Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 152054 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 354 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON TUESDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AND WILL BRING A ROUND OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. GUSTY NW WINDS FOLLOW BEHIND EXITING LOW PRESSURE FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TOWARD THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO A POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM WHICH WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
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DO NOT EXPECT CLOUDS CLEARING LINE TO CHANGE MUCH OVERNIGHT...AS SFC RIDGE HOLDS IN PLACE RIGHT ALONG THE ME COAST. COULD SEE SOME STRATUS START TO DEVELOP WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAD TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO MACHINE MINS...AND FOUND THAT NAMDNG MAY HAVE THE BEST HANDLE WITH CLOUDS HANGING IN THE N...KEEPING MINS UP...AND CLEAR SKIES IN THE S ALLOWING FOR BETTER RAD COOLING.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE...WILL SEE MORE LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOP AND STRATUS WILL BECOME MORE PREVALENT. COMBINE THIS WITH CLOUDS MOVING FROM THE W IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW TO THE W...AND LOOK FOR M/CDY SKIES EARLY AND OVERCAST BY AFTERNOON. COULD SEE SOME DZ OR LIGHT RA DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON...RIGHT ON THE COAST...OR PERHAPS IN THE SE UPSLOPE AREAS INLAND. WEAKLY CLOSED OFF 500MB LOW TRACKS WNW FROM THE GREAT LAKES...WITH WARM FRONT CROSS THE REGION FROM THE SW TUE NIGHT INTO WED. SHOULD SEE ENOUGH COOLING FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHT FZRA IN INLAND AREAS LATE TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED MORNING...WITH JUST RAIN ON THE COAST. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF...A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS GENERALLY. SHOULD WARM UP ABV ALMOST EVERYWHERE BY MIDDAY...WHICH WILL MAKE THIS SIMILAR TO RECENT SYSTEMS THAT HAVE MOVED THRU OVER THE LAST COUPLE WEEKS. WITH COOLER AIR MOVING ALOFT...RAIN WILL CHANGE TO LIGHT SN IN THE N LATE IN THE DAY...ALTHOUGH NOT MUCH ACCUMULATION DURING THE DAYLIGHT.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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UPPER LOW PRES DRIFTS TO A POSITION IN NRN ME ON THU. COOL...MOIST...CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE LOW CENTER WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND SHSN FOR THE MTNS. USED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND WPC QPF WITH TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT. COULD BE A LONGER DURATION LIGHT TO MODERATE SNWFL EVENT FOR THE MTNS...GIVEN THIS CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORABLE LOW POSITION. SENSIBLE WX SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET FOLLOWING THE EXIT OF THIS SYSTEM. HIGH PRES BUILDS TOWARDS THE AREA AND HOLDS THRU AT LEAST SAT. THEN THINGS BEGIN LOOKING FAIRLY INTERESTING SUN INTO MON. A S/WV TROF MOVING THRU THE SRN STREAM WILL LIFT UP THE EAST COAST AND DEVELOP S OF NEW ENGLAND. ATTM THE ECMWF IS ROBUST WITH SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT...AS IS THE CMC...THOUGH JUST TOO FAR S TO BRING APPRECIABLE QPF TO NRN NEW ENGLAND. THE GFS IS WEAK AND PROGRESSIVE. HOWEVER THIS IS A TYPICAL GFS BIAS AT THIS TIME RANGE. IN ADDITION...THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE MEAN MSLP IS NW OF THE OPERATIONAL RUNS OF BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF. THE GEFS MEAN IS SE OF OTHER GUIDANCE STILL...BUT HAS SIGNIFICANT SPREAD NW OF THE LOW TRACK. THE ECMWF EPS MEAN IS ACTUALLY A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM FOR AT LEAST THE SRN HALF OF THE CWFA. MEAN QPF FOR KPWM IS ROUGHLY 0.50 INCHES. ATTM THERE ARE SIGNS POINTING TOWARDS THE OPERATIONAL RUNS TRENDING NWD OVER THE COMING DAYS. AS SUCH...INCREASED POP SLIGHTLY TOWARDS THE UPPER HALF OF CHANCE. THE OPERATIONAL RUNS ARE WEIGHTING THINGS TOWARDS ZERO POP...SO AS A NOD TO THE ENSEMBLES I USED MORE OF THE WPC POP FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. PLENTY COULD CHANGE GIVEN THAT THIS IS 6 DAYS OUT AT A MINIMUM...SO STAY TUNED FOR THE LATEST DEVELOPMENTS.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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SHORT TERM...MVFR CIGS AT KLEB/KHIE THROUGH TONIGHT...MAY SEE A PERIOD OF VFR THIS EVE...BUT NOT HIGHLY CONFIDENT. SHOULD SEE MVFR CIGS DEVELOP AT ALL TERMINALS TOWARD DAYBREAK OR WED MORNING...SHIFT TO IFR TUE AFTERNOON...WITH FACER OR RA TUE NIGHT. LONG TERM...WLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL CLEAR OUT COASTAL PLAIN FAIRLY QUICKLY THU...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR. LINGERING IFR IS EXPECTED IN THE MTNS...WHERE SHSN WILL CONTINUE INTO FRI. OTHERWISE MVFR OR VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND.
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&& .MARINE...
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SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS. LONG TERM...GUSTY WLY FLOW EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS THU INTO FRI. SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY.
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&& .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...CEMPA SHORT TERM...CEMPA LONG TERM...LEGRO

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