Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 260719 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 319 AM EDT FRI SEP 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AND WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL STALL OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE IN FROM THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTH MIDWEEK AND COULD MOVE NORTHWARD AND AFFECT OUR REGION WITH SOME RAINFALL. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY/... MORNING FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY 8-10 AM. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH WILL PULL AWAY TO THE EAST TODAY. SHOULD SEE A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND ONTARIO WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. JUST ABOUT EVERYONE WILL REACH THE 70S TODAY WITH A SEABREEZE LIKELY AT THE COAST. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SATURDAY/... WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA EXPECT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. HOWEVER... WITH DECENT MOISTURE AROUND DO NOT EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO GET TOO COLD. INSTEAD EXPECT FOG TO FORM ESPECIALLY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. EVEN WARMER WEATHER EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS THE WARMTH FROM THE UPPER RIDGE MAKES ITS PRESENCE FELT. EXPECT MID TO UPPER 70S AND A FEW 80 DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE. WILL LIKELY SEE A SEABREEZE AT THE COAST AGAIN. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT ANOMALOUSLY WARM WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARM WESTERLY FLOW TO DOMINATE THROUGH SUNDAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE UP TO +3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS FROM CLIMO. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A VERY WARM DAY ON SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS ANYWHERE FROM 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER...THE SUMMER-LIKE CONDITIONS WILL COME TO AN END AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS WILL ACT TO COOL US DOWN BACK INTO THE 60S BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. A DEEP-LAYER E-NE WIND WILL DEVELOP LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT...AND WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE INTO TUESDAY WITH MUCH LOWER TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT FLY IN THE OINTMENT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL STORM TO AFFECT THE REGION MIDWEEK. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED NORTHWARD WITH THE RAIN SHIELD...AND CONSENSUS WOULD BRING SOME RAINFALL TO SOUTHEASTERN ZONES SOMETIME WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE BLOCKY PATTERN IN PLACE...WE WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A COMPLETELY DRY SCENARIO PAN OUT...JUST LIKE WHAT WE SAW ON THURSDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR SURE. && .AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SHORT TERM...VFR EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR VALLEY FOG AT NIGHT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. FOG IS HIGHLY LIKELY AT LEBANON AND WHITEFIELD AND FAIRLY LIKELY AT CONCORD. COULD ALSO SEE PATCHY FOG AT AUGUSTA. CANNOT RULE IT OUT AT THE OTHER LOCATIONS EITHER BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH. LONG TERM...VFR THROUGH SUNDAY. IFR/LIFR CEILINGS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND PERSISTING THROUGH TUESDAY. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM... WIND FLOW WILL BE DOMINATED BY SEABREEZES THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE AREA. DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT MARINE HAZARDS. LONG TERM...SCA`S MAY BE NEEDED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY IN STIFFENING NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...KIMBLE SHORT TERM...KIMBLE LONG TERM...EKSTER

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