Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 120143 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 945 PM EDT THU SEP 11 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING....AND SHOWERS WILL END TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN SUNDAY AND MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AROUND TUESDAY AS A FRONT WORKS ACROSS THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 945 PM UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING EASTWARD ON THE COASTAL PLAIN AND WILL BE OFFSHORE BY 11 PM OR SO. CONTINUED CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR AT LEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES AND COASTAL PLAIN AS DOWNSLOPING FLOW STRENGTHENS. 610 PM UPDATE...COLD FRONT CURRENTLY CROSSING THE CT RIVER AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD THIS EVENING AND OFF THE COAST IN A FEW HOURS. FOR THE MOST PART THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS ENDED AND MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL THIN AS WELL...ESPECIALLY AREAS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. PREVIOUSLY... SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES QUITE A BIT OF CU BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT THAT ONCE WE LOSE DIURNAL HEATING THAT CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD OCCUR FAIRLY QUICKLY. QUICK ENOUGH THAT WE SHOULD SEE SOME PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG DEVELOP IN FAVORED VALLEY LOCATIONS. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL STILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. AS WE BEGIN TO GET SOME DECENT MIXING EXPECT SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE MORNING. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL AID IN MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO THE SURFACE. THE COLD AIR BOTTOMS OUT QUICKLY THOUGH SO EXPECT GUSTY WINDS TO SHUT DOWN AROUND NOON OR SHORTLY AFTER. CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL QUICKLY INTO THE 40S AT MOST LOCATIONS IN THE CWA. WITH THE FORECAST OF INCREASED AURORAL ACTIVITY TOMORROW NIGHT AND CLEAR SKIES...THERE COULD BE A GOOD CHANCE TO SEE A NICE AURORA BOREALIS EVENT. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... INITIALLY...DECENT 500 MB WAVE LIFTS TO OUR N SATURDAY...WHICH WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT. LOOK FOR THE THREAT OF SHRA BEGINNING SAT AFTERNOON IN THE N...WITH THE BEST CHC OF SHRA ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA SAT NIGHT. BEST DYNAMICS LOOK TO STAY WELL N OF THE CWA...SO NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN A ROUND OR TWO OF SHRA WITH THE SYSTEM. AFTER THIS...LARGE SCALE AND BROAD TROUGH AT 500 MB SETTLES IN ACROSS ERN NOAM AS BLOCKING DEVELOPS OVER THE N ATLANTIC AND THE OVER WRN NOAM. CLOSED LOW CENTER OF THE TROUGH GENERALLY REMAINS WELL TO OUR N THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT STILL...THE PRESENCE OF THE TROUGH WILL LOCK OUT ANY WARMER AIR AND KEEP TEMPS NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. A COLD-SEASON TYPE WAVE DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK AND TRAVELS AROUND THE BASE OF THE 500MB TROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK PRODUCING WEAK SFC LOW WHICH TRAVELS S AND E OF THE AREA AROUND TUESDAY. THE WAVE ITSELF SHOULD PRODUCE SOME SHRA...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH PROGRESSION AND POTENTIAL TRACK OF THE OF THE SFC LOW AS TO WHETHER A STEADIER RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE. MAY SEE A BRIEF SHOT OF VERY COOL AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM BY WED OR THU OF NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SHORT TERM...IMPROVING CONDITIONS AT MOST LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE VALLEY LOCATIONS WHERE RADIATIONAL FOG COULD KEEP IFR...AND EVEN SOME LIFR...CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT. LONG TERM... MAINLY VFR WITH POTENTIAL FOR VALLEY FOG MOST NIGHTS. A FEW SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS LATE SATURDAY AND SAT NIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA IS POSSIBLE ON TUE. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...SEAS CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE OUTER WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL REMAIN HIGH OVERNIGHT. WILL LEAVE THE SCA IN PLACE FOR TONIGHT. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TOMORROW MORNING MAY KEEP AN SCA IN PLACE FOR WINDS. WILL LET THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT MAKE THE FINAL CALL. LONG TERM... SEAS/WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDITIONS THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154. && $$ NEAR TERM UPDATE...MLE SHORT TERM...POHL LONG TERM...CEMPA AVIATION...CEMPA/POHL MARINE...CEMPA/POHL

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