Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 231317 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 917 AM EDT SAT APR 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL STALL OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY. SEVERAL WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY WILL SUPPRESS THE FRONT SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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915 AM...UPDATES TO WIND/T/TD...MOSTLY TO BETTER HIT THE WIND GUST TO 20-25 MPH...AS WE SHOULD MIX DEEP ENOUGH FOR THIS BY MIDDAY. TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED UP JUST A BIT. SKIES CLEARING OUT QUICKLY AND SHOULD CLEAR OUT OF THE MTNS LATER THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH MAY HAVE TO WAIT TO EARLY AFTERNOON TO MIX OUT THE STRATUS IN THE NW FLOW N OF THE MTNS AND THE FAR NRN CT VLY. PREVIOUSLY...LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PUSHING OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY IN EAST CENTRAL MAINE IS PUSHING OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA AND ASIDE FROM A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLY BRUSHING THE COAST THROUGH DAYBREAK NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH MORE PRECIP THIS MORNING. SAT PICS SHOWING EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER EXTENDING UPSTREAM INTO SOUTHERN CANADA AND EXPECT THIS MOISTURE TO HANG AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING BEFORE CLEARING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON. COLD AIR WILL BE LAGGING BEHIND THE FRONT SO EXPECT TEMPS TO TOP OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN WARMER SOUTHERN ZONES. LOOKING FOR HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 50S IN THE NORTH. AS CLOUDS CLEAR AND MIXING GETS GOING...EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS TO PICK UP AND BECOME GUSTY AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... TONIGHT LOOKING MOSTLY CLEAR AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. NORTHERLY GRADIENT WILL HANG ON OVERNIGHT KEEPING A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW GOING. LOOKING FOR MOST MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TO DECOUPLE AT SOME POINT AND THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S IN THE NORTH. ELSEWHERE LOWS WILL BOTTOM IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. ASIDE FROM A FEW HIGH CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON...SHOULD SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUN WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS. HIGHS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 50S NORTH AND UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 SOUTH. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... ON MONDAY A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SHARPEN OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TRIGGERING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTH WITH A SNOW FOR THE MOUNTAINS INITIALLY. ONCE TEMPERATURES WARM DURING THE DAY A CHANGE TO ALL RAIN IS EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S NORTH IN THE COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT...TO THE MID 50S AND LOWER 60S SOUTH OF IT. THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH AND STALLS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE WAVES DEVELOP ALONG IT. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TUESDAY WITH THE BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY. THE HEAVIEST QPF WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN NH AND SOUTHWESTERN MAINE WHERE THREE- QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN IS FORECAST TO FALL MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE AMOUNT THAT ULTIMATELY FALLS WILL DEPEND EXACTLY WHERE THE FRONT STALLS...FOR EXAMPLE IF THE BOUNDARY SHIFTS OFFSHORE WE COULD GET MUCH LESS. TUESDAY WILL BE COOLER AS COOLER AIR FILTERS IN FROM CANADA...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S AREA WIDE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 20S NORTH TO LOWER AND MID 30S SOUTH. WEDNESDAY WILL BE SUNNY AND WARMER GAINING A FEW DEGREES ON TUESDAY. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SLIGHTLY AND HOVER IN THE 50S AND 60S FOR HIGHS...CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD IN FROM CANADA... BUT THE BOUNDARY TO OUT SOUTH REMAINS ACTIVE WITH ADDITIONAL MESOLOWS DEVELOPING ALONG IT... KEEPING THE HIGH FROM MAKING MUCH HEADWAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM OF CONCERN WILL EJECT SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE. THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT OVER HOW FAR NORTH THIS LATEST WAVE IS AND THUS HOW MUCH IT IMPACTS NEW ENGLAND. FOR NOW WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN PLACE. && .AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SHORT TERM...AREAS MVFR CEILINGS IN THE NORTH AND CONNECTICUT VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING...OTHER VFR TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. LONG TERM...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AT MHT/CON/LEB/PSM TUESDAY WITH MVFR CONDITIONS AT PWM/AUG/RKD/HIE...DEPENDING ON WHERE A COLD FRONT STALLS. VFR PREVAILS WEDNESDAY. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...EXPECT LIMITED MIXING WITH WARM TEMPS AND CLOUD COVER OVER THE WATERS TODAY WITH WINDS GENERALLY REMAINING BELOW SCA LEVELS. WINDS WILL PICK UP TONIGHT AS NORTHERLY GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT AND COLD AIR ADVECTION INCREASES MIXING. HAVE ISSUED SCA`S FOR THE OUTER WATERS OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. LONG TERM...WAVES AND WINDS WILL STAY BELOW CRITERIA. HOWEVER A BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE FOR SEVERAL DAYS MAKING FOR SHOWERY AND FOGGY SAILING. && .FIRE WEATHER... HAVE ISSUED RED FLAG WARNING FOR SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW HAMPSHIRE AND ADJACENT SOUTHWEST MAINE FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MIN RH VALUES WILL DIP TO 25 TO 35 PERCENT AND WILL COMBINE WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO ENHANCE FIRE DANGER IN THESE AREAS. EXPECT FIRE DANGER TO REMAIN HIGH ON SUNDAY AS MINIMUM RH VALUES DIP EVEN LOWER INTO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE...ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MEZ012-018- 019-023-024. NH...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NHZ003>015. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...CEMPA/SINSABAUGH SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION... MARINE... FIRE WEATHER...

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