Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 251944 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 344 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND PUSH A COLD FRONT OFF THE COAST FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... WATER VAPOR AND IR IMAGERY SHOW WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN APPROACHING FROM THE SW. S FLOW TODAY HAS GONE A LONG WAY IN SATURATING THE COLUMN AND SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN IN NEW YORK STATE ALREADY. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED UP NICELY TODAY AND WILL FALL ONLY A FEW DEGREES TONIGHT BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN AS THE WARM FRONT ARRIVES. THE FIRST WAVE OF PRECIPITATION WILL MOSTLY FALL AS RAIN BUT THERE MAY BE SOME SNOW AND SLEET MIXING IN ACROSS THE HIGHEST PEAKS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... PRECIP DIMINISHES AFTER MIDNIGHT AS DRY AIR WORKS IN FROM THE SW BEHIND THE INITIAL CYCLONE. THURSDAY WILL BE WARM... IN THE 40S AND 50S... AND HUMID AS WELL MAKING IT SEEM EVEN WARMER THAN IT IS. THERE WILL ONLY BE A FEW HOURS IN THE MORNING HOURS WITHOUT PRECIP BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND ARRIVES. THE DEEP TROUGH CURRENTLY POSING A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IN THE PLAINS TRANSLATES EAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES BY EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PROMPT SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE JERSEY COAST. A STRONG SPRINGTIME UPPER LEVEL JET WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A HIGHER CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW AS PRECIPITATION INTERACTS WITH THE ANAFRONT SET UP...STILL LESS THAN ADVISORY CRITERIA AND MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIP OFF THE COAST FRIDAY. MODELS SHOW UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE HANGING BACK BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY SO HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FOR SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE THEN. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY. NEXT A COLD FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY WITH THE GFS PUSHING A SURFACE LOW THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF KEEPS MAIN SURFACE LOW TO OUR NORTH IN SOUTHERN CANADA WITH ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPING WELL EAST OF OUR AREA WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SHORT TERM...SCATTERED SHRA/SHSN WILL BRING MVFR CONDITIONS OR LOWER TO THE REGION BEGINNING 00Z TONIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUES AND DOES NOT IMPROVE MUCH BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LONG TERM...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. SOME ISOLATED MVFR POSSIBLE SATURDAY IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...SCA ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING AND WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED FOR WAVES. LONG TERM...SCA WINDS POSSIBLE SATURDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... WARMER WEATHER AND ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN WILL INDUCE SOME RUNOFF IN SOUTHERN LOCATIONS. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME RISES ON SOUTHERN RIVERS. AT THE CURRENT TIME DONT EXPECT ANY ISSUES. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ICE MOVEMENT THOUGH. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ153. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ150>152-154. && $$ HANES/HAWLEY

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