Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 211402 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 1002 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL DRAG A TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PROVIDE LINGERING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY. A SECOND SURGE OF COOL AIR MOVES IN ON TUESDAY AND MAY SET OFF A FEW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. AFTER A COOL SHOT OF AIR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND AT THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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10 AM...VISIBLE SAT PIX SHOWS SUNNY SKIES ACROSS NRN NH AND WRN ME ATTM SO MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER AND DROPPED POPS TO ZERO TO REFLECT THESE CONDS FOR NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. OVER SOUTHERN AND COASTAL AREAS MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TO REFLECT LATEST TRENDS. MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE TO TEMPS BASED ON LATEST OBS. NO OTHER CHANGES ATTM. PREV DISC... AT 06Z...A 1000 MILLIBAR LOW WAS SITUATED OVER WESTERN QUEBEC WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW PRECEDED THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. WE`LL SEE VARIABLE CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY IN ADVANCE OF THIS BOUNDARY. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWED SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THAT WILL CROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...VARIABLE CLOUDS WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR CONVECTION THROUGH THE DAY WITH APPROACH OF FRONT AND DAYTIME HEATING THAT WARMS TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT AND EXITS THE COAST BY MORNING ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60. ON MONDAY...WE`LL SEE LINGERING CLOUDS WITH THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR A SHOWER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGH WILL RANGE FROM 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS...TO NEAR 70 AT THE COAST WHERE WE`LL SEE THE MOST SUNSHINE. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE 500MB TROUGH THAT MOVES THROUGH AREA TUE INTO WED...WILL BE THE LAST WE SEE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS LARGE SCALE RIDGINGDEVELOPS ACROSS ALL BUT THE WEST COAST OF NOAM...WITH THE RIDGE PUSHING AS FAR N AS JAMES BAY BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WHICH WILL LEAD TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SEVERAL DAYS OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THU INTO NEXT WEEKEND. INITIALLY...WILL START OUT WITH A BIT OF COOLER AIR MON NIGHT AND A A SECOND SURGE OF COOLER AIR TUE AS 500MB TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THRU. IT COULD SET OFF A FEW SHOWERS IN THE MTNS TUE....AND HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S TUE AND WED WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S N TO MID 40S S. AFTER THIS THE LARGE SCALE RIDGE BUILDS AND PERSISTENT WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPLY WARM AIR TO THE REGION...WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE 10-15C RANGE. THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGHS IN THE 70S ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA /NEAR 80 IN INTERIOR SRN NH AND SW ME/ AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY SUNNY AND POPS 10 PERCENT OR LESS. && .AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SHORT TERM...INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT FOG AND LOW CLOUDS INTO THE AREA TODAY WITH AREAS OF MVFR...AND LCL IFR THIS MORNING. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR TONIGHT WITH LCL IFR...THEN BECOMING VFR MONDAY WITH SCT MVFR IN SHOWERS. LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR...OTHER THAN VLY FOG...TUE THRU THU. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT AND SEAS NEAR 5 FT EXPECTED TODAY...THEN WINDS AND SEAS WILL DROP BELOW SCA TONIGHT. LONG TERM...SEAS FROM PRIOR PERSISTENT SW FLOW WILL START AT 5-6 FT MON NIGHT...BUT NW FLOW WILL KNOCK THESE BACK THRU TUE...AND THEN LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW PERSISTS THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150- 152-154. && $$

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