Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 260543 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 1243 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL SPREAD A FEW CLOUDS INTO THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT AS IT TRACKS WELL TO OUR SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FOR FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME AS HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS OFFSHORE LATE IN THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... 1235 AM...MINOR CHANGES FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE TO INGEST THE CURRENT MESONET INTO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS. PREV DISC... 920 PM UPDATE...VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST AS IT REMAINS ON TRACK. A COLD...MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT IS ON TAP WITH SOME INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE SOUTH LATE. 625 PM UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST. JUST A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES BASED ON LATEST TRENDS ON AN OTHERWISE TRANQUIL EVENING. PREVIOUSLY... FRESH ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS CROSSING THE WRN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA AT THIS HOUR. IN THE HIGH TERRAIN A FEW SCATTERED SHSN ARE POSSIBLE...BUT MOISTURE IS MEAGER AND PCPN IS MOSTLY INSTABILITY DRIVEN. LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD ALLOW ANY SHSN TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AFTER DARK. CAA WORKING THRU THE REGION OVERNIGHT WILL USHER IN COLDER AIR. HOWEVER...MECHANICAL MIXING SHOULD PREVENT THE MAJORITY OF LOCATIONS FROM DECOUPLING...THUS AVOIDING LOW TEMPS SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER THAN GUIDANCE. GIVEN THE FORECAST FOR AT LEAST SOME LOW LEVEL MIXING OVERNIGHT...KEPT CLOSE TO 2 M TEMPS FOR OVERNIGHT TEMP TRENDS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/... SW/V TROF ACROSS ERN TX WILL LIFT NEWD AND OUT TO SEA S OF NEW ENGLAND THU. BETWEEN THE ARCTIC HIGH TO THE N AND LOW PRES PASSING TO THE S...AN AREA OF SATURATED SN GROWTH ZONE WILL RESIDE OVER THE SRN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...MAINLY FROM CHESHIRE THRU ROCKINGHAM COUNTIES. A LITTLE LIFT THRU THIS ZONE EARLY IN THE DAY COULD PRODUCE SOME SHSN. HOWEVER DRY AIR MASS IS IN PLACE AND ANY PCPN SHOULD BE LIGHT AND LITTLE...IF ANY...ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THU NIGHT HIGH PRES TRIES TO EDGE FURTHER OVER THE REGION. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL TRY AND ALIGN ALONG NRN ZONES FOR THE OVERNIGHT. THIS COULD SET UP MORE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS THERE. WOULD NOT RULE OUT ACTUAL TEMPS BEING COLDER THAN MODEL FORECASTS FOR THE NRN VALLEYS. REGARDLESS...TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION FRIDAY. SOME CLOUDS FROM THIS SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN AREAS EARLY FRIDAY SHOULD MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION DURING THE DAY. FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD AND EVENTUALLY OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP US DRY...BUT IT WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SNOW WILL COME SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AT THIS POINT IN TIME IT LOOKS TO BE A WEAK SYSTEM AS A TRIPLE POINT WITH A WEAK LOW ON IT CROSSES THE REGION. AFTER A WEAK HIGH CROSSES THE AREA LATER MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH MID WEEK WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THRU THU NIGHT. LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR KHIE THIS EVENING...AS SCATTERED SHSN TRAVERSE THE HIGH TERRAIN. LONG TERM...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A PERIOD OF SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...SCA CONTINUES THRU THU MORNING FOR THE OCEAN WATERS. TEMPS FALLING BACK INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS COUPLED WITH WINDS AND WAVES WILL RESULT IN SOME MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY TONIGHT. AN ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL WATERS THRU MORNING. LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE WATERS WILL KEEP WINDS AND WAVES BELOW SCA LEVELS. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ150>154. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ150-152-154. && $$ ES

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