Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 261855 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 255 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MAY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE THREAT OF A FEW SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.
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&& .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
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ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TO THE EAST OF A SURFACE FRONT WHICH STRETCHES NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS FAR WESTERN MAINE. WITHIN THIS ONSHORE FLOW A WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS IS TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. BIGGEST THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE HEAVY RAIN AS STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO TRACK OVER THE SAME AREAS FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THIS EVENING AS THE AIR MASS SLOWLY GETS PUSHED AWAY BY THE FRONT. COULD SEE A RETURN OF SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO THE MIDCOAST REGION BEFORE DRY AIR MOVES IN LATER TONIGHT. A LITTLE DRIER AIR WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE LOW 60S TO UPPER 50S. TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT ACROSS NEW HAMPSHIRE... DEWPOINTS ARE DROPPING CONSIDERABLY AND HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE NOTICEABLY LESS NOW THAN YESTERDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO COOL OFF TONIGHT INTO THE 50S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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DRIER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. EXPECT A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUN WITH SOME CLOUDS AND A SHOWER OR TWO BUILDING IN THE MOUNTAINS AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THE AREA. TEMPERATURES REACH THE 70S FOR MOST AREAS BEFORE DROPPING INTO THE 50S THURSDAY NIGHT. NORTHERN VALLEYS WILL DROP INTO THE 40S IN THE DRY AIR.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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A FAIRLY QUIET EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS TO BE IN THE CARDS WITH TROUGHING EARLY IN THE PERIOD BEING REPLACED BY DEEP LAYER RIDGING. IN A NUTSHELL...A RATHER QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE MEAN RIDGING...MUCH LIKE IN REX BLOCK FASHION...MAY AFFECT OUR REGION WITH SOME SHOWERS LATE IN THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...MODEL AGREEMENT IS NOT QUITE THERE ON THIS FEATURE DUE TO THE BLOCKY PATTERN. IT COULD VERY WELL END UP BEING DRY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEREAFTER...AND PERHAPS THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER...LOOKS LIKE A VERY WARM TO PERHAPS HOT PATTERN EMERGES AS CENTRAL US RIDGING SHIFTS EASTWARD. THIS ALL BARRING A PATTERN SHIFT OR A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT OR TWO PUSHING IN.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING FOR MOST OF THE AREA EXCEPT FOR ROCKLAND WHERE LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PERSIST AND KEEP LIFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO WORSEN EVEN MORE AT ROCKLAND THIS EVENING BEFORE DRIER AIR TRIES TO ERODE THESE CLOUDS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. COULD SEE SOME FOG IN THE NEW HAMPSHIRE VALLEYS AS WELL BUT OTHERWISE IT SHOULD REMAIN VFR. LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH SOME LOCALLY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE IN THE NORMAL VALLEY LOCATIONS AT NIGHT.
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&& .MARINE...
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SHORT TERM...COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS TONIGHT WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND IT. EXPECT WIND SPEEDS TO REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT. LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
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&& .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...KIMBLE SHORT TERM...KIMBLE LONG TERM...EKSTER

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