Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 061623 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 1223 PM EDT SUN JUL 6 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE AREA INTO MIDWEEK BEFORE A STRONGER COLD FRONT LOOKS TO PASS ACROSS THE REGION SOMETIME WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... UPDATED AGAIN TO ADJUST SKY COVER PER LATEST SATELLITE LOOP. SLGT ADJUSTMENT TO BACK OFF SLIGHTLY ON CHC OF PRCP THIS AFTERNOON WITH ANY ISOLD -SHRA SKIMMING ACROSS OUR NRN MOST AREA DUE TO AN UPPER LVL IMPULSE SLIDING BY IN THE BROAD UPPER LVL W NW FLOW BACKING TO THE W SW. THIS IMPULSE IS ALSO PRODUCING SOME MID AND HIGH LVL CLOUDINESS OVER FAR NRN NH THRU ALL BUT EXTREME SW ME. EXPECT VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS TO CONT THRU THE DAY... ESPECIALLY OVER THESE AREAS DUE TO MORE UPSTREAM CLOUDINESS. GUSTY W SW WINDS DEVELOP AS HIGH PRES APPROACHES FROM THE W BUT WILL HEAD WELL TO OUR S CREATING THE W SW FLOW AROUND THE CIRCULATION. HAVE BUMPED UP WINDS AND WAVES IN THE LAKES FCST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. ALSO UPDATED SUMMITS FCST MAINLY TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME COOLER TEMPS AT MWN. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... PARTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT WITH PATCHY LATE NIGHT VALLEY FOG AS SURFACE WINDS DECOUPLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S. A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW ON MONDAY WILL INTRODUCE WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S. AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT COUPLED WITH SURFACE HEATING WITH RESULT IN AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR CONVECTION AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE DAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE BY EVENING AS CAPES APPROACH 1500 J/KG. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA AS WELL. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROBABLY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD MONDAY EVENING...THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WEAK TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TUESDAY. THIS COULD RESULT IN WIDELY SCT SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY...BUT COVERAGE LOOKS TO REMAIN QUITE LIMITED. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS PERSIST. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH DOES MOVE JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THIS MAY SPARK MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THEREAFTER...FROM WED THROUGH SAT...MODEL DIFFER IN TIMING OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSAGES AND THEREFORE DIFFER ON CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION EACH DAY. SO...WE CAN/T RULE OUT WIDELY SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...THERE SEEMS TO BE A GENERAL CONSENSUS THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LATE THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...VFR...WITH BRIEF LCL MVFR IN VALLEY F POSSIBLE LATE TNGT TO JUST AFTER DAYBREAK MONDAY. SCT SHRA/TSTMS SPREADING NW TO SE THRU INTO THE FCST AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON WHICH MAY LOWER TO MVFR OR POSSIBLY EVEN IFR. LONG TERM...OTHER THAN LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS IN WDLY SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO MIDWEEK. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...UPDATED WITH NO REAL CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FCST. ALREADY ADDED OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT OVER THE OUTER WATERS. NOT EXPECTING GUSTS TO BE FREQUENT ENOUGH FOR AN SCA...BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE. WINDS AND SEAS STAY JUST BELOW SCA LEVELS TNGT BUT MAY REACH SCA LEVELS ON MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FNT. LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS WILL PROBABLY PERSIST MON AND TUE WITH A GRADUAL REDUCTION IN SEAS THEREAFTER. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$

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