Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 272200 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 600 PM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will track across southern New England before exiting the coast this evening. This disturbance will produce rain and a light wintry mix across portions of the interior through late today. A cold front will push through the region Tuesday night resulting in upslope showers and a brisk northwesterly flow Wednesday into Thurday. A weak ridge will build into the region on Thursday and remain through Friday. The next storm will approach the region on Friday night bringing widespread precipitation for late Friday into Saturday. The best chance of showers will be across northern and mountain sections with approach of the cold front. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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555pm Update: some lingering very light pcpn exiting to the east as forecast. Input latest obs data and temperature forecast looks good. No changes to previous forecast attm. Previous Discussion: Steadier precipitation is tapering from southwest to northeast with passage of the shortwave impulse evident on GOES water vapor imagery. At the surface...low pressure was centered over southeast Massachusetts and will slide offshore during the next few hours. The steadier mixed precipitation will linger across the mountains...vicinity of the international border...next few hours and will hold on to the current winter weather advisory headline there. Otherwise...steadier rain and mixed precipitation over central Maine will exit that area over the next hour and the advisory will be expired there. Overnight...mostly cloudy with abundant low level moisture with some patchy drizzle and fog. Low will be mainly in the lower and mid 30s with some upper 20s across the northern mountains.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Onshore flow tomorrow and tomorrow night ahead of a northern stream impulse and associated cold front. Highs mainly in the 40s in the onshore flow with a few 50 degree readings over southern New Hampshire and Connecticut valley. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A short wave trough will move across the region on Wednesday as low pressure departs to our southeast. Colder air will filter into the region Wednesday and especially Wednesday night on increasing northerly winds. Upslope snow showers should be prevalent in the mountains both Wed and Wed night. The next possible precipitation maker is agreed upon by most deterministic models and ensembles to arrive Friday or Friday night. However, significant differences in short wave/SFC low track exist which allows for spread in thermal profiles and QPF coverage. At this time, it does appear that some accumulating snow and and/or mixed precipitation will be possible later Friday and Friday night, and perhaps into Saturday. However, there is a chance that the bulk of the precipitation shield gets suppressed to our south, leaving us dry or with just a little light precip. && .AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Short Term...IFR will likely persist through tonight in clouds and areas of drizzle and fog...with some improvement to MVFR on Tue. Long Term... Small Craft conditions are likely Wednesday night Thursday as northwesterly flow moves over the waters in the wake of the cold frontal passage. Small crafts are once again possible over the weekend depending on track and strength of low pressure. && .MARINE... Short Term...Should see marginal small craft in all but Casco Bay into tonight. Small craft seas should linger into Tuesday outside the bays. Long Term... Small Craft conditions are likely Thursday as northwesterly flow moves over the waters in the wake of the cold frontal passage. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ150>152-154. && $$

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