Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 190435 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 1235 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE EAST COAST SATURDAY ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND WILL PROVIDE A ROUND OF SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
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1225 AM...JUST TWEAKING THE MINS FOR THIS MORNING A BIT BASED ON CURRENT OBS. IN THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS...WHERE MOST OB SITES ARE REPORTING CALM OR VERY LIGHT WINDS TEMPS ARE GENERALLY IN THE 30-35 RANGE ATTM...AND MOST SPOTS SHOULD GET INTO THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30. THE COASTAL PLAIN IS A BIT MORE PROBLEMATIC AS STILL SEEING MANY SITES WITH WINDS OF AROUND 4-8 MPH /OR MORE/...AND TEMPS IN THE 40S. SOME SHELTERED SPOTS...WHICH HAVE DECOUPLED...WILL FROST OUT EASILY...BUT MAY NOT SEE QUITE THE COVERAGE IN THE ADVISORY AREA...UNLESS THE GRADIENT SUDDENLY RELAXES. PREV DISC: STRONG CAA WILL BE WORKING INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING BEHIND A COLD FRONT. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR AFTER SUNSET AND TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET SHORTLY AFTER...GIVING US OUR COLDEST TEMPERATURES THIS SEASON AND MOST LIKELY ENDING THE GROWING SEASON FOR ALL OF OUR NORTHERN FORECAST ZONES. COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE WEAKER. IN THE SOUTH AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVE IN THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AND THIS WILL KEEP WINDS UP OVERNIGHT. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT LOW LYING SHELTERED LOCATIONS ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN WILL SEE A FROST TONIGHT...HOWEVER MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE SPARED...SO JUST WENT WITH FROST ADVISORIES IN THESE AREAS. COASTAL ZONES AND INTERIOR ROCKINGHAM COUNTY SHOULD ESCAPE SEEING FROST AS WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONGEST IN THESE LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD TOMORROW AND ALTHOUGH WE WILL HAVE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...IT IS STILL GOING TO BE QUITE COOL SINCE MOST AREAS WILL START OFF IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFF SHORE ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP. T850 WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AND WILL BE A SOLID 10C WARMER THAN THEY WERE FRIDAY MORNING. FOG WILL MOST LIKELY DEVELOP IN THE VALLEYS ON FRIDAY NIGHT UNDER THE CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGH PRES MOVES OFF THE COAST SAT AND SAT NIGHT ALLOWING A RETURN WARMER SOUTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. SCT SHWRS WILL DEVELOP IN THE MTNS SUN AFTN AND SPREAD SOUTH OVER THE REST OF THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD AND THEN ALONG THIS COLD FRONT...NOT A LOT OF QPF WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK A RETURN TO COOLER AND MAINLY FAIR WX EXCEPT MAYBE A FEW SHWRS IN THE MTNS. BY MIDWEEK AND BEYOND A MAJOR BLOCKING HIGH PATTERN DEVELOPS ALLOWING THE BEGINNING OF A VERY LONG NICE STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SHORT TERM...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR FOG CONDITIONS IN THE VALLEYS...DROPPING HIE AND LEB DOWN TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR THROUGH SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME VLY FOG POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT. SOME MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE SUN THROUGH SUN NIGHT IN SCT SHRA AHEAD IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WITH SCAS EXPECTED FOR ALL THE OUTER WATERS. THINGS WILL START TO CALM DOWN BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING AND NO FURTHER FLAGS ARE EXPECTED. LONG TERM...SW FLOW AHEAD OF COLD FRONT COULD BRING WINDS AND SEAS TO SCA CRITERIA SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ007>009- 012>014. FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ018>022. NH...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NHZ001>006. FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NHZ007>010. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ150- 152-154.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...CEMPA SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION... MARINE...

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