-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KGYX 240254
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
954 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THIS GIVES WAY TO LOW
PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST. THIS LOW WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
SNOW SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE EXITING INTO THE
MARITIMES SATURDAY NIGHT. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK SUNDAY ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND QUICKLY DEVELOPS
WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. A SHOT OF COLDER AIR FOLLOWS BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM...AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
955 PM UPDATE: NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

715 PM UPDATE: QUIET NIGHT AND THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST ON TRACK. NO
NEED FOR ANY CHANGES TO FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
FAIRLY QUIET NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL BEGIN TO GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS BY
SUNRISE TOMORROW.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
BY MORNING AND THEN CROSSES JUST INSIDE THE BENCHMARK BY LATE
MORNING. PRECIPITATION SHIELD BY THIS TIME SHOULD BE REACHING INTO
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S. SNOW
SHOULD BEGIN FALLING OVER THIS SAME AREA AROUND THIS TIME. AS THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DEEPEN PRECIPITATION WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. STRONG DYNAMICS SHOULD PRODUCE SNOWFALL RATES OF
AN INCH AN HOUR OR MORE FOR A SHORT TIME. THE LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY
EXITS INTO THE MARITIMES DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH
PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END.

THE MODELS ARE IN SURPRISINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM.
THE NAM IS A BIT COLDER IN THE MID LEVELS AND PRODUCES A LITTLE
BIT MORE SNOW...AS DOES THE EURO. EXPECT THIS TO BE ALMOST
EXCLUSIVELY AN ALL SNOW EVENT. EXCEPTIONS COULD BE NEAR THE COAST
OVER THE MIDCOAST OF MAINE AND OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST NEW
HAMPSHIRE WHERE A MIX OF SLEET AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE. HAVE HOISTED
WINTER STORM WARNINGS ALONG THE COAST WITH ADVISORIES JUST INLAND.
IF THE TRACK OF THE STORM WERE TO CHANGE EVEN A LITTLE BIT THE
SOLUTION WOULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS FAST AND MERIDIONAL THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. SEVERAL SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVES DIG INTO THE DEEP SOUTH AND MOVE OFFSHORE BEFORE
TURNING NORTH. AT THE SAME TIME... SPOKES OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE POLAR VORTEX DIP DOWN AT TIMES TO INTERACT WITH THESE
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES. THIS RESULTS IN A COUPLE DISTURBANCES
THIS WEEK THAT WILL AFFECT NEW ENGLAND.

MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT SUNDAY... RESULTING
IN A SPAN OF COLDER WEATHER. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS NORTH TO THE TEENS SOUTH ON TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE ZERO OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN AND IN
THE NEGATIVE DIGITS NORTH.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY A COASTAL STORM TRIES TO APPROACH THE
NEW ENGLAND SEABOARD... BUT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING TRANSLATES
THE ENTIRE SYSTEM EAST. WE MAY STILL GET SOME PRECIPITATION ON THE
COAST... SO FOR NOW HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. AT THE VERY
LEAST THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER
OVER THE MIDCOAST. RIDGING BUILDS IN VERY QUICKLY BEFORE BEING
KICKED OUT ON THURSDAY BY WEAK BROAD TROUGHING ALOFT AND A SUBTLE
COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE. EVEN THOUGH WE WILL HAVE REBOUNDED FROM
BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES AT THIS POINT... WE WILL STILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW OVER THE ENTIRE REGION EVEN
THOUGH SOME PARTS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN TRY TO WARM INTO THE LOWER
30S. SNOW SHOULD END BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE TO IFR/LIFR
TOMORROW MORNING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POOR
WITH WIDESPREAD LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE LATE IN THE DAY TOMORROW AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PULLS OFF TO THE NORTH.

LONG TERM...LINGERING MVFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS AT KHIE
SUNDAY MORNING. VFR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. COASTAL TERMINAL MAY
SEE SOME FOG OR LIGHT SHOWERS TUESDAY EVENING. VFR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...AS THE COASTAL LOW DEEPENS TOMORROW WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE ALSO. EXPECT GALE WARNINGS EVERYWHERE EXCEPT CASCO BAY
BY LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...WAVES AND WIND GUSTS REMAIN ABOVE SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SEAS AND WINDS ARE CALMER MONDAY BEFORE
PICKING UP AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LIKELY TO GALE
LEVELS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST
     SATURDAY NIGHT FOR MEZ018>021.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 8 AM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST
     SATURDAY NIGHT FOR MEZ022>028.
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 10 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
     NHZ008-009-011-015.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 10 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
     NHZ010-012>014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM SATURDAY TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ153.
     GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM SATURDAY TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ150>152-154.

&&

$$