Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 170125 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 825 PM EST Thu Feb 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure continues to pinwheel away from New Hampshire and western Maine tonight. Some lingering mountain snow showers will be possible overnight and into Friday before high pressure builds into the region to start the weekend. Mostly sunny skies are expected along with a warming trend through the weekend. By Sunday we may even be looking at high temperatures well into the 40s. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/... 830PM UPDATE... Some light snow showers have snuck through the mountains and made their way into parts of central New Hampshire. Have updated precipitation chances a bit to adjust for this. Otherwise no significant changes were needed. Clear sky downwind of the mountains will allow for better cooling there, but winds are expected to keep things mixed tonight. ORIGINAL DISCUSSION... Cyclonic flow around a deep low pressure over the Canadian Maritimes will continue tonight. Downslope flow is helping to dry out areas downwind of the mtns...but upstream lingering low level moisture is keeping clouds and snow showers going. These will linger into the overnight...with a couple inches accumulation possible in the favored NW facing slopes. Boundary layer remaining mixed tonight will keep temps from getting too cold in the wake of the departing low. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/... Dry...cyclonic flow will continue across the area Friday into Friday night. Gusty NW winds possible during the day...with mostly sunny skies. Some high clouds will lift over the area in the evening...and may become a little dense at times downwind of the mtns. This should keep temps up a little Friday night. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... High impact weather: None A high amplitude long wave pattern continues through the start of the weekend with a strong ridge built up through western Canada and a 500mb trough over Quebec and the Northeast. For the start of the weekend the upper level low will slowly move east allowing warmer air to make its way into northern New England. Northwesterly flow around the periphery of the low over the maritimes will continue, with a weak wave moving through overnight Saturday into Sunday. This will result in upslope snow showers for far northern New Hampshire and Western Maine. Have increased the snow amounts above guidance for the weekend. While there won`t be any heavy snow the light showers will continue through most of the weekend and favored locations could see as much as 4-6" in 36 hours. To the south warm air advection will begin bringing temperatures above freezing for the entire forecast area for Saturday. On Sunday that warmth will continue to increase as high temperatures push into the mid 40s south to upper 30s north. Surface high pressure looks to remain in control through the beginning of next week. Forecast confidence diminishes significantly at the start of the week as the hemispheric pattern develops a block in the Atlantic. This puts northern New England in the squeeze between a strong ridge over the great lakes and a trough extending from Labrador to possibly as far south as southern Nova Scotia. Have stuck with a blend of guidance as we wait to see where it evolves. && .AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Short Term...VFR expected tonight outside of some MVFR ceilings early at Whitefield. Northwest winds expected again on Friday gusting to 15 to 25 KT. Long Term...VFR through most of the long term. Northern Mountains including HIE will see some light snow showers in MVFR Saturday afternoon into Sunday. && .MARINE... Short Term...NW flow will continue into Friday. Mainly 25 to 30 kt gusts expected...except for the far Ern waters where a couple 35 kt gusts are possible. I have dropped the gale warnings to SCAs for all waters...with bays expiring early Fri where winds will diminish first. Winds and seas on the outer waters will diminish Fri evening. Long Term... Very quiet stretch on the waters with winds and waves staying below small craft criteria. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Friday for ANZ151-153. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Friday for ANZ150-152-154. && $$ NEAR TERM UPDATE...Kimble SHORT TERM...Legro LONG TERM...Curtis

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