Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 172229 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 629 PM EDT WED AUG 17 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Weak high pressure builds across the region tonight. A weak upper level trough may bring a few brief showers mainly to the north and mountains Thursday. A large ridge of high pressure brings quiet conditions Thursday night through Sunday with seasonably warm temperatures. A strong cold front will approach New England from the west Monday bringing unsettled weather to the region. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
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630PM UPDATE... Have made a few adjustments to the forecast for the remainder of the evening based on latest observed conditions. Clouds have quickly begun to dissipate and this should continue over the next several hours though additional cloud cover should move in from the northwest by morning. Also zeroed out the precipitation chances until morning when an approaching shortwave trough could trigger a few showers near the Canadian border. ORIGINAL DISCUSSION... A weak ridge of high pressure builds across the region tonight bringing much drier air to the area. The gusty afternoon winds will quickly become light by early evening as the northwest gradient winds move off to the east with the exiting maritimes low pressure system. Used a blend of models for low temps tonight.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/... A weak moisture starved short wave will move through the upper northwest flow over the northeast Thursday and may allow a few light showers or sprinkles mainly across the mountains and foothills. Meanwhile most southern areas will see a partly sunny day. Temperatures will be warm as guidance in good agreement. Highs will range from the mid 70s in the mountains with clouds while southern areas should reach the mid to upper 80s. High pressure continues settled over the area Thursday night allowing another comfortable night. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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ECMWF and GFS Models are in good agreement through this period with the Canadian Model being an outlier in developing a meso low Sunday out ahead of an approaching cold front. For now that has been discounted but model trends should be monitored for the second half of the weekend. With that in mind, high pressure along the east coast will result in seasonably warm weather through Sunday. Dewpoints will rise into the mid and upper 60s by Sunday and Monday. Expect dry weather through Saturday with a chance of a few showers Sunday. As a cold front approaches the shower and thunderstorm threat will increase late Sunday and Monday. High pressure will build in behind this front Tuesday and Wednesday resulting in dry conditions with near normal temperatures.
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&& .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Short Term...VFR conditions through Thursday night. Long Term... VFR to MVFR conditions Friday and Saturday will give way to areas of IFR conditions in showers and thunderstorms later Sunday into Monday. && .MARINE...
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Short Term... Winds will quickly diminish this evening. High pressure crests over the waters Thurs and Thurs night with light winds and seas. Long Term... Wind and waves below SCA Friday and Saturday. Waves may briefly approach SCA levels late Sunday into Monday as southerly winds increase ahead of an approaching cold front.
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&& .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...None.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...Kimble SHORT TERM...Marine LONG TERM...Lulofs

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