Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 231339 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 939 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COASTAL LOW WILL BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY DRIFT OFF INTO THE MARITIMES FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION BY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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925 AM...I MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS TO REFLECT THE CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AS WELL AS MESONET. I RAISED 6 HOUR QPF AMOUNTS ALONG A LINE FROM ROUGHLY THE KPSM - KCON AREA. THE STORM WARNING FOR THE COASTAL WATERS WAS REPLACED WITH A GALE WARNING FOR THIS UPDATE. TIDE DEPARTURE IS APPROACHING 1.5 FT AHEAD OF THE 11 AM HIGH TIDE AT THE PORTLAND GAGE...WITH 15 FOOT SEAS BEING OBSERVED SOUTH OF CASCO BAY...WE WILL SEE SPLASHOVER AND SOME BEACH EROSION WITH THIS HIGH TIDE ALONG THE COAST SOUTH OF PORTLAND. PREV DISC... STRONG LOW PRESSURE CENTERED SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TODAY. LONG CONVEYOR BELT OF MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP RAINFALL INTO OUR NECK OF THE WOODS TODAY. AS OF 0730Z...THE MAIN BAND OF RAINFALL ALONG WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER IS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. THIS BAND WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY AND AFFECT MUCH OF THE CWA WITH A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL. ANOTHER AREA OF RAINFALL OFF THE MID COAST OF MAINE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL WRAP BACK WESTWARD ONTO THE MAINLAND THIS MORNING AS WELL. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE BEST POSITIVE THETA-E ADVECTION. ISOLATED THUNDER APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND COASTAL ZONES AS MARGINAL INSTABILITY DEVELOPS AS DEEP THETA-E MAX IMPINGES ON THE AREA...MAINLY THIS MORNING. THEREAFTER...THE PRECIPITATION WILL PROBABLY BECOME LIGHTER AND MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE. WE EXPECT ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL TODAY...WHICH COMBINED WITH THE RAINFALL FROM THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...MAY CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED RIVER FLOODING ISSUES. POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS EXPECTED. THEREFORE...THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT. HOWEVER...SERIOUS FLOODING PROBLEMS ARE NOT FORESEEN AT THIS TIME. IT WILL REMAIN WINDY TODAY. CURRENT WIND SPEEDS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT SUPPORT A WIND ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES ARE LIKELY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LOW LEVEL JET AND MIXING HEIGHTS EARLY THIS MORNING AND MAY DECIDE TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA IF IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL MIX BETTER.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE WELL EAST OF CAPE COD TONIGHT. IT WILL REMAIN WINDY AND SHOWERY...BUT THE STEADIEST PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE ENDED BY EVENING. OVERALL...NOT REALLY A PLEASANT NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND A RAW NORTH WIND. A BETTER DAY IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER AWAY. SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ONLY CHANCY...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE PLENTIFUL. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... FRI NIGHT WILL SEE UPPER LOW PRES TRANSITIONING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. S/WV RIDGING BRIEFLY CROSSES THE AREA EARLY SAT...ALLOWING FOR SOME DRYING AND PERHAPS PARTIAL CLEARING. THIS IS SHORT LIVED THOUGH...AS A NRN STREAM S/WV TROF RACES OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA AND DRIVES A COLD FNT ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS EARLY SUN...BEFORE DOWNSLOPING FLOW DRIES OUT THE COASTAL PLAIN. COOL...MOIST...CYCLONIC FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW WILL KEEP THE MTNS LOCKED IN NW UPSLOPE INTO MON HOWEVER. EXPECT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO LINGER THRU SUN THERE...WITH SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. TROF FINALLY BEGINS TO LIFT OUT MON...WITH RIDGING SETTING UP IN ITS WAKE. THE REGION WILL TRANSITION TO SW RETURN FLOW...AND SEE SOME SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS AS A RESULT. && .AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SHORT TERM...ELY LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO PUMP SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING. THIS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND...WITH RNFL HEAVY AT TIMES MOVING S TO N THRU THE TERMINALS ALONG THE COAST. FARTHER INLAND AND KHIE AND KLEB RNFL WILL BE LIGHTER...AND SIGNIFICANT PERIODS OF IFR ARE NOT EXPECTED. THAT LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALSO LEAD TO LLWS ALONG THE COAST AND IMMEDIATELY INLAND THRU THE MID MORNING HOURS. IN ADDITION SOME NELY SFC GUSTS TO 40 KTS ARE POSSIBLE AS HEAVY SHRA LIFT NWD. AS BAND OF PCPN LIFTS NWD THIS AFTERNOON EVENTUALLY IFR WILL TRANSITION TO MVFR CIGS. LONG TERM...SHOULD SEE A GENERAL IMPROVEMENT SAT TO VFR CONDITIONS...EXCEPT FOR THE MTNS WHERE SOME LINGERING MVFR IS POSSIBLE. LATE SAT INTO SUN A LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL DRIVE A COLD FNT THRU NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL BRING A ROUND OF MVFR WITH SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE MTNS. UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES MVFR CIGS IN THE MTNS THRU SUN. HIGH PRES TAKES CONTROL OF THE REGION MON...WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...STORM WARNINGS FOR THE OCEAN WATERS UNTIL MIDDAY AS LOW LEVEL JET ALLOW FOR NORTHERLY GUSTS AROUND 50 KT. GALES FOR THE BAYS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY WANE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN SAT INTO SUN AS A QUICK MOVING LOW PRES AND ASSOCIATED COLD FNT CROSS THE WATERS. && .HYDROLOGY... TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME LOCATIONS IN EXCESS OF 5 INCHES. WHILE THIS RAIN WILL NOT FALL QUICKLY ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING... THE CUMULATIVE EFFECT OF THIS MUCH RAIN OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS MAY BE ENOUGH TO BRING SOME STREAMS AND SMALLER RIVERS INTO FLOOD. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY...WHEN THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS LIKELY TO OCCUR. WE DO EXPECT URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING TODAY WITH THE ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES THAT ARE EXPECTED. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... POCKETS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND SPLASHOVER WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AROUND THE TIME OF THE MIDDAY HIGH TIDE. TIDES ARE ASTRONOMICALLY LOW AND MAJOR PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014- 018>028. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ023>028. NH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NHZ004-006-008>010-013- 014. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NHZ014. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150>154.
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&& $$ SCHWIBS/CANNON

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