Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 222348 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 648 PM EST THU JAN 22 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE DELMARVA FRIDAY NIGHT THEN RACE NORTHEASTWARD...GRAZING THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO PASS WELL TO OUR SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... 645 PM UPDATE: SKIES CLEAR ACROSS MAINE BUT STILL SOME MID CLOUDS ACROSS NH, SO MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY GRIDS. INPUT LATEST OBS DATA AND ONLY VERY MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES AS WELL...OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: A FEW CLOUDS EARLY WITH A SURFACE TROUGH TO OUR SOUTH AND NORTHERN STREAM IMPULSE CROSSING THE AREA...OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE FORECAST AREA. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS AND TEENS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT NORTHERN STREAM IMPULSE WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT REMAIN DRY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN CONTINUES WITH A BROAD UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. SEVERAL STORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ON SATURDAY A LOW WILL INTENSIFY AND TRACK UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE SATURDAY NIGHT. THE STORM TRACK HAS COME INTO MORE OF A CONSENSUS...WITH THE LOW EXPECTED TO MOVE DIRECTLY OVER THE 70W/40N BENCHMARK. THIS WILL BRING SNOW THE TO COASTAL AREAS WITH A SHARP CUTOFF TO NOTHING IN THE MOUNTAINS AND INTERIOR. WITH THE LOW WELL OUT TO SEA... COLD AIR WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE ENTIRE COLUMN MEANING IT WILL BE AN ALL SNOW EVENT. AS ALWAYS WITH THESE COASTAL LOWS THERE IS STILL SOME ROOM TO CHANGE. A SHIFT IN TRACK TO THE EAST WOULD BRING ALL OF THE SNOW OUT OF MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE... WHILE A SHIFT TO THE WEST WOULD PUT THE DEFORMATION ZONE FOR HEAVY SNOW GROWTH BACK ONTO LAND LEADING TO HIGHER TOTALS ALONG THE COAST. A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE COAST... ESPECIALLY ALONG PENOBSCOT BAY WHERE THE HIGHEST TOTALS ARE EXPECTED. THE STORM MOVES OUT SUNDAY MORNING WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND DIVE SOUTH MOVING INTO OUR AREA ON MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW TO MOST OF THE AREA. STILL QUITE A BIT OF VARIABILITY IN THE INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM BUT OVERALL EXPECT IT TO RESULT IN SNOW OVER THE REGION. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS. A WEAK WARM FRONT MAY PRODUCE SCT MVFR FRI NIGHT IN MTN SNOW SHOWERS. LONG TERM... A COASTAL LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT DROPPING CONDITIONS TO IFR IN SNOW FOR PSM PWM AND RKD. CON AND AUG MAY DROP TO MVFR WHILE LEB AND HIE WILL BE UNAFFECTED BY THIS STORM. AFTER A RETURN TO VFR THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN MONDAY WITH MVFR IN SHSN FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...QUIET ON THE WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY. INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING WINDS AND SEAS TO SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLD BY EARLY SATURDAY. LONG TERM...A LOW WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE ON SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE AS THE LOW PASSES WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT. GALE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY TOMORROW. THE OUTER WATERS MAY SEE A FEW STORM FORCE GUSTS IF THE LOW CENTER PASSES A BIT CLOSER. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$

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