Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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FXUS61 KGYX 151525
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1025 AM EST Sun Jan 15 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds in today and Monday, then shifts east on
Tuesday. Low pressure crosses the region Tuesday night into
Wednesday night and will bring a mix of snow and rain to the area,
with the possibility of a period of freezing rain, mainly inland.
High pressure builds in at the end of the week, with above
normal temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Update...
Have updated the forecast based on current observations and latest
set of mesoscale models. Very good upslope snow signature
currently on radar with visibilities dropping down to near 1 nm at
times. Have upped pops and placed some accumulations in the
mountains this morning. Snow showers should taper off this
afternoon.

Temperatures are much colder this morning over southern areas
compared to northern areas due to the cloud cover up north last
night. Readings should top out between 25 and 35 degrees this
afternoon as a moderating trend begins.

Prev Disc...
High pressure moves in from the west today with a
little more wind than yesterday. Temperatures will be a few
degrees warmer as well, with some areas approaching freezing.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
High pressure moves across the area tonight which should provide
for good radiational cooling conditions. Some cloud cover
especially in northern areas may prevent ideal cooling conditions.
Dewpoints in the single digits to teens today suggest lows should
bottom out roughly in that range tonight, with some below zero
temperatures in the cold spots. As high pressure moves to the
southeast on Monday, a westerly flow will commence across the area
with temperatures warming a few more degrees, generally into the
30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Chance of high impact weather: Low to moderate. Models are
trending colder with storm system Tuesday night into Wednesday,
and could see several inches of snow before a change to rain or
freezing rain.

No real changes to the overall hemispheric pattern from previous
model runs, and the split flow over the west coast will continue
to keep the coldest air locked up in the arctic circle and provide
a lot of Pacific air to the southern two thirds of North America into
next weekend, with active short wave pattern over the northern
tier of CONUS eventually transitioning to ridging over eastern
North America.

Monday night will start of cold but dry with some radiational
cooling possible and lows from around 10 in the N to the low 20s
near the coast. Based on latest runs Tuesday should remain dry as
well although approaching system will bring in some high clouds at
least during the the afternoon. Highs will rise into upper 30s N
to the upper 30s S.

There`s a meteorological adage that even in warm winters northern
New England can get a lot of snow. So far, this has not been the
case, but the latest round of models runs show that in warmer
patterns we can still get snow, as the 00Z suite of models keep
the trough further south and holds stronger high pressure to our
north and east. This would hold the precip off until Tuesday night,
and probably keep the p-type skewed toward snow, except at the
coast most of the time. The best chance for any FZRA would be in
interior southern NH and perhaps inland areas of the ME coastal
plain, but based on current model runs this is looking like more
of a snow to rain event Tuesday night into Wednesday. Inverted
trough may linger precip into Wednesday night, and passage of
upper level low could produce some SHRASN in the mountains on
Thursday, but high should build in by Friday with a gradual
warning trend.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Short Term...VFR conditions today through Monday with a mostly
clear sky and winds generally 10 KT or less.


Long Term...
IFR Tuesday night into Wednesday in SN and RA. There is a chance
for some FZRA late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. MVFR
likely to linger into Wednesday night with improvement to VFR on
Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Northwest winds today will strengthen as a result of
a stronger pressure gradient on the eastern side of high pressure
building into the area. Small Craft Advisory is posted, but winds
are likely to be marginal and confidence is not very high that
25KT wind gusts will materialize. Since there is still a chance
that these winds could occur, will maintain the advisory.

Long Term...
There is a chance for SCA winds/seas Tuesday night into Wednesday,
with 5+ ft seas lingering into Thursday as low pressure passes
south.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...Cannon
SHORT TERM...Cannon
LONG TERM...Schwibs



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