Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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FXUS61 KGYX 270440
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1240 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND MORE HUMID SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRIDAY AND MOVES OFF THE COAST
OVER THE WEEKEND ALLOWING A WARM AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW TO
RETURN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

1235 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT THE CURRENT MESONET IN 1ST
PERIOD GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
.UPDATE...
MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT MESOSCALE TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING MUGGY AS THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES. MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH FROM THE
OPEN GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE ARRIVING AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL BECOME VERY HIGH. INCREASING SHEAR IN THE AFTERNOON
WILL ALSO BECOME AN ISSUE AS A SHORT WAVE ROTATING NORTHEAST
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE TOWARD NEW ENGLAND WILL
ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FIRST TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST AND
THEN MOVE EAST INTO OUR REGION DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE CONVECTION AND SOME OF THE TSTORMS MAY APPROACH
SEVERE LIMITS IN THE LATTER PART OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING. AT SOME POINT IF SOME TRAINING OF SOME OF THE CELLS OCCURS
LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY BECOME AN ISSUE. USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS
FOR TEMPS AND POPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL BE
CRITICAL TO THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THUNDERSTORMS. MODEL
CONSENSUS IS FOR AN EARLIER FRONTAL PASSAGE THAN CLIMATOLOGY
PREFERS FOR A ROUND OF WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...A WARM
AND HUMID START TO THE DAY SHOULD GIVE THE AREA A HEAD START ON
MODERATE INSTABILITY THAT SHOULD BE IN PLACE BY LATE MORNING. WITH
INSTABILITY...FORCING FOR ASCENT...AND WIND SHEAR INCREASING JUST
AHEAD OF THE SFC FRONT...A ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY ON THE COASTAL PLAIN. A FEW COULD BE SEVERE.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH
A RETURN OF VERY WARM AND MORE HUMID WEATHER EXPECTED BY LATE
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE MODELS AND LATEST ENSEMBLE DATA ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PUSHING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS
COULD BE OUR BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD MUCH NEEDED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES LATER
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING. SOME COASTAL AND EVEN
INLAND STRATUS AS WELL AS FOG NEAR KRKD AND EAST OF KPWM EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT LOWERING CONDITIONS TO MVFR.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WED AFTERNOON INTO WED NIGHT LOCALLY
LOWERING CONDITIONS TO IFR.


LONG TERM...LOCAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
INTO WED NIGHT. SEAS OVER THE OUTER WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 3-6
FT DUE TO THE PERSISTENT SOUTH FLOW SO A SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED. FOR
TONIGHT INTO WED WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA BUT WILL
INCREASE WED NIGHT.

LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY...AND THEN
AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND HUMID AIR WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED THRU THE REST
OF THE WEEK...AND FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOWER THAN IT
HAS BEEN.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$
ES


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