Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 082123 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 423 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016 .SYNOPSIS... INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE WELL SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATER TONIGHT. ANOTHER LOW WILL FORM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND MOVE TOWARD CAPE COD ON TUESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL ACROSS THE REGION. A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND EXIT BY FRIDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MUCH COLDER AIR FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... IMPRESSIVE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL OUT TO SEA CONTINUES TO LOFT MOISTURE TOWARDS THE EASTERN SEABOARD. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE CLOSER TO NEW ENGLAND BY TOMORROW. THESE SURFACE REFLECTIONS AS WELL AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD WAS PROVIDING ENOUGH FORCING FOR ASCENT FOR WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL ACROSS THE REGION. EARLIER THIS MORNING THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD HAD A HARD TIME MOVING NORTHWARD DUE TO EVAPORATION ON THE NORTHERN EDGE. A VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE KEPT ANY SNOW FROM FALLING UNTIL ABOUT 3-4 HOURS AGO. SEVERAL SNOW BANDS HAVE NOW EMERGED ALONG PETTERSSON FRONTOGENESIS MAXIMA. ONE BAND IN PARTICULAR IS CURRENTLY ROTATING NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE NH/ME COASTLINE. TO THE NORTH...ZERO OR SUBZERO DEW POINTS PERSIST WITH NORTH WINDS CONTINUALLY DRAWING DRIER AIR SOUTHWARD. THIS FACT WILL KEEP SNOW EVAPORATING INTO VIRGA FOR A FEW MORE HOURS ACROSS THE NORTH BEFORE TOP DOWN SATURATION OCCURS. WINDS ARE GUSTING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT BEFORE THEY DIMINISH SOMEWHAT. THIS COMBINED WITH A VERY DRY FLUFFY SNOW WILL CREATE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. DUE TO THIS REDUCED VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND TOMORROW MORNING ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST. WINTER STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN EXPANDED DOWN THE COAST TO INCLUDE PORTLAND AND ALSO SOUTHWEST AND INLAND TO INCLUDE ROCKINGHAM COUNTY AND E HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH TO THE UPPER TEENS SOUTH. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS TO HOVER IN THE 6-8 INCH RANGE IN WARNED AREAS THROUGH TUESDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION IS UNDER A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. MOST OF THE SNOW OVER SOUTHERN NH AND SW MAINE WILL FALL BEFORE 6 AM TUESDAY. AS THE BAND FILLS IN DOWNEAST... MORE LOCATIONS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED. LOOKING AT THE FLUFF FACTOR WE COULD EVEN SEE SOME AREAS OF THE MOUNTAINS REQUIRING A WARNING BEFORE ALL IS SAID AND DONE. TUESDAY HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 20S NORTH TO UPPER 20S SOUTH. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF BY MID MORNING ACROSS THE REGION AS THE STRONGEST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES QUICKLY EAST. RESIDUAL TROUGHINESS WILL KEEP FLURRIES AROUND WITH THE CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING FOR THE HIGHEST PEAKS. TOMORROW NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO TONIGHT. CLOUDS STICK AROUND WITH NO FRONT TO SCOUR OUT THE MOISTURE. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... DEEP UPPER TROF SLOWLY PIVOTS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WED AND THU AND EXITS THE REGION ON FRI. WITH THE UPPER TROF THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY SO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY FOR THE MOUNTAINS. ON FRI THE TROF EXITS BUT THEN IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT AS A COLD POLAR UPPER VORTEX DROPS INTO NEW ENGLAND BRINGING BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WITH GUSTY WINDS. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND BITTER COLD CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. STAYED CLOSE TO THE SUPERBLEND MODELS FOR TEMPS BUT RAISED POPS FOR WED/THU PERIOD. && .AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO GRADUALLY LOWERING CEILINGS AND LIGHT SNOW BY EARLY AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATE TODAY. NE WINDS WILL INCREASE AND GUST TO 25 OR 30 KT NEAR THE COAST WITH LOWER SPEEDS INLAND...BEFORE DIMINISHING TONIGHT. AREAS OF MVFR TUESDAY IN SNOW SHOWERS. LONG TERM...UPPER TROF PIVOTS OVER THE REGION THRU THU...WITH AREAS OF SHSN LIKELY. LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY SHSN...AND THEY WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ANY TERMINAL. STRONG COLD FNT APPROACHES THE AREA FRI WITH GUSTY NW WINDS. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD THROUGH TONIGHT. GALES REMAIN IN PLACE AS OCEAN LOW PASSES BY TO OUR SOUTHEAST. CONDITIONS DROP BELOW GALES AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH LINGERING SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS OUTSIDE THE BAYS FOR TUESDAY. LONG TERM...EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS APPEARS LIKELY THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FOR WED AND THU WITH SEAS REMAINING ABOVE 5 FT OVER THE OUTER WATERS BUT SLOWLY SUBSIDING. A STRONG COLD FNT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH GUSTY NW WINDS EXPECTED. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... A 1 TO 1.5 FOOT STORM SURGE WILL COMBINE WITH HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AND BUILDING SEAS OF 10 TO 15 FEET TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR COASTAL YORK...ROCKINGHAM...AND CUMBERLAND COUNTIES FOR THIS EVENINGS HIGH TIDE AROUND 11 PM. FOR TOMORROW MORNINGS HIGH TIDE AROUND 11 AM...A HIGHER TIDE REQUIRED A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING. BOTH OF THESE TIDES MAY LEAD TO MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OR SPLASH-OVER ALONG THE COASTS OF YORK...ROCKINGHAM...AND CUMBERLAND COUNTIES. SEE CFWGYX FOR MORE INFORMATION. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TUESDAY FOR MEZ007>009- 012>014-018>022-025>028. COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MEZ023- 024. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TUESDAY FOR MEZ023-024. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MEZ023-024. NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NHZ003>011- 015. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TUESDAY FOR NHZ001-002. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NHZ012>014. COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR NHZ014. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NHZ014. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ150>154. && $$ NEAR TERM...HANES SHORT TERM...HANES LONG TERM...MARINE AVIATION...HANES MARINE...HANES/MARINE TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HANES

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