Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000
FXUS61 KGYX 021430
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
930 AM EST Fri Dec 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will gradually exit into the maritimes by tonight.
In the wake of this disturbance, northwesterly flow will continue
through the start of the weekend with snow showers in the northern
mountains. A weak weather disturbance may bring a few snow showers
to the region Monday. Otherwise, cold high pressure will settle in
for the start of the new work week. A snow and rain mixture may
enter the region late in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...

930 AM...For this ESTF made minor adjustments to near term grids
to reflect current satellite trends and the 14z mesonet.

Prev disc...
6am update... just minor adjustment to current temperatures.

A steady pressure gradient has set up from southwest
to northeast across the area in the wake of yesterdays low
departing to the maritimes. This will keep west to northwesterly
flow and through the day. Skies will be mostly clear in the
coastal plain with clouds in the northern mountains. Upslope snow
showers will continue through the day along the Canadian border.

&&

.SHORT TERM /5 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
Overnight the flow will turn more northwesterly as the short wave
moves through the region. This will increase the cross barrier
flow with more upslope snow showers. The most favored locations
will see another 2-3 inches overnight. The same shortwave will
bring just enough moisture to spread clouds back across the entire
region overnight keeping temperatures from dropping too far. Lows
will remain in the low 30`s near the coast and low 20`s in the
north. Saturday the short wave departs and cold air advection
sets in under continued northwesterly flow. Temperatures will peak
early in the morning and then drop through nightfall as the colder
air moves in.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A persistent northwesterly gradient continues Saturday night into
Sunday morning as low pressure is slow to exit east of the
Canadian Maritimes. This may trigger a few upslope flurries in the
north and mountains as the last of the upsloping conditions end.

A weak upper level disturbance will pass through the region on
Monday, mostly bringing a few scattered snow showers to the
region. Precipitation will be limited as the lower portion of
atmosphere will remain relatively dry.

Cold, high pressure becomes situated over New England for Tuesday.
This will be accompanied by light winds.

Models then diverge by Wednesday, with confidence levels not
overly high at this point. The 00Z GFS splits two systems, one to
our north and one to our south through Wednesday night before
rapid cyclogenesis occurs over upstate New York on Thursday.

In contrast, the Euro keeps most of the energy associated with a
coastal system well to our south on Wednesday before low pressure
tracks over Ohio Thursday. In this scenario, strong southernly
winds would allow for moisture to rapidly move north from the Mid
Atlantic region as the deep surface and upper level trough remains
well to our west, over the Great Lakes region.

In either event, there may be a mixture of rain and snow over the
region. By the weekend, a large area of very cold air may sweep
across the region as low pressure continues to rapidly develop
over Canada.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Short Term...MVFR conditions for HIE through Saturday as upslope
flow continues. LEB will also see MVFR through this morning but
scatter out as the winds shift to more northerly.

Long Term...MVFR conditions are expected in the mountains into
Sunday morning with VFR conditions expected downwind from the
higher terrain. A period of MVFR conditions is possible Monday in
a little light snow - but probability is pretty low. VFR returns
Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Have extended the SCA through tonight. Wave height
around 5-6 feet for the outer waters will continue through today
before decreasing tonight as the northwesterly wind wave dominates
over the swell from the departing system. Winds will continue to
gust 25-30kts with an increase expected Saturday as cold air
advection develops. SCA will likely need to be extended through
the weekend. Due to the offshore flow... have not included the
bays for this SCA.

Long Term...A period of SCA conditions are possible on the ocean
waters Saturday night - possibly into early Sunday.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$
ES



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