Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 281132 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 632 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AN INTENSE OCEAN STORM WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN FOLLOW FOR LATE TODAY INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING A GENERAL SNOWFALL TO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH ANOTHER STORM HEADING TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 625 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO INGEST CURRENT MESONET INTO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS. PREV DISC... AT 07Z...A 990 MILLIBAR OCEAN LOW WAS CENTERED WELL EAST OF PORTSMOUTH. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR MOSAIC SHOWED A WEAKENING BAND OF LIGHT...AND OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN MAINE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AND DISSIPATE THIS MORNING AS THE OCEAN STORM CONTINUES TO SLIDE FURTHER OFFSHORE AND WEAKEN. WITH DECREASING PRECIPITATION AND WINDS...WILL ALLOW THE REMAINING WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES TO BE DROPPED WITH THE NEW MORNING PACKAGE. WE`LL SEE GRADUAL CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST BY AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE HIGH CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BUILDS EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE 20S ELSEWHERE. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... CLEAR AND COLD TONIGHT UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE WITH FRESH SNOWPACK AND DECOUPLING SURFACE WINDS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR TEN BELOW IN THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND ZERO NEAR THE COAST AND THE URBAN CENTERS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. AFTER A CHILLY START THURSDAY MORNING...SUNSHINE AND A DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH WILL BOOST AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE 20S...WITH A FEW 30 DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE OVER SEACOAST NEW HAMPSHIRE. WE`LL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS OVER WESTERN SECTIONS LATE IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... A LONG WAVE TROUGH IS BECOMING ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF STRONG SHORT WAVES WILL DIG INTO THE BASE OF THE LONG WAVE TROF AND BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED THURSDAY NIGHT DEVELOPING A SURFACE AND UPPER LOW SOME ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE EXITIING INTO THE MARITIMES BY SATURDAY MORNING. MODELS HAVE COME TOGETHER AND GENERALLY AGREE ON SCENERIO BUT SOMEWHAT DIFFERENT ON INTENSITIES. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW TO SPREAD ACROSS NH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN INTO ME BY FRIDAY MORNING. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT. BY LATER IN THE DAY THE STORM DEEPENS OFF THE COAST AND SOME MORE SIGNIFICANT WRAPAROUND SNOW MAY SPREAD FAR ENOUGH WEST TO REACH THE MIDCOAST. THE SYSTEM IS PROGRESSIVE SO WILL NOT HAVE TOO MUCH TIME TO PICK UP A LOT OF MOISTURE. IT DOES APPEAR THAT SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND IT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. THE SYSTEM EXITS INTO THE MARITIMES BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH CLEARING AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ON GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. SUNDAY WILL BE PLEASANT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. ON MONDAY A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM MAY BE IN THE MAKING AS A SYSTEM MOVING EAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ALLOWING THE GULF TO OPEN AND THEN TRIES TO PHASE WITH ENERGY FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM. A GOOD DEAL OF QPF WILL BE WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE TRACK WILL BE CRITICAL AS USUAL. WE WILL BE WATCHING HOW THE MODELS HANDLE THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS FOR CLARITY. OVERALL STAYED CLOSE TO THE SUPERBLEND MODELS FOR THE EXTENDED GRIDS. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SHORT TERM...LINGERING IFR AND MVFR EARLY IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...BECOMING VFR THROUGHOUT. LONG TERM...CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND MOSTLY IFR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT IN SNOW. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR OVER THE WEEKEND AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...A FREEZING SPRAY ADV IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS MORNING. GALES REMAIN UP FOR THE WATERS THIS MORNING...THEN SMALL CRAFT EXPECTED FOR THE BALANCE OF TODAY. LONG TERM...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT ON NORTHWEST WINDS. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ150>154. GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ150>154. && $$ ES

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