Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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FXUS61 KGYX 131912
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
312 PM EDT Fri Oct 13 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure centered over the area will move offshore tonight.
A cold front will approach from the west later tonight before
dropping south into northern New England on Saturday and
stalling. The front will retreat north as a warm front early
Sunday allowing a warm and humid southwest flow to develop over
the area. Low pressure will track east through southern Canada
on Sunday and drive a trailing cold front through the region
Sunday night. Canadian high pressure with cooler and dry weather
follows for Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Surface high pressure centered over the region will move east
tonight allowing a light south to southwest flow to develop.
Some low clouds and stratus may develop later tonight within
this flow. Temps will be not as cold tonight due to developing
clouds and the light southerly flow that develops. Used a blend
of models which puts overnight lows in the mid 40s in the
mountains and lower 50s along the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Saturday - a weak front over southern Canada drifts south into
northern and central Maine bringing with it clouds and
scattered showers in the mountains. Meanwhile, over extreme
southeast NH and southwest ME the chance of some light showers
exist due to a weak low level surface wave of low pressure passing
across southern New England. Those extreme southern areas of the
forecast area will be on the northern fringe of the system.
High temps will be near seasonal levels in the 60s.

By late Saturday and Saturday night the frontal system over
northern areas will move back to the north as a warm front as
the flow aloft becomes more southwest and strengthens. Also any
showers over extreme southern areas comes to an end as the weak
surface wave passing to the south moves east out to sea. Models
are in good agreement on these scenarios.

By Sat night dewpoints will be on the rise passing over the
cooler ocean waters and will develop areas of fog over some
southwest coastal areas but especially along the mid coast.
Further inland not expecting much if any fog due to a more
southwest flow. Temps will be mild Sat night with lows in the
50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A warm front will move northward through the CWA on Sunday.
There may be some morning low clouds, fog, and perhaps some
patchy light drizzle. However, as the warm sector takes hold by
later in the morning, the sun should come out, at least
partially. Temps will warm into the 70s except eastern and some
central zones. There will also be an increasing southwesterly
LLJ during the day, with some mixing allowing for 25-30 MPH
gusts in spots by afternoon. Not out of the question that a few
places gust up to 40 mph for a short time if mixing is deeper
than forecast. By late afternoon, showers associated with a cold
front should reach the CT river valley. The cold front will
sweep across the CWA during the evening hours Sunday with a band
of showers, heaviest in the west. At this time, it looks
like instability will be too weak for thunder, but will watch
trends. However, with low level jet of about 50 kt between 2 and
3 kft, convective showers may bring down some locally strong
wind gusts if the low levels don`t decouple too much (which they
shouldn`t).

Much cooler and drier air moves in for Monday and Tuesday with
high pressure. However, after that, high return flow around
southeast ridging should allow us to warm up to well above
normal levels again with dry weather Wed-Fri (and perhaps
through next weekend).

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Short Term...VFR this evening. Some coastal stratus is possible
later tonight. MVFR Conditions expected Sat as stratus
develops/spreads from s-n on the developing warm moist s-sw
flow. By Sat night IFR conditions develop in low stratus along
the coast and mostly MVFR inland as moist marine layer thickens
and tries to push inland.

Long Term...IFR conditions possible in fog and low stratus
Sunday morning (mainly coast) before lifting to VFR mid to late
morning (except perhaps mid coast). Gusty SW winds perhaps up to
G30 kt Sunday afternoon in advance of cold front. MVFR
conditions to local IFR possible Sunday evening in showers with
cold front. VFR returns later Sunday night and looks to last
through Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...A light south to southwest flow expected tonight
through Saturday night. Conditions to remain below SCA criteria.

Long Term...Southwesterly winds increase Sunday ahead of cold
front and likely peak over the waters Sunday evening where a few
gusts around 35 KT will be possible along with building seas.
Winds shift NW in wake of cold front Sunday night with
diminishing gusts by later Monday afternoon.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...Marine
SHORT TERM...Marine
LONG TERM...Ekster




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