Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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676
FXUS61 KGYX 051354
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
854 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK QUICKLY NORTHEAST ALONG A STATIONARY
FRONT TODAY. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SNOW SHIELD WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL EXTEND ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE WITH SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS
FOR TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT A COASTAL STORM AFFECTS THE REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
9AM UPDATE...
HAVE FURTHER ADJUSTED POP AND SNOW AMOUNT AND EXPANDED WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES INTO THE FOOTHILLS ZONES OF MAINE. UPGRADED TO
WINTER STORM WARNING ALONG THE MIDCOAST CONSISTENT WITH NEIGHBORS
TO OUR EAST AND LATEST STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL FORECASTS. SOME
CONCERN ON TIMING OF THE ENDING OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA AS SNOW
COULD LAST JUST A BIT LONGER THAN FORECAST. BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS AND ADJUST AS NEEDED THROUGH THE MORNING.

830AM UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED TO ISSUE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR ROCKINGHAM COUNTY
AND EXTEND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO CHESHIRE COUNTY. HEAVIER
SNOWFALL RATES MOVING NORTHWARD OUT OF MASSACHUSETTS SHOULD ADD TO
THE INCH OR TWO THAT HAS ALREADY FALLEN THERE. BAND OF SNOW NOTED
ON RADAR FURTHER INLAND FROM CHESHIRE COUNTY TO LAKE WINNIPESAUKEE INTO
THE FOOTHILLS OF MAINE HAS ALSO BEEN PRODUCING SNOWFALL RATES OF
AN INCH PER HOUR AND COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED SNOW TOTALS OF 7
INCHES. WILL HANDLE THIS WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AS THIS
BAND MAY BEGIN MOVING SOON.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
S/WV TROF APPROACHING THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL LIFT SURFACE
LOW RAPIDLY NORTHEAST TODAY. A SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION IS
EXPANDING TO OUR SOUTH AND IS STARTING TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE NOW. PRECIPITATIONS IS INITIALLY FALLING AS RAIN BUT
SHOULD QUICKLY CHANGE TO SNOW AS EVAPORATIVE COOLING TAKES PLACE.
SHOULD SEE A QUICK 3 TO 6 INCH SNOWFALL WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS
FARTHER INLAND. SNOW SHOULD END BY EARLY AFTERNOON IN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND BY MID AFTERNOON IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. STAYED CLOSE TO ECMWF FOR PRECIPITATION WITH 0.60 TO 0.70
ALONG THE COAST. EXPECT SOME BANDING OF PRECIPITATION AND CANT
RULE OUT A FEW LOCALIZED AREAS WHERE SNOWFALL COMES IN ABOVE 6
INCHES. MOVED PRECIPITATION SHIELD INLAND FARTHER THAN PREVIOUS
FORECAST PACKAGE AND EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
INLAND ONE SET OF ZONES. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS LIKELY IN THE 7 TO
11 TIME FRAME IN SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES QUICKLY ALONG THE NOVA SCOTIA COAST THIS
EVENING AND OUT OF THE PICTURE. EXPECT CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE TEENS FOR THE MOST PART. SATURDAY A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS ALL AGREE ON AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION SUNDAY. THATS WHERE AGREEMENT ENDS. THE EVOLUTION OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE QUITE COMPLEX AND
WILL DEPEND ON INTENSITY OF SEVERAL STRONG SHORT WAVES ROTATING
AROUND THE BASE OF A DIGGING LONG WAVE TROF WHICH REACHES THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST BY TUE. AT THIS POINT CONSIDERING HOW LARGE THE
SYSTEM WILL BE...EXPECT SNOWFALL ACROSS THE CWA LATE MON THROUGH
TUE. THE AMOUNTS WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE EVOLUTION AND THEN
TRACK OF ANY COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT. THE SYSTEM MAY BECOME
VERTICALLY STACKED BY LATE TUE WHICH WOULD SLOW THE SYSTEM MORE
THAN MODELS INDICATE.

DUE TO LARGE AMOUNTS OF UNCERTAINTY OF EVOLUTION WILL NEED TO
SIMPLY WATCH LATEST TRENDS OF MODELS. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THIS
SYSTEM TO BECOME A SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM LATE MON THROUGH TUE FOR
MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE...ESPECIALLY ALONG COASTAL AREAS.

ONCE THE SYSTEM EXITS BY TUE NIGHT A COLD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. SEVERAL SHORT WAVES MOVING
THROUGH THIS FLOW WILL BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL AS PER BLEND OF MODELS
SUGGEST. FOR TUE/WED LOWERED THE MAX TEMPS FROM SUPERBLEND
GUIDANCE DUE TO COLD HIGH TO NORTH LOCKING COLD AIR IN PLACE ON
NORTH DRAINAGE WINDS COMBINED WITH SNOWFALL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO IFR THIS MORNING WITH VFR
RETURNING BY AFTERNOON. VFR EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

LONG TERM...COULD SEE SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN
THE MOUNTAINS SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN. OTHERWISE IT SHOULD BE VFR
ACROSS THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING UP THE COAST WILL LIKELY
BRING LOWER CEILINGS AND SNOWFALL MON NIGHT INTO TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. EXPECT
WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW GALE CRITERIA BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS
CLOSELY DURING THE DAY.

LONG TERM...A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS SUNDAY
BRINGING STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN CROSSES THE AREA MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS UP THE
EAST COAST AND TOWARD CAPE COD TUESDAY WITH GALES POSSIBLE TUE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MEZ012-018>020-023>025.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ013-
     014-021-022-026.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ027-
     028.
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NHZ004-006-008>012-015.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NHZ013-
     014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE... KIMBLE



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