Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 172151 AAA AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Gray ME 551 PM EDT Sun Sep 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure builds into the region through early next week, however moist conditions will continue with fog expected each night and morning. Tropical system Jose will approach New England by mid week. Canadian high pressure will build into the region late in the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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Update...Fog is already moving in more quickly than last evening...so the main adjustments were to advance timing in the grids. Will also be monitoring trends for another potential dense fog advisory...especially with PWM already sitting at 1SM. Previous discussion...After another very warm day across the region, the high pressure will finally begin to move east overnight tonight. The moist airmass which has been in place for several days will remain in control at the surface and expect fog to once again form in the mountain valleys and along the coastlines. Overnight expect dense fog advisories may be needed again along the coast where onshore flow will help to push the low cloud deck just offshore back into the region and through the morning hours on Monday.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Monday will see increasing clouds and cooler temperatures as northern New England begins to get squeezed between Jose approaching from the south and a trough trying to dig in from Quebec to the west. We`ll see a few scattered showers possible in the mountains with showers/drizzle along the coast in onshore flow. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... 12Z operational models, model ensembles and NHC have have delayed the recurvature at the moment with Jose track crossing through the southern New England waters and possibly into the southernmost portions of the Gulf of Maine. In the dailies, a building swell will begin Tuesday afternoon as Jose crosses east of the Mid Atlantic coastline as the system remains trapped underneath a large upper level ridge. Rain will also overspread the region with considerable differences remaining with QPF from model to model and run to run. If the current forecast speed of Jose holds, the system will be nearing extreme southern portions of the Gulf of Maine late Tuesday night. This will allow for developing northeast winds and the onset of precipitation. Not overly confident as to how far the north travels with northern areas perhaps remaining dry. Cyclone phase diagrams continue to show Jose remaining mainly a tropical system with no significant extratropical transition for the duration of its life cycle. Jose is currently expected to exit east, southeast through the Gulf of Maine Wednesday night. Rain will ease towards the coast and then offshore during that period. The large, upper level ridge will reestablish itself by Thursday over the region as Jose does yet another loop well south of our region. Dry conditions will continue into next weekend along with mild temperatures as H8 readings top out at +18C. && .AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Short Term...VFR across the region but along the coast a very low cloud deck, around 400ft,is poised to move back in overnight. expect conditions to rapidly deteriorate to IFR after sunset with LIFR likely for coastal sites. In the interior the moisture will still be in place but will take a bit longer to take hold with IFR fog in the CT River valley expected to form after midnight. Conditions will improve to vfr by mid morning Monday for the interior but expect the coast to stay at MVFR or lower through late monday and into Tuesday as clouds and rain from Jose approach the region Monday night into Tuesday. Long Term...IFR/LIFR ceilings overspread much of coastal and southern interior zones Tuesday and will persist through Wednesday morning. Depending on the exact track of Jose, conditions may begin improving beginning late Wednesday. VFR conditions expected Thursday. && .MARINE... Short Term... Quiet waters in term of winds and seas through the first 36 hours, however dense fog and overcast conditions will remain throughout the next few days. Long Term...Building, long period swells will approach the coast beginning late Tuesday as Jose moves along the southern New England waters. Northeast winds will be on the increase Tuesday night into Wednesday as well, when tropical storm conditions are possible. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Hurricane Jose will cross the southern New England waters Tuesday night into Wednesday. This will result in long period swell. NART wave and in-house wave runup matrices suggest there will be an increased risk for beach erosion and splash-over during this period. For now, the storm surge guidance (ESTOFS) is only indicating about a half foot of storm surge. ETSS appears to be overly conservative for this system with little or no impact. However with high astronomical tides and a contribution in water levels due to wave setup, expect there could be pockets of minor coastal flooding. Dangerous rip currents are also possible and high surf advisories may be needed for the mid-week period. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Legro

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