Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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054 FXUS61 KGYX 151810 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 210 PM EDT FRI MAY 15 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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A WEAK WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. THE WARM FRONT WILL STALL OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT OVER THE GULF OF MAINE AND WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE CROSSING SOUTHERN QUEBEC MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER PORTIONS OF THE ATMOSPHERE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY MOISTEN OVERNIGHT...EVENTUALLY SUFFICIENTLY TO BRING THE CHANCE FOR A SHOWER TO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT. IT WILL BE MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT DESPITE THE LOW DEW POINTS DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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THE GREATEST THREAT OF A SHOWE WILL MAINLY BE SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT AND BRIEF. A VERY LOW CHANCE SHOWER MAY LINTER INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THE 12Z MESOSCALE MODEL SUITE SHOWS LAST OF THE SHOWERS TO MOVE EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 06Z. IT WILL BE MILDER ONCE AGAIN WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY BETWEEN 45 AND 55 DEGREES.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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SHOWERS WILL BE COMING TO AN END OVER WESTERN MAINE SUNDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE MOVE OFFSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH AND SHOULD MAKE FOR A NICE REST OF THE DAY AS WELL AS WELL AS A SUNNY START FOR MONDAY. EVENTUALLY CLOUDS WILL CREEP BACK IN LATER MONDAY AS ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY... EXITING THE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING. CURRENTLY IT LOOKS LIKE THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. AFTER THIS THE WEEK LOOKS VERY QUIET WEATHER WISE WITH A MOSTLY DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL JUST BE A WIND SHIFT FOR MUCH OF THE REGION BUT IT MAY BRING A SHOWER OR TWO TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 ON SUNDAY BEFORE DROPPING BACK INTO THE 60S FOR MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. NEXT FRIDAY WE WILL WARM BACK UP INTO THE 70S ONCE AGAIN. FROST REALLY ONLY THREATENS IN THE NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND A FRONTAL PASSAGE.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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SHORT TERM...VFR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING SATURDAY. LONG TERM...POSSIBLE MVFR WITH ANY REMAINING SHOWERS SUNDAY MORNING. MVFR OR LOWER CEILINGS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY IN SHOWERS. FOG LIKELY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
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&& .MARINE...
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SHORT TERM...A WARM FRONT WILL BUILD TOWARDS THE COASTAL WATERS. HOWEVER WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. LONG TERM...A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT/ WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS SHOULD STAY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL AS WAVES.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER...
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RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN IN THE 20S AND 30S THIS EVENING BEFORE RECOVERING OVERNIGHT UNDER LIGHT WINDS. SHOWERS AND AN INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL HELP TO MOISTEN FUELS AND EASE FIRE DANGER.
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&& .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ CANNON/HANES

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