Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 230822 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 322 AM EST MON FEB 23 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...USHERING EXTREMELY COLD AIR INTO THE AREA FOR THE START OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MORE HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THIS SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. THE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT WILL MOVE WELL OFFSHORE BY MORNING AS SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST. DOWNSLOPING NW WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY TODAY AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGHOUT THE DAY WILL ONLY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY WILL OCCUR EARLY THIS MORNING. BY LATER TODAY DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS WILL DEVELOP DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF THE FALLING TEMPERATURES AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS. HEADLINE WIND CHILL WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS OF MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE BEGINNING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. USED THE BLENDED MODEL TREND AND NOT THE DIURNAL TREND TO CLEARLY SHOW THE FALLING TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
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TONIGHT THE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CRESTS OVER THE REGION ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT BY LATER TONIGHT. SKIES WILL ALSO BE MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT SO SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE EXTREMELY COLD AND THE WIND CHILL WARNINGS WILL CONTINUE ALONG WITH WIND CHILL ADVISORIES THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR ALL SOUTHERN AREAS. STAYED CLOSE TO THE BLNDED MODEL GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THE WESTERN RIDGE RETROGRADES A BIT WITH TIME AND THE DOWNSTREAM TROUGH BECOMES BROADER WITH LESS AMPLITUDE. BY LATE IN THE PERIOD...WE TRANSITION TO A MILDER WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING TO NEAR AVERAGE. HOWEVER...IN THE INTERIM WE STILL HAVE SEVERAL MORE DAYS OF WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTEND WITH. SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVES SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH A SURFACE LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT INTRODUCING A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR TO THE REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. COMPLICATING MATTERS...A SECONDARY LOW WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE AND COLD BRING A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW TO OUR EASTERN MAINE ZONES BEFORE RACING OFF INTO THE MARITIMES. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THIS SYSTEM THURSDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE ARRIVES IN THE SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY TIMEFRAME WITH INDICATIONS THAT WARMER AIR COULD RESULT IN A MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENT FOR THE FORECAST AREA.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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SHORT TERM...CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR. NW WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY TO AROUND 25 KTS BY MID MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT. LONG TERM... WED...AREAS OF MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS...WITH LCL IFR CONDS PSBL VCNTY OF KRKD AND KAUG IN SNOW.
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&& .MARINE...
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SHORT TERM...GALE WARNING OVER THE OUTER WATERS FOR GUSTY NW WINDS UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING WITH SCA`S IN THE BAYS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE OUTER WATERS. GIVEN THE EXTENT OF ICE COVER IN THE BAYS ONLY ISSUED A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FOR THEM. LONG TERM... WED...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. THU...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.
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&& .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MEZ018>021-023>028. WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MEZ012>014-022. WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MEZ007>009. NH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NHZ006-008>010-012>015. WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NHZ004-005-007-011. WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NHZ001>003. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ151-153. FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ151-153. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154. GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150-152-154.
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