVING THE STORM OUT FARTHER. CURRENTLY THE STORM PASSES OUTSIDE THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. HOWEVER GALES APPEAR LIKELY OVER THE BAYS WITH STORM FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE OVER THE OUTER WATERS. SEAS WILL ALSO CLIMB TO 8-12 FT IN THE OUTER WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA BY MONDAY. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...CEMPA SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION... MARINE...

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