Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 130115 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 815 PM EST Thu Jan 12 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will cross the region tonight. High pressure will build in from the west Friday through Saturday. High pressure will shift offshore Saturday night and a weak cold front will drop south through the area early Sunday. High pressure will build in behind the front Sunday afternoon through Sunday night. High pressure will remain over the region through Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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805 pm update: Dropped all pops to eliminate showers for all southern and central areas. Radar shows just a few lingering showers left in the mountains. Continuing the patchy fog over central and eastern areas of Maine as mixing and drier air mass with lowering dewpoints should commence over NH in the next hour or two and work into ME by midnight. Temps near their daily highs for the day with some close to records for the day at this time. Temps will begin falling though in the next several hours from west to east as cooler air works rapidly east behind the trof and surface cold front. 630 pm update: The bulk of showers are currently moving offshore. Drier air in lower to mid levels upstream quickly spreading east. Saturated low level moisture still occurring in parts of central and eastern Maine producing patchy dense fog but expect this moisture to quickly get mixed out as south winds become southwest and then west over the next 3-6 hours. Models and trends all agree on very dry air to work across all areas beginning around midnight. Made some adjustments to reflect current conditions of clouds and scattered showers but with rapid clearing from west to east around or shortly after midnight as winds slowly shift to the west with the passage of an upper trof and associated cold front. previous discussion: A cold front will gradually push southeast through the region this evening. Fairly extensive area of light to moderate rain currently pushing into the region from the southwest ahead of this boundary and should last through the early evening hours. Expect shower activity to gradually taper off during the late evening with the front pushing offshore around midnight. Behind the front expect clearing skies downwind of the mountains as downslope winds kick in behind the front. Looking for variable clouds in the north with a few lingering snow showers. Lows overnight will range through the 20s north and lower to mid 30s south.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Strong and gusty northwest winds will usher in much colder air into the region on Friday as high pressure builds in from the west. Looking for variable cloudiness in the mountains with perhaps a stray flurry. Elsewhere skies will be mostly sunny. Expect high temps to be reached during the late morning before falling in the afternoon. Highs will range through the 20s north and 30s south. Winds will drop off Friday evening as high pressure continues to build in from the west. Should see good radiational cooling overnight and have gone a few degrees below what the coldest guidance was offering. Expect lows of 5 to 10 below north and below to 5 above south. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Surface high pressure settles off the Mid Atlantic coastline Saturday. This will be followed by the passage of a strong cold front late Saturday night and early Sunday. Have deviated from superblend and increased pops over the higher terrain due to a favorable upslope northwest flow and strong cold air advection. Otherwise, mainly dry conditions will continue outside the mountains as another polar high pressure system builds south from Canada and becomes situated over Maine Sunday night. Radiational cooling may allow for temperatures dropping below current forecast guidance with readings below zero possible in the north. Have dropped readings a few degrees as this appears to be a target of opportunity. The surface ridge will slowly exit to the east by Tuesday. This will allow for yet another area of low pressure to pass well to our west, bringing mostly rain to the region the midweek next week. && .AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Short Term...Areas of mvfr/ifr ceilings this evening...improving to VFR after midnight. VFR Friday through Saturday. Long Term...VFR conditions gradually lower to IFR by late Tuesday into Tuesday night and Wednesday. && .MARINE... Short Term...Continuing SCA`s for outer waters and bays overnight with a Gale watch for Friday. Long Term...SCA winds expected on Saturday with Gale force winds possible by Wednesday of next week. This will be associated with strong southerly winds with low pressure passing over the Great Lakes Region. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Friday for ANZ150>154. Gale Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for ANZ150>152-154. && $$ NEAR TERM...Marine SHORT TERM...Marine

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