Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KGYX 191717 AAB
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Gray ME
1217 PM EST Sun Feb 19 2017
A weak cold front will approach from the north today and will
drop south through the region tonight. High pressure will build
in from the northwest Monday and will crest over the area Monday
night. High pressure will shift offshore on Tuesday as a weak
warm front approaches from the west. The warm front will push
east through the region Tuesday night. Weak low pressure will
move east through the northern Great lakes on Wednesday and will
continue east through southern Quebec Wednesday night. A
trailing cold front will gradually drop south through the region
on Thursday...stalling over southern New England. The front
will lift northward as a warm front on Friday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --1217 PM Update... Have increased temperatures once more under
clear/sunny skies across much of the area and southwesterly
winds. CLouds are encroaching from the north and also affecting
the NH seacoast and SW ME. Temperatures may increase a degree or
two in the sunny areas over the next couple of hours but after
that we should have seen our daily peaks everywhere. We will not
be reaching our records (Portland 57, Concord 64) today despite
the warm weather. A few showers are developing across the north
and will be a mix of rain and snow depending on temperature
9am update... Temperatures are soaring under mostly clear skies.
The surface trough and wind shift is all the way back in the St.
Lawrence valley right now which will give most of our area a
chance to bake under clear skies and west winds for a few more
hours. Increased the high temperatures especially in downsloping
regions such as IZG where it`s already in the mid 50s and in
southern New Hampshire. Also increased the winds slightly with
more of a west flow. After a week of winter looks like a taste
Quick update to adjust temps/td`s which are all
over the place due to unseasonably warm air aloft and occasional
westerlys mixing down from time to time. Perfect example is IZG
at 49 degrees and LEW 23. Expect temps to take quite a jump in
areas that decoupled overnight around mid to late morning as
mixing gets going. Otherwise weather remains quiet across the
region. No other changes planned attm.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Weak cold front will approach from the
north today. Front has already pushed associated clouds into
northern zones early this morning. Downsloping winds should help
dry some of this moisture as it heads south through the
afternoon hours but will likely see scattered to broken clouds
working into central and southern zones later this afternoon and
early this evening. Aside from a few sprinkles or flurries in
northern zones...should see a dry day with high temperatures
well above normal. Have gone several degrees above
guidance...especially in southern zones where highs will top out
in the lower to mid 50s. Elsewhere highs will range through the
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.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
Cold front will drop south through the region overnight. Increasing
upslope flow will produce a few evening rain or snow showers in
the north with just variable cloudiness during the evening in
the south. Expect clearing after midnight. Lows by Monday
morning will range from the upper teens to lower 20s north and
mid 20s to near 30 south.
High pressure will build in from the northwest on Monday. Should
see plenty of sun and moderate northwest winds. Highs will range
through the 30s to near 40.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Fast and largely unamplified pacific flow continues through the
long term period. In general, this means warmer than normal
temperatures and a lack of significant weather systems through
the work week. The only fly in the ointment is a little weak
warm air advection precipitation Tuesday night in an environment
characterized by near or above freezing temperatures aloft.
This may mean a little light mixed precipitation or light
freezing rain for a time Tuesday night which could make some
surfaces slick. Otherwise, the next possible significant weather
maker could arrive Saturday. At this point it looks pretty warm
- could just be a warm and windy event.
.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Short Term...VFR today with areas of MVFR ceilings in the
mountains. VFR Sunday night with areas of MVFR ceilings in the
north clearing after midnight. VFR on Monday.
Long Term...VFR conditions are expected Monday night and
Tuesday. MVFR conditions will be possible Tuesday night in a
little light mixed precipitation. VFR conditions are then
expected Wednesday and Thursday.
-- Changed Discussion --Short Term...Have extended SCAs through Sunday night for
westerly winds of 15 to 25 kts.
Long Term...Sub-SCA conditions are expected through the bulk of
the Monday night-Thursday period.
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MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Monday for ANZ150-152-154.