Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000
FXUS61 KGYX 060409
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1209 AM EDT SUN JUL 6 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES NEW ENGLAND FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THEN
PUSHES TO OUR SOUTH AND OUT TO SEA ON SUNDAY. THE HIGH MOVES WELL
OUT TO SEA AS LOW PRESSURE AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM SLOWLY APPROACH
FROM CANADA SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM STALLS OVER THE
REGION FOR THE START OF THE WEEK BEFORE FINALLY CLEARING OUT ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

1205 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT SATELLITE TREND AS WELL AS
THE CURRENT MESONET.

PREV DISC...
1040 PM...SEEING A FEW CLOUDS AND SOME RADAR ECHOES MOVING
VERY QUICKLY SE INTO THE NRN ZONES BEFORE EVAPORATING IN THE
DOWNSLOPE. THERE IS A WEAK AND SHEARING WAVE IN THE NW FLOW AT
500MB...WHICH SHEARS OUT IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. ALSO...GIVEN THE
DRY AIR NEAR THE SFC...HARD TO SEE ANY RAIN REACHING THE GROUND.
OTHERWISE A MAINLY CLEAR NIGHT WITH LOW RH. PERSISTENT NW
FLOW...ESPECIALLY AT THE BOUNDARY LYR...WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM
REALLY FALLING...SO LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S OVERNIGHT...WITH
READINGS NEAR 60 SW ME COAST AND ROCKINGHAM COUNTY.

810 PM...THE SURF ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...ALSO ADJUSTED
SKY/TEMP/WIND GRIDS A BIT BASED ON CURRENT OBS. WINDS HAVE COME
DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE LAST FEW HOURS AND WILL REMAIN WEST AT
AROUND 10 PH THRU THE NIGHT.

PREVIOUSLY...EXTRATROPICAL ARTHUR WILL MOVE THRU THE MARITIMES
WHILE HIGH PRES APPROACHES NEW ENGLAND FROM THE W TONIGHT. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW WINDS TO DROP OFF TONIGHT AND SKIES TO CONT TO CLEAR
OUT. SHOULD BE A COOL PLEASANT NIGHT WITH LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS. MIN
TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 50S WITH MAYBE SOME 40S IN THE COLDER SPOTS IN
THE N/MT ZONES. USED A BLEND OF MODELS AND MOS GUIDANCE FOR THE
NEAR TERM FCST.

WILL CONT THE HIGH SURF ADV THRU 8 PM THIS EVE. SEAS STILL ROUGH
OVER THE WATERS SO WILL LEAVE HEADLINE AS IS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
THE HIGH SLIDES TO OUR S AND PUSHES OUT TO SEA ON SUNDAY SETTING
UP A W SW FLOW. WINDS PICK UP AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS GIVING US A
BREEZY DAY...BUT NOT NEARLY AS WINDY AS SATURDAY. WARMER AIR
MOVES IN AND SHOULD PUSH MAX TEMPS INTO THE 70S N AND LOWER 80S S
EXCEPT THE SW FLOW OFF THE OCEAN WILL KEEP THE MID COAST A LITTLE
COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S ON SUNDAY. THE WARMING SW FLOW
CONTINUES SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH STAYS WELL OUT TO SEA AND A LOW
AND SFC FRONT APPROACH VERY SLOWLY FROM THE NW. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
50S N AND AROUND 60 S SUNDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW THAT WAS NW
SATURDAY NIGHT BACKS TO THE W SUNDAY WITH A WEAK IMPULSE MOVING
THRU...THEN BECOMES WSW WITH ANOTHER IMPULSE MOVING THRU SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL SPREAD SOME CLOUDS SE INTO THE FCST AREA WITH ONLY
A SLGT CHC OF -SHRA OVER OUR MOST NRN AREAS. USED A BLEND OF
MODELS AND MOS GUIDANCE FOR THE SHORT TERM FCST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE WEEK WILL START OUT SUNNY AND WARM AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
CRESTS OVER THE REGION. A TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES LATE ON MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ON
TUESDAY AS THE LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS EAST.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH GOOD
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH A JET STREAK ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SOME STORMS COULD APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS.

WEDNESDAY THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST LEAVING A COLD FRONT ALONG
THE COAST. ONCE AGAIN THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COAST WHERE THE UPPER LEVEL JET MAX REMAINS ALOFT  AND
MOIST ON SHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE.

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS
OVERHEAD. A HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD BACK IN ON FRIDAY ALLOWING THINGS
TO CLEAR OUT FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...VFR THRU THE SHORT TERM FCST
PERIOD AS HIGH PRES APPROACHES FROM THE W TONIGHT THEN MOVES OUT TO
OUR S ON SUNDAY. SOME CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE NW SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH APPROACHING FRONT AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES BUT STILL
EXPECTING CIG/VSBY TO REMAIN VFR. VERY GUSTY NW WINDS LET UP
OVERNIGHT THEN WINDS PICK UP FROM THE W SW ON SUNDAY.

LONG TERM... CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THE
START OF THE WEEK WITH PERIODS OF MVFR IN THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...AT 810 PM...WINDS DROPPED OFF QUICKLY THIS EVE AND
SEAS ARE FOLLOWING. ALL WINDS NOW BLO SCA LVLS...AS WELL AS SEAS
AT ALL BUOYS IN THE GYS WATERS. THERE MAY BE SOME 5 FOOT SEAS
LINGERING IN OPEN WATERS S OF MATINICUS THIS EVE...BUT THIS WILL
DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT.

LONG TERM...
SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR THE OUTER WATERS MONDAY IN SW
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.... WITH WAVES RISING TO 5 TO 7 FEET BY
LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EASTERN SECTIONS.. FAVORABLE FLOW FOR
PENOBSCOT BAY SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHER WAVES EXTENDING NORTHWARDS
TOWARDS ISLEBORO.... WITH SCA LIKELY FOR THAT ZONE AS WELL. CASCO
BAY SHOULD REMAIN SHELTERED FROM THE WINDS AND WAVES AND BELOW SCA
CRITERIA. WINDS DECREASE BY 00Z WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
ES




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