Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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930 FXUS61 KGYX 150830 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 330 AM EST Sun Jan 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure builds in today and Monday, then shifts east on Tuesday. Low pressure crosses the region Tuesday night into Wednesday night and will bring a mix of snow and rain to the area, with the possibility of a period of freezing rain, mainly inland. High pressure builds in at the end of the week, with above normal temperatures.
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&& .NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
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High pressure moves in from the west today with a little more wind than yesterday. Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer as well, with some areas approaching freezing.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND MONDAY/...
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High pressure moves across the area tonight which should provide for good radiational cooling conditions. Some cloud cover especially in northern areas may prevent ideal cooling conditions. Dewpoints in the single digits to teens today suggest lows should bottom out roughly in that range tonight, with some below zero temperatures in the cold spots. As high pressure moves to the southeast on Monday, a westerly flow will commence across the area with temperatures warming a few more degrees, generally into the 30s.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Chance of high impact weather: Low to moderate. Models are trending colder with storm system Tuesday night into Wednesday, and could see several inches of snow before a change to rain or freezing rain. No real changes to the overall hemispheric pattern from previous model runs, and the split flow over the west coast will continue to keep the coldest air locked up in the arctic circle and provide a lot of Pacific air to the southern two thirds of North America into next weekend, with active short wave pattern over the northern tier of CONUS eventually transitioning to ridging over eastern North America. Monday night will start of cold but dry with some radiational cooling possible and lows from around 10 in the N to the low 20s near the coast. Based on latest runs Tuesday should remain dry as well although approaching system will bring in some high clouds at least during the the afternoon. Highs will rise into upper 30s N to the upper 30s S. There`s a meteorological adage that even in warm winters northern New England can get a lot of snow. So far, this has not been the case, but the latest round of models runs show that in warmer patterns we can still get snow, as the 00Z suite of models keep the trough further south and holds stronger high pressure to our north and east. This would hold the precip off until Tuesday night, and probably keep the p-type skewed toward snow, except at the coast most of the time. The best chance for any FZRA would be in interior southern NH and perhaps inland areas of the ME coastal plain, but based on current model runs this is looking like more of a snow to rain event Tuesday night into Wednesday. Inverted trough may linger precip into Wednesday night, and passage of upper level low could produce some SHRASN in the mountains on Thursday, but high should build in by Friday with a gradual warning trend.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Short Term...VFR conditions today through Monday with a mostly clear sky and winds generally 10 KT or less. Long Term... IFR Tuesday night into Wednesday in SN and RA. There is a chance for some FZRA late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. MVFR likely to linger into Wednesday night with improvement to VFR on Thursday.
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&& .MARINE...
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Short Term...Northwest winds today will strengthen as a result of a stronger pressure gradient on the eastern side of high pressure building into the area. Small Craft Advisory is posted, but winds are likely to be marginal and confidence is not very high that 25KT wind gusts will materialize. Since there is still a chance that these winds could occur, will maintain the advisory. Long Term... There is a chance for SCA winds/seas Tuesday night into Wednesday, with 5+ ft seas lingering into Thursday as low pressure passes south.
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&& .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ150- 152-154.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...Kimble SHORT TERM...Kimble LONG TERM...Cempa

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