Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KGYX 040242 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 1042 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. A WARM MOIST AND UNSTABLE SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS TOWARD MIDWEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... 1040 PM UPDATE...NOT A LOT OF CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST. JUST A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER OVERNIGHT BASED ON LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA. 625 PM UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST. CLEAR SKIES WILL BE THE RULE THIS EVENING ALONG WITH DIMINISHING WINDS. PREVIOUSLY... HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST TONIGHT ALLOWING A LIGHT RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR INTO EARLY THIS EVENING BUT THEN OVERRUNNING HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA BY LATER IN THE EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER TONIGHT DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND ALSO A DEVELOPING LIGHT SOUTH FLOW. USED A BLEND OF MODELS FOR THE OVERNIGHT LOWS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... A PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY. WITHIN THIS TROUGH THERE IS A NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM OF SYSTEMS. WITH THE NORTHERN SYSTEM THE MOUNTAINS OF ME/NH COULD SEE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS SAT NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. REGARDING THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM...MODELS GENERALLY ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT IT WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH SOUTH KEEPING A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW AND ITS PRECIPITATION SHIELD SOUTH OF THE AREA. FOR OUR FORECAST AREA THIS MEANS THAT ONLY EXTREME SOUTHERN AND COASTAL AREAS OF NH AND ME WILL HAVE A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. BY EARLY EVENING ANY LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE OFFSHORE. IN ALL CONSIDERATION...MODELS AGREE THAT THE TIMING FOR THE 4TH OF JULY FESTIVITIES SATURDAY EVENING SHOULD BE DRY WITH LIGHT WINDS AS THE SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITS. EVEN THE WETTER AND FURTHEST NORTH GFS MODEL HAS ANY AND ALL SHOWERS OFFSHORE BY EARLY EVENING. MODELS WERE ALL CLOSE ON TEMPERATURES AND POPS SAT AND SAT NIGHT SO A BLENDED SOLUTION SEEMED REASONABLE. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... EURO/GFS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A STRENGTHENING OF THE 500 MB WRN ATLANTIC RIDGE ONCE THE WEAK TROUGH MOVES OUT SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WOULD LEAD TO MORE HUMID AND SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN THRU NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPS RUNNING NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE. SUNDAY WILL FEATURE PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE MORNING...WITH A FEW SHRA OR A TSRA MAINLY IN THE NRN ZONES...BUT COULD COULD SEE SOME POP UP ACROSS THE KENNEBEC AND PENOBSCOT VLYS MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON AS WELL. BY MID-AFTERNOON...THE TROUGH AXIS SWIGS THRU AND NW FLOW ALOFT SHOULD START TO DRY AND CLEAR THINGS OUT. MON INTO MOST OF TUE LOOKS DRY AS RIDGING MOVES THRU WITH RH RISING ON MONDAY...AND TDS CREEPING INTO THE LOW 60S BY TUE /AND MAYBE MID-UPPR 60S BY MID WEEK/. COULD SEE A FEW SHRA/TSRA LATE TUE IN NH. BEST CHC FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE WED AND WED NIGHT AS 500 MB PASSES N AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT THRU THE REGION. THE 12Z EURO WANTS HANG UP THE FRONT TO OUR S AS A WAVE TRACKS ALONG IT...WHICH WOULD MEAN CHC OF SHOWERS ON THU TOO...BUT THIS IS TOO FINE A POINT TO HOOK ONTO AT THIS TIME. && .AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN AND COASTAL AREAS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS CAN`T BE RULED OUT BUT WILL NOT HAVE MUCH IF ANY IMPACT ON LOWERING CONDITIONS. LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR SUN THRU TUE...WITH SOME VLY FOG POSSIBLE SUN AND MON NIGHT. WED COULD SEE SOME SCT SHRA/TSRA. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE LEADS TO LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AFTER GUSTS AROUND 20 KT SUBSIDE BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. LONG TERM...WINDS/SEAS REMAIN BLO SCA CRITERIA SUN THRU WED. WILL SEE A SURGE IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TUE INTO WED...WHICH WILL BRINGS WIND TO NEAR SCA. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...EKSTER

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.