Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 240240 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 940 PM EST MON FEB 23 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT HAS USHERED IN VERY COLD AIR FOR THE START OF THE WEEK. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MORE HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THIS SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME AS HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS LATE IN THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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935 PM UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT. DID BOOST SNOW AMOUNTS A BIT FOR LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN...ESPECIALLY THE MID COAST. THIS BASED ON LATEST MODEL/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT THE MID COAST MAY NEED A WINTER STORM WATCH LATER TONIGHT. 615 PM UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST. WINDY AND COLD FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS RESULTING IN COLD WIND CHILL VALUES. PREVIOUSLY... THE MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT IS THE WINDS CHILLS...ALTHOUGH LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE BRING WINDS DOWN FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. COASTAL ME AND THE MASS BORDERING SOUTHERN NH COUNTIES WILL BE MARGINAL...WITH THE BEST COMBINATION OF WINDS AND TEMPS HITTING CRITERIA IN THE 9 PM TO 3 AM TIMEFRAME. INLAND AREAS OF ME AND THE REST OF NH WILL BE COLDER...BUT WINDS WILL BE AN ISSUE THERE AS WELL...WITH SHELTERED LOCATIONS LIKELY DECOUPLING LATE EVENING OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER...WHILE EVEN THE LOW HILLTOPS COULD SEE ENOUGH WINDS GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT TO REMAIN IN WIND CHILL CRITERIA. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS BLO ZERO ON THE COAST AND IN SRN NH TO AROUND -20 BELOW...OR LOWER...WHERE DECOUPLING DOES OCCUR...IN THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... EXPECT SUNSHINE TO START TO THE DAY...BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER IN THE MORNING THAN OVERNIGHT...SO WIND CHILLS WILL BE IMPROVING DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LIGHT WINDS IN THE MORNING WILL THEN PICK UP OUT OF THE SW IN THE AFTERNOON...ONLY TO ABOUT 10-15 MPH THOUGH. CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASE FROM THE W IN THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY MID-HIGH CLOUDS...AND COULD SEE LOW CLOUDS MOVING FROM OFFSHORE ALONG THE COAST LATE IN THE DAY OR EVENING. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE TEENS TO NEAR 20...EXPECT AROUND 10 IN THE MOUNTAINS. TUE NIGHT WILL BE PUT IN THE SQUEEZE BETWEEN APPROACHING NRN AND SRN STREAM WAVES...AND WILL SE SOME SNOW SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE MTNS AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE COAST AND IN INTERIOR CENTRAL ME AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS WELL SE AND E OF CAPE COD...WHICH COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW FROM KPWM EAST. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... EARLY IN THE EXTENDED WE/LL BE DEALING WITH NRN STREAM S/WV TROF CROSSING THE AREA. EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHSN WITH THIS FEATURE AS IT MOVES THRU THE FLOW ALOFT. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONVERGED A BIT ON SOME PHASING WITH THE SRN STREAM...PRODUCING AT LEAST AN INVERTED TROF FEATURE AND POSSIBLY MORE OF AN ORGANIZED LOW PRES IN THE GULF OF ME. THIS WILL THROW A LITTLE MORE QPF TOWARDS THE MIDCOAST...WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE EARLY WED. PASSAGE OF UPPER TROF USHERS IN ANOTHER SHOT OF SEASONABLY COLD AIR. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK COLDER THAN NORMAL WX LOOKS TO PREVAIL...BUT AT LEAST IT WILL BE DRY. THEN LATE IN THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK A STRONGER S/WV TROF EJECTS OUT OF THE WRN CONUS UPPER TROF. WITH WSW FLOW PREDOMINANT ALOFT THIS WILL TAKE A MORE INLAND TRACK WITH MILDER THAN RECENT TEMPS. AT THIS TIME THE NRN STREAM APPEARS STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEPING THE SRN STREAM FROM CUTTING TOO FAR N. THIS SCENARIO WOULD KEEP MOST OF THE PCPN FROZEN. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY PREFERRED TO KEEP WX GRIDS EITHER SN OR RA/SN MIX IN THE EXTREME S. && .AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SHORT TERM...THE GUSTY NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVE...WITH MAINLY VFR EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH TUE EVENING. POSSIBLE MVFR IN LOW STRATUS AT ALL BUT KHIE/KLEB LATE TUE NIGHT...AND IFR IN SNOW AT KPWM/KRKD/KAUG. LONG TERM...COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA WED WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHSN TO MUCH OF THE AREA. GENERALLY VFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. EXCEPTIONS WILL BE KHIE IN UPSLOPE SHSN REGIME...AND KRKD WHERE WEAK LOW PRES MAY ENHANCE SNWFL AND PRODUCE SCT IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS EARLY WED. HIGH PRES RETURNS THU...AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO SAT. WED INTO THU...GUSTY WLY WINDS UP TO 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...VERY COLD AIR AND GUSTY WINDS WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE HEAVY FREEZING TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUE MORNING. THE CURRENT GALES WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING...AND WILL LKLY NEED TO CONVERT THEM SCA FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT AND MAYBE INTO EARLY TUE MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS QUIET DOWN DURING THE DAY TUE...BUT SW FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT COULD REQUIRE ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA TUE NIGHT. LONG TERM...EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY WLY FLOW OVER THE WATERS. SCA CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...ESPECIALLY ON THE OUTER WATERS...INTO THU. HIGH PRES WILL ALLOW WINDS AND SEAS TO DIMINISH LATE IN THE WEEK. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MEZ012>014- 018>028. WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MEZ007>009. NH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NHZ004>015. WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NHZ001>003. MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ151-152-154. GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ150.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM UPDATE...EKSTER

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