Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 251606 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 1206 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will approach from the west today and will cross the region tonight, providing another round of showers and thunderstorms. High pressure will build in from the west Tuesday through Wednesday. A weak frontal boundary will settle south from Canada Thursday and will stall just south of the region on Thursday and perhaps Friday. Areas of low pressure may travel along this front to our south over the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Noon update...Showers and thunderstorms continue to move slowly eastward through New York. Based on current movement, they should be entering western NH between 3 and 5 pm today. Model are not in good agreement with latest HRRR continue to weaken cells over northern areas with southern areas most favorable for heavy rain/severe potential. Grids updated for current conditions. 920 am update... No significant change to forecast. Latest HRRR run shows weakening showers as they move east with greatest threat of heavy rain/possible severe weather across southern New Hampshire. Have updated grids for current conditions. ----- Cold front approaching from the west will bring variable cloudiness today and a chance of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon...mainly in western zones. Timing of the front not ideal for a big convective outbreak but could see some stronger cells getting into southwest New Hampshire during the late afternoon and early evening. SPC has shifted marginal risk of severe back to the west with just Cheshire, Sullivan and Grafton counties in New Hampshire included in this outlook. Best shear generally remains west of the forecast area today and gut feeling is capes will be dwindling by the time activity pushes into the connecticut valley but can`t rule out a stray severe with wind damage being the main threat. Expect storms in these areas to produce very heavy rainfall as pwat`s spike in the 1.5 to 2 inch range ahead of the front. Good storm motion of 25 to 30 kts should keep things moving along but any areas of training cells will have to be closely monitored for flash flooding. Expect showers and some thunderstorms to spread across most of New Hampshire through early evening. Highs today will range through the 80s across most of the forecast area with lower to mid 90s in southern New Hampshire. Developing sea breeze will cap temps at the coast in the upper 70s to mid 80s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
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Cold front will gradually cross the forecast area overnight. Showers and some thunderstorms will push through western Maineduring the evening hours and expect the bulk of this activity to push east of the forecast area by midnight or shortly after. Ocean stratus may blanket coastal Maine for good portion of the night before westerlies kick toward daybreak. Inland areas will see areas of fog. Should see a warm and muggy night with lows ranging through the 60s. Slightly cooler and less humid air will arrive on gusty northwest winds Tuesday as high pressure builds in from the west. Will see a mix of sun and clouds with highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s in the north and mid to upper 80s in the south.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Wednesday will remain dry with a ridge of high pressure building over the region. On Thursday, a cold front will slip south from Canada and will cross New England. Unfortunately, there are some timing differences from model to model and run to run with this feature. Thereafter, the 00Z model suite stalls this front to our south. Again there are model differences as to exactly how far south of our region the front ends up becoming stationary. The GFS brings the surface front all the way to the mid Atlantic region, while the latest Euro hangs this system up further to the north, over southern New England. This location will have significant ramifications to next weekends forecast as a series of weak areas of low pressure are forecast to move along this front. This would bring well needed rain to the region. For now, have included chance pops for precip during this period. && .AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Short Term...VFR today with areas of mvfr ceilings/vsby associated with thunderstorms in western zones late. Areas of mvfr/ifr ceilings/vsby in coastal and southern interior portions of Maine overnight. VFR Tuesday. Long Term...VFR conditions are expected Wednesday, with increasing chances for some restrictions Thursday as a cold front crosses the region. An area of low pressure will cross through New England on Saturday and again Sunday lowering visibilities and ceilings. && .MARINE... Short Term...no flags. Long Term...Winds and seas look to remain below SCA thresholds through the end of the week. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...Jensenius SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION... MARINE...

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