Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 231907 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 307 PM EDT MON MAR 23 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH TUESDAY...SHIFTING OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS HIGH PRES BUILDS TOWARDS THE REGION...REMAINING GUSTY NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER DARK. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN SLIGHT W OF THE AREA...SO BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL BE FEATURED ACROSS NH AND INTO ADJACENT ME. THIS SHOULD YIELD ANOTHER NIGHT OF READINGS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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HIGH PRES DRIFTS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TUE AND TUE NIGHT...WITH FAIR WX BUT WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN TODAY...BUT STILL FALL 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGH PRES MORE OR LESS OVERHEAD TUE NIGHT WILL PROMOTE ANOTHER COLD NIGHT...THOUGH SOME WARMING ALOFT WILL KEEP MORE READINGS IN THE TEENS.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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PERSISTENT +PNA PATTERN AT 500MB STILL HOLDS THRU THE EXTENDED...BUT SHOWS SOME SIGNS OF WEAKENING THE UPSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST AND ALASKA. UNFORTUNATELY...THE DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING OVER THE ERN PACIFIC AND EUROPE SHOW LITTLE SIGN OF BREAKING DOWN..AND THIS WILL ALLOW SURGES OF COLD AIR TO FUNNEL OUT OF THE YUKON AND NW TERRITORIES AND POOL JUST TO OUR N OVER NRN QUEBEC AND GREENLAND...KEEPING US...MOSTLY IN THE BASE OF THE NO AMERICAN COLD POOL TROUGH. A BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE BLO NORMAL AIR WILL COME IN AS SFC HIGH EXITS WED AND WARM FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE SW BEHIND THE RIDGE EXITING TO THE EAST. WED WILL GET CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS AND START OUT SUNNY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON. COULD SEE A FEW SHRASN IN THE CT VLY OR NH MTNS...BUT BULK OF PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL WED NIGHT WHEN COLD FRONT MOVES THRU. TEMPS WILL DROP OFF EARLY WED NIGHT AND THEN BEGIN TO RISE...AND MAY NOT GET BLO FREEZING IN MANY PLACES ON THE COASTAL PLAIN...SO SOME LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED HERE. THE RAIN FALLING INTO THE SNOWPACK ALONG WITH INCREASING LOW LVL MOISTURE ON SW FLOW WILL LKLY FORM SOME FOG AS WELL. IN THE FOOTHILLS AND MTNS...WILL LKLY SEE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW TO START...AND THIS COULD MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO FZRA/IP FOR A SHORT PERIOD BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN EARLY THU MORNING. OVERALL QPF LOOK LIGHT WITH THE WAA...ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH. ON THU WEAK LOW PRES DEVELOPS TO OUR SW ALONG THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE JUST TO OUT NW. THIS LOW WILL HOLD THE FRONT BACK ON THU AND KEEP US IN THE WARM SECTOR...AT LEAST ABV THE SFC ON THU. DESPITE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS THRU THE DAY...HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. ALTHOUGH SOME SHRA ARE POSSIBLE THU MORNING...THE STEADIER RAIN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTERNOON AND EVE. THIS LOOKS TO PRODUCER HIGHER QPF...BUT STILL A FEW TENTHS EITHER SIDE OF A HALF INCH EXPECTED...WHICH SHOULD ONLY PRODUCE SOME RISES ON THE RIVERS. STILL...COMBINED WITH THE SNOWMELT FROM THE WARMTH...THIS WILL LKLY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME MOVEMENT OF RIVER ICE...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE THU NIGHT OR FRI MORNING...SO IT WILL PROB BE A MILD NIGHT WITH SOME FOG ONCE AGAIN. THE RAIN SHOULD WIND DOWN EARLY FRIDAY...WITH DOWNSLOPE PROVIDING ANOTHER DAY NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL AND SOME CLEARING. THE COLDER AIR SPILLS IN AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER IT LOOKS TO BE DRY AND FAIR. TEMPS WILL BE RUNNING 5-10 F BLO NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND...NOT AS COLD AS THE CURRENT COLD SPELL.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU TUE NIGHT. ANY REMAINING GUSTY NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING. LONG TERM...VFR WED...WITH EXTENDED PERIOD OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN/FOG WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT...POSSIBLY DOWN TO LIFR AT TIMES.
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&& .MARINE...
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SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THRU TONIGHT. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS WITH HIGH PRES IN CONTROL OF THE WATERS. LONG TERM...SCA WILL LKLY BE NEEDED IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT.
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&& .CLIMATE...
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THE RECORD LOW FOR MARCH 24 IS 11 DEGREES SET JUST LAST YEAR. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THIS RECORD COULD BE TIED OR BROKEN. RECORDS AT CONCORD ARE MUCH COLDER (-10 IN 1875) AND APPEAR UNLIKELY TO BE BROKEN.
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&& .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...NONE.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...LEGRO SHORT TERM...LEGRO LONG TERM...CEMPA AVIATION...CEMPA/LEGRO MARINE...CEMPA/LEGRO

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