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FXUS61 KGYX 132359 AAA
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Gray ME
759 PM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers dissipate south of the mountains by this
evening with warmer conditions returning for tonight and early
Sunday. Showers then move back into the picture Sunday
afternoon and night. High pressure gradually builds in early
next week with partly to mostly sunny skies outside of the
mountains along with a warming trend. Cooler conditions with
mainly rain expected late next week as low pressure develops to
our south.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Update...Minor changes to reflect latest observational trends.
Added some PoP to the Midcoast where an area of showers will
sweep thru over the next hour. Otherwise showers will tend to
focus on the mtns where upslope flow will provide the lift.

Previous discussion...500 MB trough extends S out of QE and
into ME attm, with weak sfc reflection near the St. Lawrence
valley. There is a front located along the trough axis, with a
definite wind shift, and lower Tds behind it.. Any showers along
the front will continue moving N while the front shifts to the
E this afternoon. In the W flow behind the front, both the drier
air and the downslope should bring an end to the showers in all
but the mtns by early evening. However, in the mtns will see an
surge of upslope showers through this evening into the pre-dawn
before they start to wane. Will be snow at the highest
elevations, but could see snow mix in all the way down to around
2000 ft by later this evening. Lows range from the mid 30s to
around 40. Some clearing in the S is possible late.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Weak high pressure builds in very briefly Sunday morning, and
should see at least partly sunny skies S of the mtns through
about midday before another fast moving system approaches from
the W in the afternoon. Further to the E the sun may linger
through mid afternoon before clouds move in. Highs will be in
the 50s, and could push to near 60 in srn NH and SW ME. Shower
will likely move into NH by late afternoon.

The bulk of the next system will slide S of the CWA Sunday
evening, and it will move quickly. It actually shows some traits
of an MCS, and is threat for severe weather to our SW, but we
will remain on the cool side of of it, and any light precip we
get will be mostly from the weak forcing between the sfc low to
our S and the weak upper level wave passing just to our N. Most
of the precip should be done by midnight or shortly there after,
although clouds will linger, and any areas that do see some
clearing breaks, mainly in the S, could see some late fog. Lows
will bin the mid to upper 30s N, to the low to mid 40s. S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Mostly dry and warm conditions are in store for the first half of
the week while the second half looks unsettled (again) with
increasing rain chances.

Monday morning starts with surface low pressure approaching the Bay
of Fundy and its associated cold front well south and east of the
Maine coastline, leaving a W/NW flow in its way. This will result in
clouds/upslope showers in the mountains with gradual drying/party
sunny conditions elsewhere. That said, increasing Froude numbers may
allow for a few showers south of the mountains in the afternoon if
enough moisture can be retained, especially with broad cyclonic
flow aloft with an upper low still lurking to our north.

Speaking of which, another shortwave stemming from the main upper
low will swing through Monday evening and Monday night, boosting
shower coverage in the mountains but not much elsewhere. Tuesday
will feature similar weather to that of Monday with
isolated/scattered upslope showers in the mountains and maybe a
couple for downwind locations. Both days will be warm with high
temperatures mostly in the 60s.

The upper low opens into a wave and dives to the south and east
Wednesday (with any precip expected to remain to our east) while
another shortwave moves across the Great Lakes. In between these
systems, an upper ridge will slowly build into New England, keeping
Wednesday mostly dry along with warm temperatures again.
Temperatures inland from the coast reaching upper 50s to lower 60s
but at the coast, it will be a bit cooler with a seabreeze expected.

Prior to the ridge cresting overhead, a southern stream shortwave
along with the Great Lakes shortwave could bring some showers to the
area with guidance favoring New Hampshire Wednesday night into
Thursday. Once these pass, guidance is in pretty good agreement
holding the ridge steady before shifting it east Friday as a potent
shortwave races across southern Canada and sends a cold front toward
the Northeast US. This looks to be the better chance for precip
across the region this week in the Friday into Friday night time
frame. Depending on how quickly the front clears, Saturday at this
time looks overall drier but breezy with a few showers.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Short Term...Some MVFR possible tonight, but should return to
VFR for Sunday, until a another system bring more MVFR cigs and
some showers Sun night.

Long Term...Primarily VFR Monday and Tuesday with W/NW winds
potentially gusting to around 20 kt during the daytime hours.
The exception may be at HIE on Monday where MVFR ceilings are
possible on Monday as well as a few showers Monday night into
Tuesday. Rain chances and the potential for flight restrictions
increase late in the day Wednesday and into Thursday as a
disturbance moves toward New England. At this time, the NH
terminals stand the higher chances for precip and restrictions
Wednesday night and into Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Seas will stay above SCA at least into Sunday
night,despite winds gradually diminish Sunday, so SCA remains in
place.

Long Term...The outer waters may hold onto SCA conditions through
Monday as wave models are advertising 5 ft seas. After that, winds
and seas diminish through Wednesday as high pressure builds toward
the waters. More unsettled conditions are on tap for the second half
of the week with a low pressure moving northward from the Great
Lakes and other possibly developing near or just offshore the Mid-
Atlantic coast Wednesday night or Thursday. This could bring
increasing winds/seas from Wednesday night into Friday, but to what
degree is uncertain. A cold front and another low pressure may then
cross the waters late Friday or Friday night.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Some smaller and faster reacting river forecast points have
crested and are receding today, while some of the larger main
stem rivers, especially the Kennebec with its tidal
fluctuations, will continue to rise and not crest until this
evening. Any light rainfall tonight into Sunday should not have
an effect on the rivers.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ150-152-154.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Legro