Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 232316 AAB AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 716 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND EXITS OFFSHORE THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WET WEATHER WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH DIVES IN. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... .UPDATE.. HAVE CANCELLED THE WATCH FOR GRAFTON...COOS...OXFORD...AND SOMERSET COUNTIES AND ALLOWED FRANKLIN COUNTY TO STAY IN THE WATCH TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SEVERE STORMS IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE COUNTY. SOMEWHAT MORE ORGANIZED WESTERN PART OF THE SQUALL LINE FROM GRAY SW HAS BEEN HAS MORE SEVERE ELEMENTS THAN THE EASTERN HALF...EXHIBITING MORE UPDRAFT STRENGTH AND LIGHTNING. THESE CELLS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THEY MOVE OFFSHORE AND LIKELY PRODUCE 34 KT+ OVER THE WATERS. MORE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS BEHIND OUTFLOW OVER THE MIDCOAST SHOULD JUST POSE ONLY A RAIN THREAT. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT OVER THE ENTIRE AREA IN THIS ANAFRONTAL PATTERN BUT FLOODING SHOULD NOT BE A CONCERN. PATCHY FOG DENSE WILL DEVELOP AREAWIDE AND ADDED THIS TO THE FORECAST. WILL CANCEL REMAINING COUNTIES FROM THE WATCH AS SEVERE/STRONG STORMS MOVE ESE. && PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH 10 PM. LINE OF STRONG STORMS ARE NOW MOVING SLOWLY SE THROUGH NH AND MAINE. AREA OF OUTFLOW NOW MOVING AHEAD OF THE STORMS IN OXFORD AND CARROLL COUNTIES MAY EVENTUALLY INTERACT WITH THE SEABREEZE IN ANDROSCOGGIN/ CUMBERLAND COUNTIES. STRONGER/ SEVERE STORMS ARE LOCATED IN VT AND MAY MOVE INTO NH IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH IS SUGGESTED BY THE HRRR MODEL AHEAD OF THE CURRENT LINE OF STORMS. SO FAR THE LACK OF MOISTURE AT 700MB IS LIKELY THE REASON FOR STORMS NOT REALIZING THEIR FULL POTENTIAL TODAY...SOMETHING TO BE THANKFUL FOR. SHOULD BE ABLE TO DROP THE NORTHERN COUNTIES FROM THE WATCH SHORTLY. ADJUSTED POPS...MAX TEMPERATURE...DEW POINTS...AND WEATHER GRIDS FOR THIS UPDATE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS S AND SE ZONES THROUGH MIDDAY THURS OR SO...THEN SOME CLEARING TAKES PLACE. A FAIR NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR THURS NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS. && .AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...IFR OR LOWER IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING...THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE FORESEEN. MAINLY VFR THU NIGHT AND FRI. LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...IFR CONDITIONS WITH SCT SHRA/TSTMS LIKELY TO DEVELOP SATURDAY NGT AND SUNDAY. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...SCA FOR TONIGHT FOR THE OCEAN WATERS FOR MARGINAL 25 KT GUSTS AND SEAS 4-6 FT. QUIETER WINDS AND SEAS THU THROUGH FRI. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS THRU SATURDAY MORNING THEN SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES POSSIBLY PUSHING WINDS AND SEAS TO SCA LEVELS OVER THE OPEN WATERS LATE SATURDAY THRU SUNDAY. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ150-152- 154. && $$ UPDATE...HANES

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