Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 271422 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 1022 AM EDT Tue Sep 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will move well offshore this afternoon taking any lingering showers with it. Conditions should dry out behind the front with temperatures a few degrees warmer than Monday. Low pressure developing along the offshore front will create a northeasterly wind over Maine and New Hampshire Tuesday night, bringing clouds back into the area. Several waves of low pressure will track northeast along the front through the western Atlantic, with an occasional chance of showers especially near the coast throughout the week. The best chance of rain will be this weekend when the large upper level low pressure system over the Great Lakes lifts to the north, spreading rain into New England. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 1022 AM...for this ESTF update I slowed the clearing and made adjustments to near term grids to reflect satellite trends as well as the 14z mesonet. Prev Disc... 615 AM Update...Rain shield is moving through the area quickly and should be offshore by 9 am if not sooner. Some models including the HRRR have been too slow with this system. Have adjusted PoPs as well as temperatures and dew points. So far, storm total precipitation where it has rained has ranged from one tenth of an inch to around a half inch in very localized spots. Previous discussion... Variable cloudiness across the region with warm overnight temperatures in the 50s areawide and even 60 degrees this hour in Nashua. Rain showers are just moving into NH and will eventually reach Maine in the next 2-3 hours before exiting the coast by mid morning. Most areas will see less than two-tenths of an inch out of this particular system. Temperatures will rebound into the 60s and 70s as skies clear from west to east. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... High pressure builds in quickly behind the front bringing cooler and drier air into northern New England. Wednesday`s highs will be cooler as a result around the upper 50s to the mid 60s. We will still have a fair amount of cloud cover with the upper low remaining nearby. Even as high pressure wedges against the higher terrain, showers will continue to be possible along the coast with a mid Atlantic low moving northeast along the coast. Will likely see drizzle as well. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... A very large upper low that will be centered over the Ohio valley throughout the latter part of the week will drift slowly northeast over the weekend. This will produce a moist unstable air mass well to its east. Unsettled weather with several periods of rain or showers can be expected late in the week and into the weekend. This will be accompanied by a damp onshore flow as a broad persistent northeast maritime flow develops. With this northeast flow cool temperatures are expected and not much of a variation in diurnal temps expected. Models differ some on features and timing of some of the periods of precipitation so staying with a blend of models appeared best. Although a prolonged period of unsettled weather is expected, qpf amounts from the slow moving system will likely remain light overall as most models generally keep the heavier areas of rainfall south and east of the region. && .AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Short Term...Conditions have deteriorated this morning in showers which will end by mid morning. We will see MVFR conditions with IFR possible in heavy rain showers. Lower ceilings are more likely along the coast. Tonight into Wednesday morning drizzle and stratus will be possible. This could bring IFR conditions after 00Z Wednesday, with the western New Hampshire terminals HIE and LEB least likely to be impacted. Long Term...MVFR conditions move in Wednesday night through the remainder of the period with some IFR conditions likely in any fog/stratus that settles over the region at times due to the persistent onshore maritime flow. && .MARINE... Short Term...A front crosses the region this morning. Winds will be variable before becoming easterly tonight. Winds and seas will flirt with SCA criteria beginning late tonight. Will let the day shift take a look at the possibility of issuing a SCA. Long Term...Winds and seas will remain at SCA levels through the outlook period over the outer waters and possibly in the bays due to a persistent northeast flow. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...None. && $$ ES

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