Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 270146 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 846 PM EST FRI DEC 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TOMORROW. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TOMORROW NIGHT AND WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. COLDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. && 00Z UPDATE... QUICK UPDATE TO DROP HEADLINES FOR COASTAL WATERS FORECAST. ASIDE FROM LOW CLOUDS PUSHING THROUGH NORTHERN ZONES...EXPECT A QUIET NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. OTHER THAN A FEW TEMP TWEAKS NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED ATTM. PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION... .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE REGION AND WITH THE WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WE WILL SEE WINDS DROPPING OFF THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE NW FLOW ALOFT HAS MADE A DEFINITIVE LINE OF UPSLOPE CLOUDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND MOST CLEAR SKIES IN THE DOWNSLOPING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EVEN THOUGH AREAS WITH CLEAR SKIES WILL SEE THE GREATEST RADIATIONAL COOLING...TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE LOW 30S TO UPPER 20S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... RIDGING OVERHEAD WITH T850 CLIMBING TO +5C BY LATE SATURDAY EVENING AS FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL KEEP OUR TEMPS WELL ABOVE AVERAGE AGAIN TOMORROW. SINCE THE WINDS ALOFT WILL NOT SWITCH TO THE SOUTHWEST UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...WE WILL STILL SEE SOME UPSLOPE CLOUDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TOMORROW AND EVEN A LIGHT SNOW SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE. DOWNSLOPING SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER GREAT DAY IN THESE AREAS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT IS STARVING FOR MOISTURE HOWEVER...AND NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN JUST A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... EARLY SUN COLD FNT CROSSES THE REGION. FLOW IS FAST AND FORCING LOOKS FAIRLY SHEARED OUT...SO I DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PCPN WITH THE FROPA. IT WILL USHER IN A STABLE AND MUCH COOLER PATTERN FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. THE HIGHLIGHTS ARE RISING HEIGHTS AND RIDGING BUILDING THRU AK AND INTO THE ARCTIC. ALSO PERSISTENT TROFFING IS FORECAST IN THE SWRN CONUS. ALL THE WHILE SERN CONUS RIDGING TRIES TO HOLD FIRM...WITH LITTLE BLOCKING IN THE NRN ATLANTIC. THE -EPO /RIDGING THRU AK/ SHOULD PROVIDE CANADA AND THE NRN TIER STATES WILL PLENTY OF COLDER AIR. CERTAINLY MUCH COLDER THAN THE CURRENT PERIOD. THEREFORE TEMPS ARE MAINLY NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL THRU THE ENTIRE LONG TERM. THERE IS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY THERE...AND IT EXTENDS INTO PCPN CHANCES AS WELL. THE -PNA /TROFFING IN THE WRN CONUS/ WILL KEEP S/WV TROFS EJECTING TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST. THE SERN RIDGE AND LOW HEIGHTS ACROSS CANADA WILL KEEP FLOW PROGRESSIVE. AND FINALLY LACK OF BLOCKING WILL ALLOW ANY STORM SYSTEMS THAT DO DEVELOP TO HAVE THE POSSIBILITY OF CUTTING TO THE W. THIS COULD FIRSTLY SNEAK SOME WARMTH INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD. SECONDLY...THIS WILL CREATE A BIT OF HAVOC IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE REGARDING KEY S/WV TROFS AND TIMING. IT IS LIKELY WE WILL SEE TIMING DIFFERENCE OF A DAY OR TWO BETWEEN MODELS...AS WELL AS DIFFERING DEGREES OF AMPLIFICATION. TRIED TO KEEP SOME POP IN THE MTNS TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE FAST MOVING S/WV FEATURES. IN ADDITION...I DID KNOCK DOWN POP IN THE FAR RANGES OF THE EXTENDED TO HIGH CHANCE...AS DESPITE GOOD AGREEMENT TODAY THE ECMWF AND GFS WILL LIKELY WAFFLE ON SOLUTIONS BEYOND DAY 5 IN THE COMING DAYS. IN SHORT THE LONG TERM LOOKS FAIRLY ACTIVE...WITH PLENTY OF PCPN CHANCES THRU THE NEW YEAR. COLD AIR WILL BE AVAILABLE...BUT THAT DOESN/T MEAN SLAM DUNK SNWFL IN EVERY SYSTEM EITHER. BASICALLY A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL WINTER CONDITIONS. && .AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH POSSIBLY SOME MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE PERSISTENT NW FLOW CAUSING UPSLOPING CLOUDS. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING MAY BRING A FEW AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS. LONG TERM...FROPA OCCURS SUN WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. ISOLD MVFR OR LOWER IS POSSIBLE IN A PASSING SHRA OR SHSN...BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT WLY FLOW MAY LEAD TO MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR THE MTNS THRU MIDWEEK. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS EASED THIS AFTERNOON AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. EXPECTING SCA CONDITIONS DUE TO MOSTLY TO SEAS IN THE 5 TO 6 FOOT RANGE FROM THE LONG WESTERLY FETCH TO DROP OFF THIS EVENING. AFTER THAT WE WILL HAVE HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND MOST LIKELY STAY BELOW SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH. LONG TERM...MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND COLD FNT SUN...IN WLY FLOW. AFTER THAT HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE WATERS AND WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...NONE.
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