Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 240254 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 954 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THIS GIVES WAY TO LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST. THIS LOW WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE EXITING INTO THE MARITIMES SATURDAY NIGHT. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK SUNDAY ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND QUICKLY DEVELOPS WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. A SHOT OF COLDER AIR FOLLOWS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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955 PM UPDATE: NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. 715 PM UPDATE: QUIET NIGHT AND THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST ON TRACK. NO NEED FOR ANY CHANGES TO FORECAST AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: FAIRLY QUIET NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL BEGIN TO GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS BY SUNRISE TOMORROW.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY MORNING AND THEN CROSSES JUST INSIDE THE BENCHMARK BY LATE MORNING. PRECIPITATION SHIELD BY THIS TIME SHOULD BE REACHING INTO SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S. SNOW SHOULD BEGIN FALLING OVER THIS SAME AREA AROUND THIS TIME. AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DEEPEN PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. STRONG DYNAMICS SHOULD PRODUCE SNOWFALL RATES OF AN INCH AN HOUR OR MORE FOR A SHORT TIME. THE LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY EXITS INTO THE MARITIMES DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END. THE MODELS ARE IN SURPRISINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE NAM IS A BIT COLDER IN THE MID LEVELS AND PRODUCES A LITTLE BIT MORE SNOW...AS DOES THE EURO. EXPECT THIS TO BE ALMOST EXCLUSIVELY AN ALL SNOW EVENT. EXCEPTIONS COULD BE NEAR THE COAST OVER THE MIDCOAST OF MAINE AND OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE WHERE A MIX OF SLEET AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE. HAVE HOISTED WINTER STORM WARNINGS ALONG THE COAST WITH ADVISORIES JUST INLAND. IF THE TRACK OF THE STORM WERE TO CHANGE EVEN A LITTLE BIT THE SOLUTION WOULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS FAST AND MERIDIONAL THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. SEVERAL SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES DIG INTO THE DEEP SOUTH AND MOVE OFFSHORE BEFORE TURNING NORTH. AT THE SAME TIME... SPOKES OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE POLAR VORTEX DIP DOWN AT TIMES TO INTERACT WITH THESE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES. THIS RESULTS IN A COUPLE DISTURBANCES THIS WEEK THAT WILL AFFECT NEW ENGLAND. MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT SUNDAY... RESULTING IN A SPAN OF COLDER WEATHER. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH TO THE TEENS SOUTH ON TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE ZERO OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN AND IN THE NEGATIVE DIGITS NORTH. MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY A COASTAL STORM TRIES TO APPROACH THE NEW ENGLAND SEABOARD... BUT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING TRANSLATES THE ENTIRE SYSTEM EAST. WE MAY STILL GET SOME PRECIPITATION ON THE COAST... SO FOR NOW HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. AT THE VERY LEAST THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER OVER THE MIDCOAST. RIDGING BUILDS IN VERY QUICKLY BEFORE BEING KICKED OUT ON THURSDAY BY WEAK BROAD TROUGHING ALOFT AND A SUBTLE COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE. EVEN THOUGH WE WILL HAVE REBOUNDED FROM BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES AT THIS POINT... WE WILL STILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW OVER THE ENTIRE REGION EVEN THOUGH SOME PARTS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN TRY TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 30S. SNOW SHOULD END BY FRIDAY NIGHT. && .AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE TO IFR/LIFR TOMORROW MORNING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POOR WITH WIDESPREAD LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE LATE IN THE DAY TOMORROW AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PULLS OFF TO THE NORTH. LONG TERM...LINGERING MVFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS AT KHIE SUNDAY MORNING. VFR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. COASTAL TERMINAL MAY SEE SOME FOG OR LIGHT SHOWERS TUESDAY EVENING. VFR WEDNESDAY. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...AS THE COASTAL LOW DEEPENS TOMORROW WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ALSO. EXPECT GALE WARNINGS EVERYWHERE EXCEPT CASCO BAY BY LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. LONG TERM...WAVES AND WIND GUSTS REMAIN ABOVE SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SEAS AND WINDS ARE CALMER MONDAY BEFORE PICKING UP AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LIKELY TO GALE LEVELS. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST SATURDAY NIGHT FOR MEZ018>021. WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 8 AM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST SATURDAY NIGHT FOR MEZ022>028. NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 10 PM EST SATURDAY FOR NHZ008-009-011-015. WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 10 PM EST SATURDAY FOR NHZ010-012>014. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM SATURDAY TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ153. GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM SATURDAY TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ150>152-154. && $$

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