Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 241116 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 616 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2015 .SYNOPSIS... ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MORE HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THIS SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME AS HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS LATE IN THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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6 AM UPDATE: WINDS HAVE DECOUPLED AND ARE CALM WHILE SKIES ARE CLEAR THROUGHOUT THE REGION SO HAVE DROPPED ALL WIND CHILL WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES. ACTUAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN DANGEROUSLY COLD AND THIS MAY GO DOWN AS THE COLDEST MORNING OF THE WINTER. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WITH CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING RADIATIONAL COOLING AND TEMPERATURES TO FALL THROUGH THE FLOOR EARLY THIS MORNING. HAVE CONTINUED THE WIND CHILL WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TO ALIGN WITH NEIGHBORING FORECAST OFFICES EVEN THOUGH ARE WINDS HAVE GONE CALM. THESE WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 6AM. TODAY TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RECOVER WITH THE DEEP ARCTIC AIR MASS IN PLACE. SOME WAA ALOFT WILL ALLOW MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO SPILL ACROSS THE REGION IN THE LATE MORNING OR AFTERNOON. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME LOW OCEAN CLOUDS DEVELOPING AND MOVING INTO COASTAL AREAS LATER IN THE DAY. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE SINGLE NUMBERS TO MID TEENS...THIS MAKES SENSE DUE TO THE DEEP MORNING INVERSIONS THAT WILL NEED TO BE MIXED OUT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING WE NEED TO KEEP A SHARP EYE ON A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE THAT ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL ALLOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL LOW THAT WILL FORM AND EXTEND AN INVERTED (NORLUN) TROUGH NORTHWEST INTO THE MIDCOAST AREA. MODELS HAVE GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THIS BUT WITH DIFFERING AMOUNTS OF QPF. FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE AN ADVISORY EVENT WITH 3-6 INCHES ALONG THE MIDCOAST SO DID NOT NEED TO ISSUE ANY WINTER STORM WATCHES FOR POTENTIAL HIGHER AMOUNTS. FURTHER WEST AND SOUTH AMOUNTS WILL DROP OFF SHARPLY. THE SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITS INTO THE MARITIMES BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH CLEARING SKIES AND ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR IN ITS WAKE. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THE WESTERN RIDGE RETROGRADES A BIT WITH TIME AND THE DOWNSTREAM TROUGH BECOMES BROADER WITH LESS AMPLITUDE. BY LATE IN THE PERIOD...WE TRANSITION TO A MILDER WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING TO NEAR AVERAGE. HOWEVER...IN THE INTERIM WE STILL HAVE SEVERAL MORE DAYS OF WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTEND WITH. THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY WILL INTRODUCE A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR TO THE REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE AND QUIET WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE ARRIVES IN THE SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY TIMEFRAME...WITH INDICATIONS THAT WARMER AIR COULD RESULT IN A MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENT FOR THE FORECAST AREA. && .AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SHORT TERM...VFR EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH TUE EVENING. POSSIBLE MVFR IN LOW STRATUS AT ALL BUT KHIE/KLEB LATE TONIGHT...AND IFR IN SNOW AT KPWM/KRKD/KAUG LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. LONG TERM... NO SIGNIFICANT OPERATIONAL IMPACTS EXPECTED BECAUSE OF WEATHER. && .MARINE...
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SHORT TERM... 6AM UPDATE: HAVE DROPPED THE SCA OVER THE EASTERN MOST OUTER WATERS AS WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED. ALSO HAVE DROPPED THE HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNINGS DUE TO THE WINDS BECOMING LIGHT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED SO DROPPED THE GALES AND ONLY KEPT A SCA UP FOR THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. CONTINUED THE HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNINGS UNTIL 9AM. TONIGHT A SCA FOR SEAS AND THEN INCREASING SOUTH WINDS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITH THE NEXT FAST MOVING TROUGH AND COASTAL LOW. WEDNESDAY WINDS SHIFT TO WEST AND REMAIN IN SCA CRITERIA. LONG TERM... THU...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.
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&& .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...NONE.
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&& $$

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