-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
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FXUS61 KGYX 172151 AAA
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Gray ME
551 PM EDT Sun Sep 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds into the region through early next week,
however moist conditions will continue with fog expected each
night and morning. Tropical system Jose will approach New
England by mid week. Canadian high pressure will build into the
region late in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Update...Fog is already moving in more quickly than last
evening...so the main adjustments were to advance timing in the
grids. Will also be monitoring trends for another potential
dense fog advisory...especially with PWM already sitting at 1SM.

Previous discussion...After another very warm day across the
region, the high pressure will finally begin to move east
overnight tonight. The moist airmass which has been in place for
several days will remain in control at the surface and expect
fog to once again form in the mountain valleys and along the
coastlines. Overnight expect dense fog advisories may be needed
again along the coast where onshore flow will help to push the
low cloud deck just offshore back into the region and through
the morning hours on Monday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Monday will see increasing clouds and cooler temperatures as
northern New England begins to get squeezed between Jose
approaching from the south and a trough trying to dig in from
Quebec to the west. We`ll see a few scattered showers possible
in the mountains with showers/drizzle along the coast in onshore
flow.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
12Z operational models, model ensembles and NHC have have
delayed the recurvature at the moment with Jose track crossing
through the southern New England waters and possibly into the
southernmost portions of the Gulf of Maine.

In the dailies, a building swell will begin Tuesday afternoon as
Jose crosses east of the Mid Atlantic coastline as the system
remains trapped underneath a large upper level ridge. Rain will
also overspread the region with considerable differences
remaining with QPF from model to model and run to run. If the
current forecast speed of Jose holds, the system will be nearing
extreme southern portions of the Gulf of Maine late Tuesday
night. This will allow for developing northeast winds and the
onset of precipitation. Not overly confident as to how far the
north travels with northern areas perhaps remaining dry.

Cyclone phase diagrams continue to show Jose remaining mainly a
tropical system with no significant extratropical transition for
the duration of its life cycle.

Jose is currently expected to exit east, southeast through the
Gulf of Maine Wednesday night. Rain will ease towards the coast
and then offshore during that period.

The large, upper level ridge will reestablish itself by Thursday
over the region as Jose does yet another loop well south of our
region. Dry conditions will continue into next weekend along
with mild temperatures as H8 readings top out at +18C.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Short Term...VFR across the region but along the coast a very
low cloud deck, around 400ft,is poised to move back in
overnight. expect conditions to rapidly deteriorate to IFR after
sunset with LIFR likely for coastal sites. In the interior the
moisture will still be in place but will take a bit longer to
take hold with IFR fog in the CT River valley expected to form
after midnight. Conditions will improve to vfr by mid morning
Monday for the interior but expect the coast to stay at MVFR or
lower through late monday and into Tuesday as clouds and rain
from Jose approach the region Monday night into Tuesday.

Long Term...IFR/LIFR ceilings overspread much of coastal and
southern interior zones Tuesday and will persist through
Wednesday morning. Depending on the exact track of Jose,
conditions may begin improving beginning late Wednesday. VFR
conditions expected Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term... Quiet waters in term of winds and seas through the
first 36 hours, however dense fog and overcast conditions will
remain throughout the next few days.

Long Term...Building, long period swells will approach the
coast beginning late Tuesday as Jose moves along the southern
New England waters. Northeast winds will be on the increase
Tuesday night into Wednesday as well, when tropical storm
conditions are possible.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Hurricane Jose will cross the southern New England waters
Tuesday night into Wednesday. This will result in long period
swell. NART wave and in-house wave runup matrices suggest there
will be an increased risk for beach erosion and splash-over
during this period. For now, the storm surge guidance (ESTOFS) is
only indicating about a half foot of storm surge. ETSS appears
to be overly conservative for this system with little or no
impact. However with high astronomical tides and a contribution
in water levels due to wave setup, expect there could be
pockets of minor coastal flooding.

Dangerous rip currents are also possible and high surf
advisories may be needed for the mid-week period.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Legro