Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 040313 AAB AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 1013 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL SWING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA TONIGHT TRYING TO PUSH A WARM FRONT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. AS THE LOW SHIFTS TO OUR NORTH...IT WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY AND CREST OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL DRAG TRAILING WARM AND COLD FRONTS ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... .UPDATE... SNOW CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE NOTED IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE JUST ENTERING QUEBEC PROVINCE. THE CURRENT WAVE OF PRECIPITATION MAY REPRESENT THE HEAVIEST OF THE NIGHT WITH LIGHTER SHOWERS TO FOLLOW. IN FACT WE MAY SEE THIS EVENT ENDING IN THE NEXT 3-4 HOURS WITH A SLEET/FREEZING RAIN/RAIN MIX POSSIBLE BRIEFLY ON THE TAIL END AND CONTINUED UPSLOPE SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS. WITH THAT IN MIND MID SHIFT MAY BE ABLE TO DROP ADVISORIES EARLY ON. OTHERWISE SNOW IS OF THE SLUSHY WET VARIETY MAKING DRIVING SLIPPERY. UPDATED TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT GRIDS FOR CURRENT TRENDS... OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST. && PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... WARM AIR ADVECTION OVERSPREADING THE REGION THIS EVENING IS ACCOMPANIED BY SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. TIME OF ARRIVAL HAS SLOWED SOMEWHAT AND THIS HAS TO DO WITH ALL THE DRY AIR ALOFT AND TOP DOWN SATURATION TAKING ITS TIME. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS... QPF... AND HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT GRIDS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... WE BREAK OUT INTO THE WARM SECTOR WEDNESDAY MORNING AND A LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE LOWER LEVELS. H85 TEMPERATURES A BALMY 0 TO -5C SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 40S AS SOME SUN IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS THE DAY WEARS ON AND A DRY SLOT MOVES THROUGH BY LATE MORNING. A DRY WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT SOME CLOUDS WILL BE NOTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A COLD FRONT STALLS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND AND WE REMAIN ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. USED A BLEND OF THE THE MODELS FOR TEMPERATURES WED AND WED NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BRING SNOW TO THE SOUTH OF OUR AREA ON THURS WILL BE SHUNTED OUT TO SEA BEFORE IT CAN BRING US ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. A FEW FLURRIES POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERNMOST ZONES THEN...BUT THAT/S ABOUT IT. OTHERWISE...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER. A WARM UP IS QUITE POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SHORT TERM...CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR TONIGHT IN SNOW. THEN IMPROVING TO VFR BY WED MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO WED NIGHT. LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...AN INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT WILL REACH SCA CRITERIA BY LATER THIS EVENING SO A SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED AND WILL CONTINUE INTO WED OVER THE OUTER WATERS INTO THE AFTERNOON. LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF THE TIME THU THROUGH SUN. THE STRONGEST OF WHICH ARE EXPECTED ON SAT WHEN GUSTS MAY APPROACH LOW-END GALE FORCE AT TIMES. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028. NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ001>015. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ151-153. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150-152- 154. && $$ .UPDATE...HANES

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