Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 202052 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 352 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH COLD AIR SETTLING INTO PLACE ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND..AS A WEAK WAVE CLIPS THE NORTHERN AREAS. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OUT OF THE MIDWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY...PUSHING A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...BRING SOME RAIN TO THE REGION...WITH A CHANCE IT WILL START AS SOME FREEZING RAIN IN THE VALLEYS. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE COULD BRING SOME PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A COLD FRONT IS MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THERE IS WIDESPREAD RADAR ECHOS... THE ONLY SCATTERED REPORTS OF SNOW ACCUMULATION. AN ADDITIONAL CONCERN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS IS THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SQUALLS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD AIR. MOISTURE FROM THE LONG LASTING LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT IN NEW YORK IS GETTING ENTRAINED INTO THE FLOW AND IS HELPING TO GENERATE ISOLATED HEAVY SNOW OVER VERMONT. THESE SNOW SQUALLS WILL MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... OVERNIGHT THE COLD AIR MOVES INTO PLACE ALOFT WITH TEMPERATURES DIPPING INTO THE TEENS. IN THE NORTH CLOUD COVER FROM UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS...ALTHOUGH COLDER TEMPS IN ISOLATED VALLEYS ARE POSSIBLE. THE BIG CONCERN FOR FRIDAY WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. ACROSS THE COASTAL PLANE WINDS WILL GUST INTO THE 20MPH RANGE. A FEW ISOLATED GUSTS TO 35 TO 40MPH ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST, HOWEVER THIS WILL STILL BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. BY FRIDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AS THE COLD AIR SHIFTS EASTWARDS AND A HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY BE SLIGHTLY COLDER FRIDAY NIGHT AS CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR THE VALLEYS TO DECOUPLE AND DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... 500 MB +PNA PATTERN BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARM UP ACROSS THE REGION BECOMING QUITE NOTICEABLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AS 850MB TEMPS LOOK TO SURPASS +10C ON MONDAY...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS AND SOME RAIN THAT DAY WILL KEEP THINGS FROM WARMING UP TOO MUCH. 12Z GFS AND EURO WANT TO DEEPEN THE CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH AND PUP UP THE WEST COAST RIDGE MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK...AND DEVELOP AN OFFSHORE LOW. THEY DIFFER ON INTENSITY AND TIMING /BY ABOUT 24 HOURS AT THIS POINT/ BUT WORTH NOTING SINCE IT IS DURING HOLIDAY/TRAVEL PERIOD. WEAK LOW TRACKS JUST N OF THE INTL BORDER ON SAT AND COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHSN IN THE N ZONES ESPECIALLY LATE SAT AND SAT NIGHT...BUT SHOULD STAY DRY IN THE SRN ZONES WITH HIGHS A LITTLE WARMER THAN FRIDAY...BUT STILL UNLIKELY TO BREAK 40 IN THE S AND FREEZING IN THE N. WINDS SHIFT MORE W-SW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND TEMPS WILL NOT FALL OFF MUCH SAT NIGHT. THE WARMER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER ON SUNDAY AND HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 10F WARMER THAN SATURDAY...IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S. 500MB CLOSED LOW DEEPENS OVER THE N CENTRAL CONUS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING NE INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VLY ON MONDAY. WAA TO THE EAST OF THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION SUN NIGHT...WITH WARM AIR IN PLACE ALOFT. QUESTION IS HOW COLD WILL IT GET SUN NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE PRECIP? MOST PLACES EXCEPT FOR THE COLD SPOTS IN THE MTNS SHOULD SEE TEMPS STAY ABV FREEZING OVERNIGHT...BUT COULD SEE A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IN SOME OF THE MTN VLYS LATE SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON. ON MON...WILL BREAK INTO THE WARM SECTOR ALOFT...BUT IT REMAINSTO BE SEEN IF WE CAN MIX ANY OF THIS DOWN TO THE SFC. STILL...EVEN WITH CLOUDS...SW FLOW SHOULD BRING IN WARM ENOUGH AIR AT THE SFC TO PUSH TEMPS ABOVE 50 IN MANY SPOTS...AND DEPENDING ON IF THERE ARE ANY PROLONGED BREAKS OF SUN...COULD SEE A FEW SPOTS MAKE A RUN AT 60. THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF SHRA ON MON IN ADVANCE OF COLD FROPA LATE IN THE DAY. WEAK RIDGING ON TUE SHOULD PROVIDE A MAINLY DRY DAY...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS...BUT DOWNSLOPE WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS ABV NORMAL. && .AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SHORT TERM...HIE WILL SEE MVFR IN SNOW THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE CEILINGS WILL BE VFR WITH NW WINDS GUSTING TO 25KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LONG TERM...POTENTIAL FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN RA AND STRATUS SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM... A FEW ISOLATED GUSTS TO 35KTS THROUGH THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AS COLD AIR ADVECTION SETS IN. FRIDAY MAY SEE WINDS INCREASE TO GALE FORCE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS... AND HAVE ISSUED A GALE WATCH. LONG TERM...SW FLOW COULD PICK UP ON SUN TO SCA LVLS AND PERSIST INTO MONDAY. SCA TO LOW GALES POSSIBLE IN W-NW FLOW BEHIND A COLD FRONT MON NIGHT INTO TUE. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ151-153. GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CEMPA/CURTIS NEAR TERM...CURTIS SHORT TERM...CURTIS LONG TERM...CEMPA AVIATION...CEMPA/CURTIS MARINE...CEMPA/CURTIS

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